August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out @ 90F here today. 

[MANDA]

Anybody catching a T-Shower?  Missed just to the north and just to the south here.  Fast moving and likely dropped <.25".

Friend in Pittstown, NJ had a T-shower about an hour ago.  

[donsutherland1]

Today saw hot temperatures across much of the region. Highs included:

Bridgeport: 88°
Islip: 86°
New Haven: 89°
New York City-Central Park: 91°
New York City-JFK Airport: 85°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91°
Newark: 94°
White Plains: 89°

A dramatic change to a sustained period of cooler weather now lies ahead. A cold front will cross the region this evening or tonight bringing some showers or thundershowers.

In the wake of the frontal passage, noticeably cooler air will overspread the region. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s Monday through Wednesday and then the lower 80s on Thursday and Friday. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

The synoptic pattern should limit direct tropical cyclone threats for the foreseeable future. Impacts from elevated tides, surf, and rip currents would be the most likely effects produced by Erin as it tracks well offshore between the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +4.49 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.220 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (0.7° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.2° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[IrishRob17]

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Anybody catching a T-Shower?  Missed just to the north and just to the south here.  Fast moving and likely dropped <.25".

Friend in Pittstown, NJ had a T-shower about an hour ago.  

Just plain showers on radar that haven’t reached the ground at least not yet up here, there is a thunderstorm to my SE.  .35” for the month. 

[winterwx21]

Missing to the north and south here. Heavy downpour going into northern Union County right now. Looks like I'll be watering again. 

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Missing to the north and south here. Heavy downpour going into northern Union County right now. Looks like I'll be watering again. 

That part of Union County has been cashing in  repeatedly this summer.  Radar is impressive.

[nycwinter]

pouring in manhattan.. though we might luck out with the rain today guess not..

[Stormlover74]

Probably going to just miss me

[forkyfork]

half inch and counting

[WE GOT HIM]

this si crazy

[steve392]

Thunderstorms built to my WSW and just grazed my house with a drizzle.  Really blew up just east of me and into NYC.

[jm1220]

Maybe a shower here if we’re lucky, the rest is collapsing as it heads over LI or staying over the city as usual. 

[gravitylover]

.18 and of course, I slept thru it.

[ag3]

Decent rain shower here. Looking forward to the end of the heat this entire next 7-10 days.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Gonna be close here. But lookin possible 

[winterwarlock]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

And possibly the last this year. 

Topped out at 94/77/104

 

I could see a string of 3 90 degree days in the first 2 weeks of September in my parts if we stay dry

[psv88]

Storms sliding to my south. Watching the lightning from the storms in Nassau. Not going to get anything here 

[WestBabylonWeather]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Storms sliding to my south. Watching the lightning from the storms in Nassau. Not going to get anything here 

I hear the cell on Nassau Suffolk border.  It’s extremely loud. Won’t make it here though. Missed by a couple miles 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I hear the cell on Nassau Suffolk border.  It’s extremely loud. Won’t make it here though. Missed by a couple miles 

Yea the thunder is extremely loud. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea the thunder is extremely loud. 

Skimming me now. Light rain. Should be short lived. Enough for the marigolds to drink lol 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea the thunder is extremely loud. 

Had some thunder when it blew up a little over Plainview. But maybe two drops here. 

[Stormlover74]

Had a few showers. Enough to wet the grass but less than .10"

[doncat]

Had 0.35" with the t storm earlier... Very hot high temp of 94° after am 71°.

[donsutherland1]

Central Park picked up 0.64" rain in an hour. While impressive, that was just half of the hourly record of 1.28" for August 17 that was set in 1974.

[SI Mailman]

Finally got the car wash today and then a half inch of rain 6 hours later. Oh well

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 96
TEB: 94
New Brnswck: 94
PHL: 93
BLM: 93
TTN: 93
LGA: 91
NYC: 91
ACY: 89
ISP: 86
JFK: 85

[Brian5671]

Nice downpour here that dropped a good 1/2 inch-settles the dust for awhile 

[STORMANLI]

Wide left and right but a couple of cloud to ground strikes and the acoustics were nice.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Had a few showers. Enough to wet the grass but less than .10"

All missed here.  Philly area getting hammered

[NorthShoreWx]

Isolated shower on the north shore just dropped a half inch of rain here in 10 minutes.  Reminiscent of a year ago but that lasted 3 hours.