August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out @ 90F here today. 

[MANDA]

Anybody catching a T-Shower?  Missed just to the north and just to the south here.  Fast moving and likely dropped <.25".

Friend in Pittstown, NJ had a T-shower about an hour ago.  

[donsutherland1]

Today saw hot temperatures across much of the region. Highs included:

Bridgeport: 88°
Islip: 86°
New Haven: 89°
New York City-Central Park: 91°
New York City-JFK Airport: 85°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91°
Newark: 94°
White Plains: 89°

A dramatic change to a sustained period of cooler weather now lies ahead. A cold front will cross the region this evening or tonight bringing some showers or thundershowers.

In the wake of the frontal passage, noticeably cooler air will overspread the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s Monday through Wednesday and then the lower 80s on Thursday and Friday. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +4.49 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.220 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Anybody catching a T-Shower?  Missed just to the north and just to the south here.  Fast moving and likely dropped <.25".

Friend in Pittstown, NJ had a T-shower about an hour ago.  

Just plain showers on radar that haven’t reached the ground at least not yet up here, there is a thunderstorm to my SE.  .35” for the month. 

[winterwx21]

Missing to the north and south here. Heavy downpour going into northern Union County right now. Looks like I'll be watering again. 

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Missing to the north and south here. Heavy downpour going into northern Union County right now. Looks like I'll be watering again. 

That part of Union County has been cashing in  repeatedly this summer.  Radar is impressive.

[nycwinter]

pouring in manhattan.. though we might luck out with the rain today guess not..

[Stormlover74]

Probably going to just miss me

[forkyfork]

half inch and counting

[WE GOT HIM]

this si crazy