Hurricane Melissa

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon confirms intensity. NHC > online weather forum weenies 

[cptcatz]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Recon confirms intensity. NHC > online weather forum weenies 

Except 11 hours late. It was not a 140 mph storm when they said it was at 5am. It strengthened into a 140 mph storm throughout the day. 

[hawkeye_wx]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Recon confirms intensity. NHC > online weather forum weenies 

So what about the previous 10 recon passes today that did not confirm the NHC intensity?  Did those not count?  The NHC even said in their discussion their estimate might be generous.  It's no big deal.  It was likely going to strengthen more at some point today/tonight.

Melissa absolutely looks better now than it did this morning.  Much sharper edges of the eye and CDO.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Except 11 hours late. It was not a 140 mph storm when they said it was at 5am. It strengthened into a 140 mph storm throughout the day. 

People were claiming the intensity a bust in this flight bc of a NW-SE pass

[hawkeye_wx]

Next recon is scheduled to be in there around 2330z.  Every 6 hours there will be a new recon plane.

[NorthHillsWx]

This is going cat 5. Eye has completely cleared and is perfectly symmetrical. Beast mode activated 

[hawkeye_wx]

It appears the Google DeepMind model will be one of the winners again.  Several other models kept wanting to bring Melissa farther north, in between Haiti and Jamaica or into eastern Jamaica from the east/southeast.  The Google ensembles never budged from the wsw/west track to the south of Jamaica.

[eyewall]

145mph 941 at 5pm

[Nibor]

Just slogging due east. WEST

 

[GaWx]

WTNT33 KNHC 262055
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
...HURRICANE MELISSA RESUMES INTENSIFYING...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES 
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH 
MIDWEEK WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO BEGIN TOMORROW...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 77.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

[GaWx]

WTNT43 KNHC 262100
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
After an earlier pause in intensification, this afternoon's Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance mission has found Melissa intensifying 
again. The minimum pressure has fallen 12 mb from this morning 
NOAA-P3 mission, with the last dropsonde indicating a minimum 
pressure of 941 mb, and the plane reported a shrinking eyewall down 
to 6 n mi in diameter. In addition to the low pressure, the 
satellite presentation of Melissa remains very impressive, with 
1-minute visible satellite images from a GOES-19 meso-sector showing 
a very clear eye with a stadium effect. The eye temperature on water 
vapor imagery has continued to warm, while the thick ring of eyewall 
cloud tops remains between -75 to -80 C around the eye. The 
presentation of Melissa on radar reflectivity from Kingston, Jamaica 
has also improved, though there still appear to be hints of a moat 
forming around the inner eyewall, though without an obvious 
secondary eyewall formation yet. Subjective Dvorak CI-numbers from 
both SAB and TAFB were T7.0/140 kt, with objective satellite 
estimates between 132-143 kt. However, Melissa's peak winds from the 
last couple of recon missions have been lagging the satellite-based 
estimates. The last fix had peak 700 mb flight level winds of only 
129 kt, but a dropsonde launched in the north eyewall also reported 
a 500 m layer average of 142 kt, with an earlier dropsonde in the NE 
eyewall with a surface wind gust of 131 kt. This data is enough to 
raise the maximum sustained winds of 125 kt, and given the satellite 
presentation, this could be conservative. 

Melissa continues to move slowly westward, estimated at 270/4 kt. 
The hurricane has been moving a little faster to the west today, and 
this motion will likely continue for another 12-18 hours while the 
narrow mid-level ridge to the north remains in place. Soon, a 
short-wave trough will be moving into the SE United States, and this 
feature should create a weakness that Melissa will turn 
sharply northeast into, as it gradually accelerates. The track 
guidance has shifted a little westward again this cycle, and the NHC 
track forecast was nudged a little west again, but still shows 
landfall on Tuesday morning along the south coast of Jamaica. There 
remain some timing differences thereafter, but a second landfall is 
anticipated along the southeastern Cuba coast by Tuesday night or 
early Wednesday morning. As Melissa then accelerates into the 
southwestern Atlantic, it will move through the Bahamas and 
potentially approach Bermuda by the day 4-5 time frame, with a 
reinforcing trough helping to kick it farther out to sea. The latest 
NHC track forecast is a little west in the first 24-60 h, but falls 
back near the previous forecast track thereafter. The track is 
roughly a blend of the reliable HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach 
(HCCA) and Google Deep Mind ensemble mean (GDMI). 

