December 2025 OBS and Discussion

[wdrag]

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

Thanks for your contributions. You will be missed. Hopefully you still post a good amount 

[MANDA]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

Walt. 

I for one and I suspect most here will l miss your threads and very insightful and detailed posts.  Have followed your AFD's since you were up at KBOX.  I might have even saved some in a box somewhere.  Many of them were meteorological masterpieces.  Learned so much from you.

Truly a treasure to have your insights here on these boards over all these years.

You are 100% correct that health and family come first.  I wish you all the best at Christmas, in the New Year and always! 

Please drop in here as you can even if just to post obs.

THANK YOU !

[lee59]

27 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

I enjoyed reading your posts. As we get older different things become far more important. Hope you continue to check in.

[SACRUS]

 

12 Years ago 2013  (DEec 14) 

NYC: 5 inches
LGA: 4.7
EWR: 4.5
JFK: 3.2

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Thanks for your contributions. You will be missed. Hopefully you still post a good amount 

I looked forward to his expertise the most so 100 percent agree!

[NEG NAO]

12Z Euro has strong blocking HP in southeast Canada around Christmas Day forcing a storm to be blocked south of us - other models are also showing cold enough air and HP north of us but storm potential different days that week leading up to the last week of the month - still too early for details

[the_other_guy]

this is a great little storm. We have a couple of days of cold weather… I wonder when our next snow will be.

 

looks pretty warm going forward. but I’m a Met fan. You gotta take the wins when they come.

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

Thanks for everything Walt. I meant to post this on December 12th for you.  I had watched this in October of this year.  You are mentioned multiple times.  You did a great job as usual.  Please feel free to join us whenever you feel up to it.  

 

 

[North and West]

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 
I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  
If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 
I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

We hope you can enjoy Christmas, too! I love reading your even-handed posts.


.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

this is a great little storm. We have a couple of days of cold weather… I wonder when our next snow will be.

 

looks pretty warm going forward. but I’m a Met fan. You gotta take the wins when they come.

Brief mild weather and back to cold

[WestBabylonWeather]

Any shot at all for any accumulation tomorrow? 

[Eduardo]

8 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It is a good pattern but similar to Other good patterns we’ve had past few years there really isn’t much to show for it. Big time cutter coming up

Man never have I understood a perspective so little.  After a few shutout years, the tristate has several inches of snow OTG two weeks into met winter in the middle of the holiday season.  It’s a great weekend to be a NYC winter wx lover!

The last few winters, I’ve had a “close the shades” mentality.  Not this year though.  We are definitely working against a broader backdrop of a warming climate and less snowiness on a decadal timeframe, but I’m growing confident that this is the year we start cycling up and out of the recent nadir of craptastic winters.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

Please post when it pleases you to do so.  No reason to keep to a schedule for us knuckleheads.  Best of health to you too.

[MJO812]

[MANDA]

Temps dropping steadily.  Down to 15 here.

[donsutherland1]

Following the season's first appreciable snowfall, tomorrow will be blustery and cold. High temperatures will likely wind up below 30° in much of the region. Morning lows could challenge the coldest so far this season.

The WPO has reached severely negative levels. That will likely contribute to the December 10-20 period being colder than normal overall. Moderation is possible late in the period as the WPO begins to rise. However, with the EPO forecast to go negative, exceptional warmth is unlikely.

The probability that December 2025 will have a maximum monthly temperature below 60° is increasing. The last time that happened was in 2019 when the monthly high was 58°. If 2025 has a monthly high below 60°, that would be only the fifth such occurrence since 2000 (2003, 2004, 2005, and 2019 are the cases since 2000).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +9.50 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.900 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (4.6° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.9° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[psv88]

Sound effect snow showers on the south fork of Suffolk now. Rare to see 

[hudsonvalley21]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

Thanks so much Walt for your thoughts, insights, and efforts along with teaching us so much here. Best of health and joy to you and your family. Please jump in any time you feel. All the best!

