Spooky Season (October Disco Thread)

[HoarfrostHubb]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not seeing it 

I'm leaning towards minor changes around the 20th-ish

[dryslot]

33.1°F yesterday, 33.6°F this morning for lows with back to back frost.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm leaning towards minor changes around the 20th-ish

If by minor changes we mean upslope snow occurrences over a couple ... three different flat windy CAA intervals, with an in between season's first synoptic snow possibility - verification notwithstanding - before Halloween?  sure

[kdxken]

50 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm leaning towards minor changes around the 20th-ish

 

[jsw]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not seeing it 

From NWS just now, exerpt, Brattleboro:

Tuesday Night

Showers likely, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night

A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Discussion:

While the dry and unseasonably warm trend continues into
Monday, our attention then turns to a shortwave trough and
associated sfc cold front progressing form southern Canada into
the Northeast. Guidance has trended earlier with the start time
of the rain ahead of the sfc boundary with most ensembles now
suggesting rain spreads into areas north and west of Albany
Tuesday evening before rain advances further east overnight.
There remains uncertainty regarding the intensity of the
shortwave trough tracking through Canada which will provide the
necessary forcing for ascent to enhance the precipitation
shield along the incoming boundary. Ensemble clusters suggest
two types of scenarios. If the trough become neutrally to even
slightly negatively tilted by Tuesday night, the CVA ahead of it
should be strong enough to support a widespread soaking rain
with 24-hr rainfall probabilities through 00 UTC Wed for near
or above 0.50" ranging 50-70%. On the other hand, should the
trough be weaker, limited CVA along the boundary will keep
rainfall amounts lower with 24-hr rainfall probabilities for at
or greater than 0.50" near or under 30%.

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

33.1°F yesterday, 33.6°F this morning for lows with back to back frost.

Late last evening the temp was 5° lower than same time day before, but this morning's low of 31 was 2° higher than yesterday morning.  Warmer aloft - 8 AM at MWN: 46° (and TD -8!)

[Damage In Tolland]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm leaning towards minor changes around the 20th-ish

It’s a fast west east zonal flow on ensembles. Doesn’t appear to be much troughiness at least thru last week of music nth 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

33.1°F yesterday, 33.6°F this morning for lows with back to back frost.

Stay warm n safe