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2025 summer max contest -- THURSDAY JUNE 19 LAST DAY FOR ENTRIES -- enter by 06z June 20

Roger Smith

By Roger Smith,
in Mid Atlantic

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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As always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports:

DCA

IAD

BWI

RIC

and I will start the ball rolling with 101, 101, 102 and 100. 

Contest deadline 06z June 20 2025 (end of Thursday June 19th)

... I have adjusted the deadline in view of model forecasts of possible high values around 22nd-23rd, to avoid having last minute nowcasts competing with forecasts submitted in advance. ... we seem to be on track to receive a good turnout of entries ... 

Tie-breaker details: lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties

For example, 0 1 1 1 beats 0 1 2 0. ... 2 1 1 1 beats 2 2 1 0. ... June 12th beats June 15th.

___ DEFENDING 2024 WINNER: Jebman ___ 

 
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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Please note, I had originally chosen June 22-23 as deadline (23rd 06z) but in view of current model projections I have adjusted the deadline forward to June 20 at 06z, or end of the day Thursday of next week ... I don't believe this will have much impact on turnout which is trending towards the usual 20-30 entries already. And I wanted to avoid a situation where a record high on the day after deadline attracts a number of very small over-run of deadline entries, this way, I can have a table of entries ready before the heat arrives and a clear barrier to last minute nowcast type entries. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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You may still enter the contest until 0200h EDT (06z June 20) ... I am posting this now to give last-minute entrants and current forecasters a quick overview of forecasts already made ... so far twenty-one have entered and all have managed to find a unique set of values.The consensus as median gives a slightly different outcome to means, so I may change the contest consensus to a mean value if it gives a better set of numbers. At 0200h or a few minutes later, I will edit out this table and post it after all on-time forecasts that may be placed below in the thread. If there are no further forecasts I will just edit this part instead. I may boost my own forecasts, it is looking very hot early next week under a near-600 dm upper high. If so, all other forecasts will drop one number in order of entry.

 

__ Table of entries __ 2025 seasonal max __

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC

gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102

batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100

Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103

tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101

DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103

Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100

GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101

biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100

wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100

George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101

___ consensus _________________ 99  __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 

MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102

Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101

Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100

NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99

RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99

toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101

Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99

nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99

Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98

____________________________

Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100,

Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. 

Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Okay, so there were no last minute entries or edits, the table of forecasts remains as earlier posted (now two posts back) ... good luck ... by the way, Weather53, your win was two contests back, Jebman is the current (no show) defending champ. 

I seriously considered adding 2 to my forecasts but that usually backfires so I'll stick with the relatively moderate numbers I had. It would surprise me if this coming heat wave is the only serious attack on 100 all summer, only a small number of years have their seasonal max in June, off the top of my head I could say 1923, 1952, 1956, but more often a June record high is followed by some more later in the summer. 

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