Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph Jamaica landfall

[hawkeye_wx]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Is he still properly lined up for the eye with the NNW wobble?

It had looked like he'd hit the center, but the left hook may leave him just getting into the eastern edge of the eye.

[NorthHillsWx]

Jamaican land is now visible inside the clear eye of a 185 mph sub 900 mb monster 

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It had looked like he'd hit the center, but the left hook may leave him just getting into the eastern edge of the eye.

He will not be happy about that for sure. 

[jpljr77]

Purely a structural question, but how to these overwater bungalows hold up in a hurricane? Because the ones at the Sandals resort (in pic) just outside Auchindown are going to take a direct hit.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, eyewall said:

He will not be happy about that for sure. 

It’s possible but I think it bends back right as it comes onshore. Regardless he is in the absolute worst spot to be wind wise and is taking the full brunt at his location

[Roger Smith]

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Is he still properly lined up for the eye with the NNW wobble?

Looks to be in the zone where eastern eyewall might just clear him for moments, or he may stay in the eyewall without a clearance, center of eye track likely to be 10 to 15 miles west; as you know this means he is going to see the strongest winds and the surge there will likely be at its max also, think he may be above that but only just. 

[eyewall]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s possible but I think it bends back right as it comes onshore. Regardless he is in the absolute worst spot to be wind wise and is taking the full brunt at his location

Oh definitely. I was just hoping he would be able to get stadium effect shots.

[beanskip]

Melissa hasn't made any eastward progress (per satellite) for the last 90 minutes. 

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, jpljr77 said:

Purely a structural question, but how to these overwater bungalows hold up in a hurricane? Because the ones at the Sandals resort (in pic) just outside Auchindown are going to take a direct hit.

 

It depends on the codes adhered to, if any. Those resorts, given the investments made, tend to be pretty well built, specifically to handle these types of storms. Now, the flooding is a problem. And this is an unprecedentedly strong hurricane, so we'll see. 

[NeonPeon]

Just now, beanskip said:

Melissa hasn't made any eastward progress (per satellite) for the last 90 minutes. 

It looks rather like the eye is oscillating within the storm. The bulk of the storm is still making eastward progress.

[TheDreamTraveler]

8 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

looks like it has even intensified more then it did already this morning weather channel was saying this is basically a 200 mph hurricane if that is the case then this storm would be the strongest ever recorded in the atlantic basin surpassing even wilma..

Wilma is the most intense at 882mb. Unless we're just talking about wind speed then it's pretty much tied with her at 185mph

[NeonPeon]

2 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Wilma is the most intense at 882mb. Unless we're just talking about wind speed then it's pretty much tied with her at 185mph

Right, but it was unremarkably strong at landfall.

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It had looked like he'd hit the center, but the left hook may leave him just getting into the eastern edge of the eye.

Always watch those last minute trends. I never feel "comfortable" in the final track until the eyewall is on my doorstep.

(Context for the lurkers--I'm a chaser lol) 

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s possible but I think it bends back right as it comes onshore. Regardless he is in the absolute worst spot to be wind wise and is taking the full brunt at his location

 

5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Oh definitely. I was just hoping he would be able to get stadium effect shots.

Yeah, the other side of possibly missing dead center is that you end up sort of stranded in the eyewall. During Laura I missed the eye but was in the RFQ of the eyewall for the entire time. It was relentless. 

[Lava Rock]

13 minutes ago, jpljr77 said:

Purely a structural question, but how to these overwater bungalows hold up in a hurricane? Because the ones at the Sandals resort (in pic) just outside Auchindown are going to take a direct hit.

 

Was standing inside the overwater chapel 2yrs ago at friend's wedding. I'm sure that and the bungalows will be wiped out. Sad.

[Roger Smith]

When they say "ever recorded" they forget that in 1780 there were two hurricanes that may have been even stronger, one hit Savanna-la-Mar with a 20' tidal surge (on Oct 1), and another one around the 8th-9th killed multiple thousands of people on Barbados, Guadeloupe and Martinique. Now obviously back then there would have been little warning and people were living in relatively primitive buildings, but one has to wonder what the meteorological readings for either of those would have been. 

Also Camille in 1969 was quite intense at its core at landfall, and while the wind speed record may be based on overall hurricane data, I was under the impression that Andrew had some tornadic wind streaks that may have been above these record values being quoted, and those happened to hit a populated area at sea level. 

[NorthHillsWx]

There will definitely be areas that see gusts 220+ where some of the higher terrain interacts with the eyewall. I cannot emphasize enough the wind event from this storm especially on an island with higher terrain will maximize the wind seen on the ground. Absolutely incredible 

[olafminesaw]

[bobbutts]

Melissa very close to the top of the Atlantic list whatever measure you want to use and it's making landfall intact.  Doesn't really matter if it's rated #1 or #3 on some list.  

[Poker2015]

20 minutes ago, jpljr77 said:

Purely a structural question, but how to these overwater bungalows hold up in a hurricane? Because the ones at the Sandals resort (in pic) just outside Auchindown are going to take a direct hit.

 

They become underwater bungalows.

[Nibor]

[dan11295]

Looks like Melissa really trying to hug the coastline for a bit prior to finally being pulled inland.

[Wannabehippie]

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Based on satellite landfall probably coming in next 15-20 min

[ATDoel]

5 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

They become underwater bungalows.

and then they become artificial reefs.  No way they survive, wave action and surge will decimate them.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, dan11295 said:

Looks like Melissa really trying to hug the coastline for a bit prior to finally being pulled inland.

Frictional effects with land especially with such slow movement. In FL we see the same thing with the eye being pulled into the coast near Ft Myers vs Tampa like with Ian and Charley. I think with this angle of approach the effect is to try to keep it offshore? 

[BooneWX]

Based on Josh’s location, it looks like he maybe just barely got into the eye. Won’t have perfect readings obviously but maybe some hope for the incredible shots. 

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Based on Josh’s location, it looks like he maybe just barely got into the eye. Won’t have perfect readings obviously but maybe some hope for the incredible shots. 

he might be crazy enough to try to move

[MillvilleWx]

23 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Wilma is the most intense at 882mb. Unless we're just talking about wind speed then it's pretty much tied with her at 185mph

Just some fun stats to pass along; 882mb Wilma is strongest in the Atlantic basin based on pressure. Hurricane Dennis is strongest wind at 190mph in the basin. 185 is tied with multiple others. Needless to say, we are basically on the edge of uncharted waters in the grand scheme, and only up against the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane for strength of landfall. Quite a spectacle today

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Based on Josh’s location, it looks like he maybe just barely got into the eye. Won’t have perfect readings obviously but maybe some hope for the incredible shots. 

Without a nearby radar it's hard to say for sure, but his location is just West of the 11 am fix, so I think it's likely he got into the eye

[smokeybandit]