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Well hopefully the GEFS idea of the SER linking with the NAO block does not happen because by the end of the run we have a decent -NAO

[weatherpruf]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Thanks for everything Walt. I meant to post this on December 12th for you.  I had watched this in October of this year.  You are mentioned multiple times.  You did a great job as usual.  Please feel free to join us whenever you feel up to it.  

 

 

i remember that storm. was teaching 7th grade in elizabeth. lights went out 2nd period, and most of the schools in the region closed early. but not us. sat in the dark with the same kids the whole day, accomplishing nothing. they did send us up some tuna sandwiches. institutional tuna, in other words the worst. that was the year i decided to leave teaching.....

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

Walt,

Thank you for all you have done throughout your career and here. Your generosity, skill, and class made an indelible difference wherever you've gone. I wish you continued health and time with your family.

Very best wishes always,

Don

[Wxoutlooksblog]

7 hours ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

I will miss your posts. I've followed you for 30-40 years and remember your discussions from the 1980s/90s. Best of health to you!

WX/PT

[wthrmn654]

Fun fact several snowfall records were broken today islip and I think jfk, dating back to, 2013! Good snow year 

[Brasiluvsnow]

7 hours ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

Take care of yourself Walt and thank you for all of your posts and work that you have done it was and is appreciated,,,,chime in when you can 

[Stormlover74]

Looks a bit low in spots

[Byrdhousebv]

8 hours ago, wdrag said:

Classic winter snow event just ended with bitter cold to follow, similar to what I remember in the late 50s, 60s, 70s.  Nice threading. 

I haven't been able to keep up with thread initiation, so am done threading and in general commenting.  

If you want a one way daily 6am ish message, dm me at [email protected] and let me know your location.  Accuracy probably not as good as others in the D1-2 range but I know I grasp impacts ahead.  I saw the Tomer Burg (polar weather) D1 post, after the event  it was MUCH better than anything these I saw but I was also away in PA. 

I haven't done a very good job this year in nw NJ... partly due to aging slowing down and not able to review everything within constraints of home life.  Am done considering what is posted on American Weather and also  thread initiations,  but I will add a precipitation total every once in a while.  I'm at that age 75 where I need to focus much more here at home.  Everyone continues on their own track. Best of health is what I think you will value. 12/14/25

Walt, from the brief period I have visited this site I recognize the appreciated value you have added. You've earned the respect of us all and any future contribution, in any capacity, will always be welcome, even if its just to swing by and say hi.  

[Krs4Lfe]

Side note I don’t think the weather channel keeps up with all the winter storm naming anymore. Their long standing criteria is to name a winter storm if there are 2 million people under winter storm warnings. They did that a few times earlier this month but there’s been a few more since then and they didn’t name it. There were a few times last year that they did this too because I noticed that I there were winter storm warnings over a large population a few times without a winter storm name. They were very consistent between late 2012 (when they started) and throuhh 2024 but they seem to only name some of them since last year. This past one had winter storm warnings from Illinois through Philly/NJ for like 10 million people but no name. Most of the time the names are pretty stupid but I do think it’s a plus when you have a large storm, easier to track it that way imo. 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Side note I don’t think the weather channel keeps up with all the winter storm naming anymore. Their long standing criteria is to name a winter storm if there are 2 million people under winter storm warnings. They did that a few times earlier this month but there’s been a few more since then and they didn’t name it. There were a few times last year that they did this too because I noticed that I there were winter storm warnings over a large population a few times without a winter storm name. They were very consistent between late 2012 (when they started) and throuhh 2024 but they seem to only name some of them since last year. This past one had winter storm warnings from Illinois through Philly/NJ for like 10 million people but no name. Most of the time the names are pretty stupid but I do think it’s a plus when you have a large storm, easier to track it that way imo. 

Nope they still do

[Rjay]

41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nope they still do

Winter storm Yashi