December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Typhoon Tip]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the EPS is reloading after mid month. Maybe we get a moderation at that time but if true, may bode well for the holidays. 

I realize the following comment's likely to catapult me into the top ranked popularity seeding but ... winter sputters in January this year. Possibly early on too.  Canonical thaw struggles to reset and then its flower February

[WinterWolf]

Good to know…we’ll see if that comes to fruition…or not? 

[mahk_webstah]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

Something that has been missing over the past several years are the alberta clippers but the GFS has some modeled going forward.

My favorite when there is a snowpack.  Refresher, brief heavy snow and wind and fresh cold

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize the following comment's likely to catapult me into the top ranked popularity seeding but ... winter sputters in January this year. Possibly early on too.  Canonical thaw struggles to reset and then its flower February

I know some people have canceled winter by mid January, I guess we’ll see. I’m not sure I agree with that yet.

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro op has chances on 6th, 10th, 11th. Maybe we can cash in on one of those 

[cleetussnow]

53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize the following comment's likely to catapult me into the top ranked popularity seeding but ... winter sputters in January this year. Possibly early on too.  Canonical thaw struggles to reset and then its flower February

Based on what

[SouthCoastMA]

37 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Euro op has chances on 6th, 10th, 11th. Maybe we can cash in on one of those 

EPS have them too. The 10th in particular looks interesting 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize the following comment's likely to catapult me into the top ranked popularity seeding but ... winter sputters in January this year. Possibly early on too.  Canonical thaw struggles to reset and then its flower February

I wouldn’t hate it. If we are just going to follow the same pattern as the last several years, an early warmup would be nice 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is def more aggressive than other guidance trying to get a few inches in here on Saturday. 

A potential bigger threat would be middle of next week around the 10th-11th....but that one is all over the place. 

 

Lets see if we can amplify that ridge a little more out west....because we have a nice -NAO and some low heights in SE Canada which bodes well for actually trying to hold a high in place. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Good to know…we’ll see if that comes to fruition…or not? 

The never ending forecasting dilemma. 

[qg_omega]

https://x.com/nypost/status/1995555955707117813?s=46

[JACKASS]

21 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

https://x.com/nypost/status/1995555955707117813?s=46

Comments are gold

[DavisStraight]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The never ending forecasting dilemma. 

-30-40 below?

[George001]

I disagree with comparing this year to recent winters. The fall pattern has been different, it has been more seasonable to slightly BN rather than a torch, and has been stormier than last year. There are no guarantees in weather, but I feel a lot better about this upcoming winter than the past few years.

[Brewbeer]

the last few winters were so bad that this one has just got to be better

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS looking better for the 12/10-12/12 period...there's a couple of shortwaves in there....and those won't be figured out until later, but good things happen when we amplify that western ridge a bit like on the 18z run. 

[kdxken]

Next! 

 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS looking better for the 12/10-12/12 period...there's a couple of shortwaves in there....and those won't be figured out until later, but good things happen when we amplify that western ridge a bit like on the 18z run. 

We still can’t figure out what happens tomorrow lmao…. But that’s encouraging. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We still can’t figure out what happens tomorrow lmao…. But that’s encouraging. 

But we actually can 

[ORH_wxman]

49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We still can’t figure out what happens tomorrow lmao…. But that’s encouraging. 

Well not all systems are gonna have the marginal thermal profiles that we see tomorrow...no guarantees, but the larger scale layout for next week looks a lot colder. We have climo working in our favor too as we go deeper into December. 

Originally, we weren't expecting anything for 12/2 (we kept saying it looks better after about 12/3ish), but then this system kind of snuck into a colder airmass about a week ago on guidance...so we were hoping to score a bonus event early.

[UnitedWx]

Speaking of colder, down to 26 in Westfield already. I didn't expect it to cool so rapidly this evening 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Speaking of colder, down to 26 in Westfield already. I didn't expect it to cool so rapidly this evening 

ORH is 30/5 right now....you wouldn't think low levels would be a problem less than 18 hours from now with that type of dewpoint look....while ORH might be ok, not too far away won't be. 

Not the same setup, but that kind of turnaround reminds me of the 1/27-28/94 storm. @Typhoon Tipalways talks about that one....we started the night before around 0F and predawn of the storm was like 8F with snow grains and by late evening, we were 50F+ with steaming snow banks. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH is 30/5 right now....you wouldn't think low levels would be a problem less than 18 hours from now with that type of dewpoint look....while ORH might be ok, not too far away won't be. 

Not the same setup, but that kind of turnaround reminds me of the 1/27-28/94 storm. @Typhoon Tipalways talks about that one....we started the night before around 0F and predawn of the storm was like 8F with snow grains and by late evening, we were 50F+ with steaming snow banks. 

But that was a cutter I believe…wasn’t it. But get your point.  Remember it well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I know some people have canceled winter by mid January, I guess we’ll see. I’m not sure I agree with that yet.

I don't. 

[WxWatcher007]

54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH is 30/5 right now....you wouldn't think low levels would be a problem less than 18 hours from now with that type of dewpoint look....while ORH might be ok, not too far away won't be. 

Not the same setup, but that kind of turnaround reminds me of the 1/27-28/94 storm. @Typhoon Tipalways talks about that one....we started the night before around 0F and predawn of the storm was like 8F with snow grains and by late evening, we were 50F+ with steaming snow banks. 

 

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But that was a cutter I believe…wasn’t it. But get your point.  Remember it well. 

That sounds like absolute hell. That's one situation where I'd rather not even have a storm in the area. Keep it cold and dry. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't. 

Agree. I think we're in good shape this year. Will try to take a look at your forecast whenever I can find the time. I know you put an enormous amount of work it in. You should be proud (though I know that one never feels good until the forecast verifies). 

[alex]

7 degrees already. Cold night