Thursday washout: much needed rain

[MN Transplant]

22 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Genuinely curious as it always seems like the NAM 3k has the most orthographic precip out of all models always (including the other high res ones). Is it actually more accurate or is it overdoing it?

It is overly sensitive to terrain.

[SnowenOutThere]

27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It is overly sensitive to terrain.

So would the HRRR be preferable over it or is it still worth blending. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So would the HRRR be preferable over it or is it still worth blending. 

HRRR is preferred

[nw baltimore wx]

Well, I did it.

No, I didn’t start the snow blower, but I did clean the gutters.  

[weatherCCB]

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Well, I did it.

No, I didn’t start the snow blower, but I did clean the gutters.  

Same here. Hope we didn’t jinx the rain.

[yoda]

18 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Well, I did it.

No, I didn’t start the snow blower, but I did clean the gutters.  

 

[stormy]

3 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Too bad you can't hunt in my neighborhood.  We must have about one tree demon squirrel for every 100 square feet.

I have been squirrel hunting for decades.  Introduced by my dad.  They are a gourmets delight prepared properly.

Population varies from year to year based largely on last years hard mast crop. More mast last year, more squirrels this year.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

HRRR is preferred

What mechanism causes the NAM to mess it up? I’m learning more about actual meteorology in college rn so Im interested to what physics part is messes up

[high risk]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What mechanism causes the NAM to mess it up? I’m learning more about actual meteorology in college rn so Im interested to what physics part is messes up

      Personally, I look at both the HRRR and NAM Nest as my go-to CAMs.   The 3 Hi-Res Windows are lower on my list.

     The HRRR and NAM Nest both have their strengths and weaknesses.    The HRRR has a big advantage in running hourly, and there are things it does to create a more accurate starting point (a sophisticated assimilation of radar data, heavy usage of surface jobs....)    The NAM Nest hasn't been updated in 8 years.  The HRRR hasn't had a recent update but was last updated 4 years ago.

     In terms of biases with rainfall, NAM Nest tends to run wet, but the HRRR sometimes runs dry - might be microphysics, but tough to confirm.   And the HRRR is very sensitive to the hourly updates, so its solutions bounce around a lot.    The NAM Nest tends to be too cool with sfc temps, but it handles low-level inversions way better than the HRRR due to a better PBL scheme.  And as noted earlier, the NAM Nest tends to overdo orographic precip due to a very sharp topography field that was put in to enhance winds over terrain.    That's just a few things off of the top of my head.