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2025 summer max contest -- THURSDAY JUNE 19 LAST DAY FOR ENTRIES -- enter by 06z June 20


Roger Smith
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As always, predict the highest temperatures to be expected this summer at the four airports:

DCA

IAD

BWI

RIC

and I will start the ball rolling with 101, 101, 102 and 100. 

Contest deadline 06z June 20 2025 (end of Thursday June 19th)

... I have adjusted the deadline in view of model forecasts of possible high values around 22nd-23rd, to avoid having last minute nowcasts competing with forecasts submitted in advance. ... we seem to be on track to receive a good turnout of entries ... 

Tie-breaker details: lowest errors break ties, order of entry the last level separating ties

For example, 0 1 1 1 beats 0 1 2 0. ... 2 1 1 1 beats 2 2 1 0. ... June 12th beats June 15th.

___ DEFENDING 2024 WINNER: Jebman ___ 

 
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Please note, I had originally chosen June 22-23 as deadline (23rd 06z) but in view of current model projections I have adjusted the deadline forward to June 20 at 06z, or end of the day Thursday of next week ... I don't believe this will have much impact on turnout which is trending towards the usual 20-30 entries already. And I wanted to avoid a situation where a record high on the day after deadline attracts a number of very small over-run of deadline entries, this way, I can have a table of entries ready before the heat arrives and a clear barrier to last minute nowcast type entries. 

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  • Roger Smith changed the title to 2025 summer max contest -- THURSDAY JUNE 19 LAST DAY FOR ENTRIES -- enter by 06z June 20

You may still enter the contest until 0200h EDT (06z June 20) ... I am posting this now to give last-minute entrants and current forecasters a quick overview of forecasts already made ... so far twenty-one have entered and all have managed to find a unique set of values.The consensus as median gives a slightly different outcome to means, so I may change the contest consensus to a mean value if it gives a better set of numbers. At 0200h or a few minutes later, I will edit out this table and post it after all on-time forecasts that may be placed below in the thread. If there are no further forecasts I will just edit this part instead. I may boost my own forecasts, it is looking very hot early next week under a near-600 dm upper high. If so, all other forecasts will drop one number in order of entry.

 

__ Table of entries __ 2025 seasonal max __

 

FORECASTER _________________ DCA _IAD _BWI _RIC

gopper (16) ____________________ 103 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102

batmanbrad (19) _______________ 103 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100

Roger Ramjet (20) _____________ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _ 103

tplbge (14) _____________________ 102 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101

DanTheMan (8) ________________ 101 _ 103 _ 104 _ 103

Roger Smith (1) _________________ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100

GramaxRefugee (18) ____________100 _ 101 _ 102 _ 101

biodhokie (17) __________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100

wxdude64 (13) _________________ 100 _ 100 _ 102 _ 100

George BM (2) _________________ 100 __ 99 _ 101 _ 101

___ consensus _________________ 99  __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 

MillvilleWx (7) ___________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _ 102

Rhino16 (5) ______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 101

Jenkins Jinkies (9) ______________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100

NorthArlington101 (6) ____________99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99

RickinBaltimore (10) _____________ 99 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

WxUSAF (4) _____________________ 99 __ 97 _ 100 __ 99

toolsheds (12) ___________________ 99 __ 97 __ 99 _ 101

Weather53 (21) __________________ 98 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99

nw baltimore wx (3) _____________ 98 __ 98 __ 99 __ 99

Its A Breeze (11) _________________ 98 __ 98 __ 98 __ 99

Prince Frederick Wx (15) ________ 98 __ 97 __ 98 __ 98

____________________________

Consensus is median of forecasts. The mean of forecasts is 99.9, 99.5, 100.4, 100.3 or 100 _ 100 _ 100 _ 100,

Of 21 forecasts, nine have all locations at 100 or higher, five have no locations reaching 100F, seven have a blend. 

Ranges are 98-103, 97-103, 98-104, 98-103

 

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