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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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Seems a pretty straightforward setup for back half Jan, rebuild source region in western Canada late next week/weekend, likely leaking cold into the northast at times with GOA ridging (-EPO) beyond.  Chances for coastals during transition periods, and perhaps a more active southern stream from MLK and after.

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this would have been an "ice storm" opportunity if the fall rates were more - tho could argue the length of the event is challenged, too.  There's an established drain/ageo flow ongoing that is just about perfectly balanced against melt layer overrunning aloft.  

We're glazed to perhaps .1" ... shrub and twigs starting to do that day glow look.  Car windows are mottled and there's icicles forming along the edge of the awnings.   But the puddles in the salted streets are barely patterning rings.  Rad is a bit more robust coming, moving in from the west but it may not last long.

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Yeah my whole driveway was a sheet of ice. My daughter is of the age now at 12 where she wants to walk the bus stop on own ( I'm perfectly fine with that unless it's raining real hard ). But, this morning she took a few steps outside, turned around and asked me if I could drive her to the bus. But of course I couldn't wait with her. I had to just drop her off. She said she had it from there LOL

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59 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The big ridge out west and trough to the northern gulf will happen, but we have to watch the western Atlantic for too much ridging—speaking for the southern 2/3 of the forum…

Ya I don't like the ridging and the lack of 50/50 for that time period of interest 15/16th.. 50/50 shows up after that period which is why I like post Jan 18 better.. 

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2 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

34. Rain and fog. Looking forward to a warmish, sunny day tomorrow.

Yeah, tomorrow has a soupcon of being a nape day ... It's hard to do that in January, because the sun's just too darn feeble.  Need to breach the solar transition entry times ( first week of Feb) and then the affect is much more noticeable.   

Otherwise, feeble west wind at +5C in the 980 MB level on the NAM grid, with < 30% RH in the cloud column is going to feel pretty amazing to those that don't suffer the negative SAD form of that disorder.  haha.    Anyway acclimation/seasonal relativity is going to make that 48F stroll across parking lots, while the sun's feeble warmth is still warm nonetheless, feel even warmer and more invigorating.

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12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya I don't like the ridging and the lack of 50/50 for that time period of interest 15/16th.. 50/50 shows up after that period which is why I like post Jan 18 better.. 

Yeah, that's the unfortunate Miller A trade off...  the pattern foot doesn't come with that.  

The 50/50 thing is the Miller B or variant thereof. It's need for it circulates cold into the antecedent environment ...typically waiting to the last second to then scoot out of the way and make room for the coastal coming. 

Miller A's tend to be progressive.  Heck they're really more like needle thread storms, their just arriving from a steeper azimuth.  The difference is, since they are coming from a huge heat and moisture source, they tend to just be bigger and by default affecting a larger area.  But they do tend to be progressive for lacking blocking vortex in the Maritime of Canada.

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