Hurricane Melissa

[hawkeye_wx]

967 mb, 115 kts flight level on the last pass.

The eye has been tracking south of west this evening.

[Windspeed]

i know its in the warmest water in the  entire atlantic but would nor the slow movement cause upwelling?

OHC is very deep in that part of the Caribbean. The 26°C isotherm is over 100 meters of depth. It would take a multi-day stall before upwelling became a significant factor, and we're talking in terms of a Category 5 sustaining itself. For all practical purposes, the main reason even slow-moving hurricanes in the western Caribbean can maintain Cat 5 intensity well into November. Some of our most powerful historical Cat 5s were slow movers in that part of the world (Wilma, Mitch, etc.). It's where the Western Hemisphere's version of WPAC typhoons can occur, though still considerably rare.

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i know its in the warmest water in the  entire atlantic but would nor the slow movement cause upwelling?

It will cool the water at least slowly because it’s taking the potential energy from the warm ocean and converting it into kinetic energy (its a heat engine). That’s related to tropical cyclones redistributing heat to higher latitudes. That’s in addition to any cooling of the surface from upwelling. I believe these are two separate processes.

[Floydbuster]

 

[phlsnowman24]

Satellite actually already looks stronger than the 11PM advisory, looks Cat 4ish. Wouldn't be surprised if it is at 2AM.

 

 

[andyhb]

Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.

[Floydbuster]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.

HOLY COW.

[Boston Bulldog]

4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.

Good lord. ~940mb by morning? Maybe even lower? Throw intensity guidance out the door, Melissa is about to go low

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.

That is…wow…

[Windspeed]

Intense VHT is now going up in the NE eyewall. Obviously, we're in an ongoing rapid intensification phase. Expect some beefy pressure drops between now and Sunday afternoon with such an eyewall presentation on radar, which is getting more and more symmetrical each passing hour.

[hawkeye_wx]

Final recon pass until morning found 114 kts flight level and 959 mb extrap.

This thing is barely moving.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

I mean, one has to imagine based on what we are seeing on latest imagery, pressure will be even lower on next pass.

[WxWatcher007]

This is exceptionally rapid organization. 

15z on 10/25

04z now, on 10/26

[hawkeye_wx]

Officially 959 mb from the dropsonde.

[Windspeed]

This is exceptionally rapid organization. 

15z on 10/25


04z now, on 10/26

Fourteen hours between those two images is absolutely absurd. We kept harping that all forecast indicators were showing substantial decrease in wind shear to a near to pristine favorable upper environment. The system is now positioned right under an amplifying ULAC. Powder keg stuff. I think we'll see a Category 5 today.

[GaWx]

 This will be a great test to see how much cooling of the surface there is by 10/29. Here was the SST map as of 10/24: note the large area of 30-31C surrounding Jamaica, which is the warmest in the Atlantic basin:

 

[Windspeed]

 This will be a great test to see how much cooling of the surface there is by 10/29. Here was the SST map as of 10/24: note the large area of 30-31C surrounding Jamaica, which is the warmest in the Atlantic basin:

 

Here's some heat content and isotherm depth maps as well. Melissa's core, despite being a slow-mover, has plenty of energy to tap prior to land interaction.

Credit to RSMAS at Miami for maintaining these to the public.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

Latest vortex message states the eyewall is square. This has only been seen in the strongest upper-echelon hurricanes.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

120 at 2 am update.

[Windspeed]

Latest vortex message states the eyewall is square. This has only been seen in the strongest upper-echelon hurricanes.

Mesovorticies rotating around the eyewall. it shouldn't be long until we start seeing pressure dropping like a rock.

[Arnold214]

I think Melissa is well on her way to becoming a "buzzsaw". 

[Windspeed]

Melissa's eye is clearing out fast now.

[Nibor]

Incredibly sobering look for those in Jamaica.

[TheDreamTraveler]

She's gonna be a beaut. I really can't believe we're watching the worst case scenario for Jamaica play out before our eyes. Especially a country that has avoided very many destructive hurricanes in the past but that luck as finally run out sadly. Like even if Melissa was moving normally this would still be one for the history books but given the slow speed, angle of approach and absolute monster strength it's going to be something that they may never see again for hundreds of years. I really do not think many know what's truly coming.

[dan11295]

Eye continuing to clear on IR, suggesting intensification is continuing. 

[Sharknado123]

On 10/24/2025 at 6:52 PM, Interstate said:

Looks like Jamaica might be spared. 

.. and to everybody that said the GFS was onto something, you should remember that too. Dangerously incorrect comments from some of you.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs was an embarrassment with this. 

[Torch Tiger]

We've seen these trochoidal wobble around islands including Jamaica, as well. Especially the slow w/wsw drifters. There are a variety of scenarios that are less than "worst-case", a little early to be declaring anything

[weatherCCB]

140mph on 5am 

eye really contracting now

[steve392]

3 hours ago, Nibor said:

Incredibly sobering look for those in Jamaica.

That is beautiful and terrifying all at the same time.   That southeast part of the island is probably already wrecked too.