Now that Melissa is intensifying again, it seems more clear that the 
earlier pause in intensification was a temporary oscillation, and 
the hurricane now appears poised to intensify more in the 
short-term. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a little more 
intensification in 12 h, but continues to show a peak intensity of 
140 kt, which is supported by HAFS-B which shows landfall of Melissa 
as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. The Google DeepMind ensemble 
members also continue to indicate this peak, with now 48/50 members 
reaching this lofty intensity. However, inner-core processes like 
ERCs could occur at any time, and the current small eye of Melissa 
likely suggests an ERC could begin in the next 24 hours or so, 
though it is very difficult to predict these occurrences with much 
skill. After landfall in Jamaica, Melissa will likely weaken some 
due to the interaction with that Island's high terrain, but it is 
still expected to be a major hurricane when crossing the Cuba 
coastline on Tuesday night. After emerging into the southwestern 
Atlantic Ocean, increasing vertical wind shear should continue 
gradual weakening through the end of the forecast, with the 
possibility that Melissa could start extratropical transition by day 
5. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be on the high side of 
the guidance, but falls closer to the HCCA and IVCN aids towards the 
end of the forecast period.

————

Monday.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 16.4N  77.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 16.4N  77.7W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 16.6N  78.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 17.2N  78.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 18.4N  77.5W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
 60H  29/0600Z 20.0N  76.1W  105 KT 120 MPH...ON THE SE CUBA COAST
 72H  29/1800Z 22.1N  74.4W   90 KT 105 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  30/1800Z 28.0N  69.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  31/1800Z 37.0N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Just slogging due east.

 

I believe you mean due west 

[SnoSki14]

Satellite presentation alone would suggest a near cat 5 now. Very impressive 

[dbullsfan]

That is one of the more impressive eyes I can remember. Would not want to be anywhere near Jamaica right now.


.

[amc]

Jamaica's weather service not anywhere close to positioned to handle this kind of event, site often not loading or slowly loading for me. Eyes of the world are trying to watch right now... amazing event about to unfold here.

[Newman]

4 minutes ago, amc said:

Jamaica's weather service not anywhere close to positioned to handle this kind of event, site often not loading or slowly loading for me. Eyes of the world are trying to watch right now... amazing event about to unfold here.

On Friday I listened to a briefing from the chief meteorologist for the Jamaican weather service and, at that time, the *center* of the NHC cone kept Melissa skirting around the western side of Jamaica. And in his briefing he stated "Right now, Jamaica should be protected as Melissa goes around the island". Like no sir, that's THE CENTER of the storm. Impacts are wayyyy outside the cone. I audibly gasped at his statement. I really really hope they are prepared for this.

[amc]

42 minutes ago, Newman said:

On Friday I listened to a briefing from the chief meteorologist for the Jamaican weather service and, at that time, the *center* of the NHC cone kept Melissa skirting around the western side of Jamaica. And in his briefing he stated "Right now, Jamaica should be protected as Melissa goes around the island". Like no sir, that's THE CENTER of the storm. Impacts are wayyyy outside the cone. I audibly gasped at his statement. I really really hope they are prepared for this.

Their radar site is completely down right now. I looked up some local media and there were no updates today in several. Watching a multicam setup of all available live cams shows many people moving about as usual...

[amc]

For those interested I've used this site to build a youtube multi-stream view of all the SeeJamaica live cams

 

http://emapp.cc/watch/[{"v":"k4Lt_iev8x4","t":0},{"v":"jVr7_V4Tohw","t":0},{"v":"oB-FPjPS14Q","t":0},{"v":"jJ6C03WtBJE","t":0},{"v":"RHkdQI2PSKA","t":0},{"v":"U67jHOGjH70","t":0},{"v":"pmzJ4AAh0Ds","t":0},{"v":"u70ySp4OuHY","t":0},{"v":"I0w-636mEDY","t":0},{"v":"SPwW9xN3e1M","t":0}]

[WxWatcher007]

Recon has descended and will be headed to the center soon.

[Superstorm]

Looks cat 5 by IR




.

[hawkeye_wx]

extrap 932 mb

[WxSynopsisDavid]

[Radtechwxman]

That is a massive drop from last recon mission. Im guessing winds will be upgraded to 150-155 if they get data to support it which I think they will. 

[TriPol]

21 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Looks cat 5 by IR




.

Horrific for Jamaica 

[Radtechwxman]

Seems like some hurricane models and other hi res guidance are favoring a more west track before a north turn now which would keep it away from more dense population and hit more rural areas. 

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Just now, Radtechwxman said:

Seems like some hurricane models and other hi res guidance are favoring a more west track before a north turn now which would keep it away from more dense population and hit more rural areas. 

Which presents an even more dire situation for those dense coastal areas. Based on a more west track, storm surge would be maximized. No matter the scenario or potential tracks left on the table, each one is catastrophic or devastating for Jamaica. Also, a more west track increases the likelihood of a peak intensity landfall being it will be over warmer waters longer.

[hawkeye_wx]

933 mb from the dropsonde

[WxWatcher007]

Center sonde was 937mb with a 41kt wind

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

933 mb from the dropsonde

Ha, beat me to it. Impressive drop continues. I'm guessing it'll be another 3-4mb between passes. 

[hazwoper]

9 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Seems like some hurricane models and other hi res guidance are favoring a more west track before a north turn now which would keep it away from more dense population and hit more rural areas. 

I don’t think you are truly grasping what 30” of rain in Kingston means.  The entire island is in big trouble