August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[winterwx21]

0.18" here so far. It has been light but it's steadily adding up. At least it's enough to give things a watering. We'll have to see if we can get a heavier downpour from the activity in PA later. HRRR isn't picking up on it but it's possible. 

[winterwx21]

I have Romaine lettuce out there for the fall that I started from seed about a month ago. This cool rainy weather today is great for it. I can see it having a major growth spurt today. It has been so dry over the last month, so it really needed a day like today. 

[psv88]

0.07

[Rmine1]

I don’t have pcp amounts IMBY, but we’ve been in a steady rain for well over an hour. Maybe it’s the south shores turn

[weathermedic]

.18 at my station

[FPizz]

.04" with mist.  

[psv88]

So far a high of 69. A rare August day staying in the 60s?

[MANDA]

17 minutes ago, psv88 said:

So far a high of 69. A rare August day staying in the 60s?

Not everybody's idea of a nice August day but honestly I'm loving it.  Done with heat and humidity.  Ready to move on.

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Loving the strong petrichor smell today. Something about it reminds me of days gone by. *sigh*

[WeatherGeek2025]

Steady light rain here in midtown temps in the low 70's

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Not everybody's idea of a nice August day but honestly I'm loving it.  Done with heat and humidity.  Ready to move on.

looks fairly cool overall going forward...

[guinness77]

Been pouring here in Jamaica for a bit now. 

[psv88]

0.25, 1.05” for the month. It’s been dry 

[MJO812]

[winterwx21]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

looks fairly cool overall going forward...

Really looking forward to the beautiful airmass the middle of next week. Will probably make it up to upper 70s for highs, but it will be just about the lowest humidity of the summer and that will lead to very cool nights. 

[Brian5671]

nice downpour here

[SACRUS]

 

70 / 68 some mist occasionally / drizzle

[LoboLeader1]

Heavy showers here, topped out at 66F today. 

[FPizz]

59 this morning, 68 for the high.  0.11" of all day mist.  

[uofmiami]

0.23" at both my stations so far & both currently 64.7

[SACRUS]

 

The eye is in view now

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Not everybody's idea of a nice August day but honestly I'm loving it.  Done with heat and humidity.  Ready to move on.

this entire month has been pretty cool, summer ended when July ended

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Not everybody's idea of a nice August day but honestly I'm loving it.  Done with heat and humidity.  Ready to move on.

it helps that it only lasts two days

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

We generally need a least a recurving hurricane from August 20th through 31st to avoid 90° heat at the warm spots like Newark. This could be the first August since 2011 and 2008 that Newark remains below 90° during this period. We had Irene in late August 2011 and Hanna in 2008. But those systems came further west than Erin will. So this shows that even a storm recurving to our east can cool the pattern when interacting with a trough in Eastern Canada. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ August 20th to 31st Max Temp
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-08-31	95	0
2023-08-31	91	0
2022-08-31	93	0
2021-08-31	97	0
2020-08-31	93	0
2019-08-31	92	0
2018-08-31	96	0
2017-08-31	91	0
2016-08-31	95	0
2015-08-31	94	0
2014-08-31	93	0
2013-08-31	91	0
2012-08-31	94	0
2011-08-31	89	0
2010-08-31	98	0
2009-08-31	94	0
2008-08-31	86	0

this entire month has been pretty cool.

also recurving typhoons don't necessarily produce cooler weather (see 1995), they can also produce hot and dry weather.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this entire month has been pretty cool, summer ended when July ended

The start was cool but last week was very hot and the month will still be AN

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The start was cool but last week was very hot and the month will still be AN

the hottest it got anywhere was low 90s, around here we had none or only one 90 degree day, it was a big step down from the June 20-July 31 period.  It's like the summer equivalent of the 2010-11 winter, the snow season ended after the end of January-- but it was rocking for 5 weeks starting with the solstice lol

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/16/2025 at 2:12 PM, donsutherland1 said:

Here it is:

Thanks, these are pretty much the hottest summers as I remember them-- I'm surprised that 1983 isn't on this list though, that was hot from June through September and set records for that era.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/16/2025 at 7:54 PM, vegan_edible said:

has anyone else noticed a lot of yellow leaves? i cant tell if im tripping but i feel like im seeing a decent amount of yellow leaves for august. mainly between white plains and armonk, but can someone at least talk me off the ledge... summer can't be over yet

not just yellow leaves, but leaves have actually been falling here for a few days now

[donsutherland1]

The temperature peaked at 70° in Central Park. That was the coolest high temperature since June 17 when the high was 67°.

Showers and periods of rain are likely into tomorrow. Most areas should see 0.50" or less of rain. However, some spots could see heavier rain.

High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 70s tomorrow and then climb into the lower 80s on Friday through the weekend. 

The extended range guidance continues to suggest that the closing week of August could feature below normal temperatures. Precipitation could be near normal. 

There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -8.56 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.972 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.6° (1.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 8/16/2025 at 2:08 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, pretty sure the warm spots away from the water in Queens would have recorded over 50 days reaching 90° back in 2010 since Mineola did. 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 90° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	59
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	54
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	52
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	51
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	50
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	48
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	46
NY	BRONX	COOP	45
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	41
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	40
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	37
CT	DANBURY	COOP	37
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	35
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	34
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	33
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	32
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	31
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	27
NY	MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP	WBAN	26
CT	MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP	WBAN	25
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	24
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	24
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	22
CT	ANSONIA 1 NW	COOP	22

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 95° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	21
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	20
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	18
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	18
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	17
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	16
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	14
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	12
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	12
NY	BRONX	COOP	11
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	11
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10
CT	DANBURY	COOP	10

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 100° days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	4
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	4
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	4
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	3
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	3
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	3
CT	DANBURY	COOP	3

Nassau County really needs a micronet, there are probably big differences from the barrier islands to Sunrise Highway let alone what happens farther north.

Sea breezes are very local and don't usually make it more than 2 miles inland.