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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
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26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Even the global models do not have more than 2-4".. I guess the radar is more impressive than that?

3 things.
1)Often these last second dry trends on guidance are BS. It’s happened many many many times. I can think of two that really stuck out. Last run before Jan 2004 storm after days of 4-8” guidance suddenly came in dry with like 2-4”. We got 4-8. Night before Feb 11 2010 guidance slashed qpf way down. We got what they had been showing. I don’t know why it happens. But many times I’ve observed this dry up right at game time and it was wrong. 


2)Radar looks great and the forcing over the area is insane 

3)they might be counting on better ratios than models think. The DGZ is perfect. It’s only ground temps. If it snows hard enough to overcome ground temps ratios could end up better than the 8 or 9-1 the models are thinking. 

6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

They suck, but trend is trend

I don’t know what to make of it. The radar looks in line with the NAM/GFS/Euro with a healthy southern precip max along the polar boundary not focusing on the arctic boundary. But the CAMs keep going harder and harder on the arctic wave and drying up the fgen associated banding which makes little sense given how intense that looks. Of course to make it worse I can’t find an outlet that shows mid level dynamics for the hhhr or rap so I have no way of knowing why they are doing that. I can’t tell much just from the crap data they provide for those. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My temp is 36 but the dew point is only 17 so I’m not too concerned 

Seeing how it was 44 and raining and then dropped to 33 and I got 2” the other day ya not concerned sitting at 37 here. 

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16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

3 things.
1)Often these last second dry trends on guidance are BS. It’s happened many many many times. I can think of two that really stuck out. Last run before Jan 2004 storm after days of 4-8” guidance suddenly came in dry with like 2-4”. We got 4-8. Night before Feb 11 2010 guidance slashed qpf way down. We got what they had been showing. I don’t know why it happens. But many times I’ve observed this dry up right at game time and it was wrong. 


2)Radar looks great and the forcing over the area is insane 

3)they might be counting on better ratios than models think. The DGZ is perfect. It’s only ground temps. If it snows hard enough to overcome ground temps ratios could end up better than the 8 or 9-1 the models are thinking. 

2 things. 

1) They aren't really drying up right now. They haven't showed more than 4" across the area for the event the whole way along.. It's only suppose to snow moderately for 3-4 hours. that's why I'm like, why is the NWS predicting 5-8"? The radar and ground elements must be awesome. 

2) Last storm they dried up last minute, and it verified. I know in the higher elevations you had like 6", but where I am I went from 4-6" on models to 1-2", and ended up with a dusting.. the whole area less than 500-1000ft experienced the same thing. That's why in these marginal temp situations the 1:10 Kuchera maps are especially wrong.. the snow fell very wet and light because warmer temps went into some upper levels of the atmosphere. 

I'm at 39F and it will probably drop down to 31-33, but for 10:1 results you usually need to be in the 20s. 

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4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

2 things. 

1) They aren't really drying up right now. They haven't showed more than 4" across the area for the event the whole way along.. It's only suppose to snow moderately for 3-4 hours. that's why I'm like, why is the NWS predicting 5-8"? The radar and ground elements must be awesome. 

2) Last storm they dried up last minute, and it verified. I know in the higher elevations you had like 6", but where I am I went from 4-6" on models to 1-2", and ended up with a dusting.. the whole area less than 500-1000ft experienced the same thing. That's why in these marginal temp situations the 1:10 Kuchera maps are especially wrong.. the snow fell very wet and light because warmer temps went into some of the upper levels of the atmosphere. 

I'm at 39F and it will probably drop down to 32-33, but for 10:1 results you usually need to be in the 20s. 

:rolleyes:

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2 hours ago, EHoffman said:

"High elevation" being a relative term...but yeah people forget upper NW is quite hilly.  If you go to Fort Reno Park they have a little placeholder for the highest elevation point in dc.  It's...underwhelming.

Because with elevation you need sight lines and flat land flat to compare it to. It would be like living on the upper level of a building with no staircase or windows, there's no reference point.

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32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Remember when @high risk, the guy who helps program them, told us that the hrrr and rap suck?

Remember that rug pull like March 8 2018. Euro, NAM both, GFS, RGEM GGEM all had 4-8” across MD from that miller b?  Then the HRRR started showing nothing…with the precip shield developing like 75 miles northeast if what all other guidance had. I remember us both saying to each other, We’ll die on the hill with the euro et all. No way all guidance is that wrong from like 12 hours and hrrr is right. Well… still waiting for my 4-8” from that one. 
 

Not saying I buy the hrrr and rap. We could cite 100 other times they were off on a crazy tangent. But I never ever feel comfortable unless we’re in the bullseye of some hecs with 20” 75 miles either side of me heading into it.  It’s slightly troubling and perplexing they are trending worse as we get closer.
 

People like to pretend it’s safe as some coping mechanism but I’ve had enough rug pulls and I guess I’m not a cops by lying to myself type. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Remember that rug pull like March 8 2018. Euro, NAM both, GFS, RGEM GGEM all had 4-8” across MD from that miller b?  Then the HRRR started showing nothing…with the precip shield developing like 75 miles northeast if what all other guidance had. I remember us both saying to each other, We’ll die on the hill with the euro et all. No way all guidance is that wrong from like 12 hours and hrrr is right. Well… still waiting for my 4-8” from that one. 
 

Not saying I buy the hrrr and rap. We could cite 100 other times they were off on a crazy tangent. But I never ever feel comfortable unless we’re in the bullseye of some hecs with 20” 75 miles either side of me heading into it.  It’s slightly troubling and perplexing they are trending worse as we get closer.
 

People like to pretend it’s safe as some coping mechanism but I’ve had enough rug pulls and I guess I’m not a cops by lying to myself type. 

Was this the same storm that screw NYC

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16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

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Everyone would have taken this a few days ago, when it looked like an inch or 2 was the likely outcome.

BUT NOW IT FUCKING SUCKS!

Euro can do some wonky shit approaching game time. I would trust the 3km NAM/GFS combo over this.

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