The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs is north and juicy. Pummels @Bob Chill to RIC.

Yeah, Chill Special on this run.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs is north and juicy. Pummels @Bob Chill to RIC.

Don't worry it's still coming more North. We still have 18Z and 0Z to get juicy. 

[Paleocene]

looks nice for RIC

[NorthArlington101]

kuchie clown

[Bob Chill]

I don't have a lot of friends today except for my bestie... 12z gfs

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

CMC also gets an inch up to DC.  The timing has also moved forward rush hour could be messy.  

[Scraff]

Well unless the Euro bumps norther and juicer, my bar is set at car-topper. Eh. Who we kidding. I’ll probably be at a bar too. 

[baltosquid]

I will not hear any RAP slander. Kuchie 1+ for much of Maryland

[H2O]

Just now, baltosquid said:

I will not hear any RAP slander. Kuchie 1+ for much of Maryland

They only recently dropped the C in front of the RAP 

[Imgoinhungry]

CMC also gets an inch up to DC.  The timing has also moved forward rush hour could be messy.  

Timing similiar to other models? 4-7 am or so?


.

[H2O]

Keeping with the theme of this winter, my prediction will be less than an inch for MBY. If more than that Terpeast can eat a shoe

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

UK much improved as well, looks like consensus for about an inch in DC.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

UK much improved as well, looks like consensus for about an inch in DC.

 

[high risk]

What stands out to me is that even if the totals are very light, temperatures at onset are in the mid to upper 20s for most of us (except maybe for the far southern crew).    With the earlier onset, as others have noted, the morning rush hour could be very tricky, and school systems are going to have some very challenging decisions to make.

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

 

[Imgoinhungry]

Is the system out by 7am? Or still on going?


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[WEATHER53]

This is going to continue to get better as 30.15 baro not suppressive.  It’s going to rise some as next 18 hours progresses but I think 30.35 is the peak and that’s closer to perfection than suppression 

[baltosquid]

HRDPS looks good but a nasty dry slot for some in central eastern VA and far southern MD

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Short Pump again for the win.  Damn those Short Pumpers! 

[Buddy1987]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Seems like a general consensus being drummed up via CAMs this morning. Feel like flurries will reach north of I-70 with measurable (0.1”+) probably around I-70 with a small incremental increase the further south you go.

Rt50 is likely the dividing line for where 1” is possible in this scenario across VA/MD. Slightly better chance north of Rt50 as you get into Sussex County DE.
 

Best chance will be I-66 on south with 2-4” local to 6” across Southwest VA true Central VA, albeit lower side of things as you come off the terrain. 

System struggling to gain latitude and the drier antecedent airmass will be the main issue for majority of the sub. Bob Chill and Wxdude-ville will have the best opportunity here. CVille folks will have a nice little snowfall to start the season as well. 

@MillvilleWx Keep us updated as we go! Thank you as always. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Short Pump again for the win.  Damn those Short Pumpers! 

It seems to be getting juicier, EZF may win this one

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Is the system out by 7am? Or still on going?


.

Probably out by 11am

[Ji]

Hrrrr looked super tasty at 4am

[batmanbrad]

let's see if King Euro comes back north as well and joins the rest of the 12Z model suite.  It might as well finish what it started, right?

[baldereagle]

It's only the first week of meteorological winter's series of torments, rugpulls, cyclical disappointments-----but our day will come...........maybe! Take break, and take heart!

[jayyy]

Hrrrr looked super tasty at 4am

Do share

[Paleocene]

14 minutes ago, high risk said:

What stands out to me is that even if the totals are very light, temperatures at onset are in the mid to upper 20s for most of us (except maybe for the far southern crew).    With the earlier onset, as others have noted, the morning rush hour could be very tricky, and school systems are going to have some very challenging decisions to make.

The pressure is on Montgomery County, Maryland. The superintendent sent an apology email earlier this week after the 2-hour delay for rain on Tuesday.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Paleocene said:

The pressure is on Montgomery County, Maryland. The superintendent sent an apology email earlier this week after the 2-hour delay for rain on Tuesday.

They almost never fail to get it wrong.  I swear to god all they need to do is spend 10 min on this forum.

[Terpeast]

My baby son is due tomorrow morning, so it may very well be that we'll be driving through the snow on slippery roads to get to the hospital. It won't take much snow to make the roads dicey especially with cold temperatures overnight. Fortunately it's only a 10 minute drive and we'll give ourselves extra time to get there. 

Will probably be busy over the next couple of weeks, but I'll try to pop in here if there's something else to track.

May it snow tomorrow and everyone gets at least 1"!

[high risk]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

The pressure is on Montgomery County, Maryland. The superintendent sent an apology email earlier this week after the 2-hour delay for rain on Tuesday.

       

         I think this is a great point - social science is really going to be a factor here.    Tomorrow's decision will be made with Tuesday's decision fresh in their minds, and they'll absolutely be scared to death of another delay or closing that ends up not needed.   And it seems like a 2h delay wouldn't accomplish much tomorrow, as it will be cold and snowing 2 hours later.    It's probably either a "normal day" or "closure" decision.