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The Weekend Rule? Saturday 2/17 - The Icon Storm


DDweatherman
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13 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yeah... but both the HRRR/RAP has the best snows in south central PA now

Looking forward to snow on snow after the 6-8” I got Tuesday per the Hrrr/rap combo forecast 

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For once this season, we got the dreaded north + warmer trend within the final hours...

Won't make the biggest difference in most places but DC-proper definitely forfeits their max potential due to temps during onset of precip and worse dynamics during the event. SAD.  

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1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

I think so.  You for sure.  I could see you doubling my total.  I might get stuck at like 34 for a while.  

I think we get a 50% evap  in this so I’m thinking at 8pm DCA is 44 with a dew  point of 18 so when 90% rh  and snowing steadily temp is 31/32 and Kemp Mill  30/31

Lets see

its going to be best obs  thread in a while. Not the torture of 3am and 38F and waiting on rain changing to snow 

 

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Just now, Alfoman said:

For once this season, we got the dreaded north + warmer trend within the final hours...

Won't make the biggest difference in most places but DC-proper definitely forfeits their max potential due to temps during onset of precip and worse dynamics during the event. SAD.  

I think that's right for us.  We probably do pretty so-so in the 11 pm - 1 am segment and score in the last 2-3 hours.  

I could see 0.5" or something in the first couple hours, and then we'll score at the end.  I think 1-3" might be more realistic though.

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22 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yeah... but both the HRRR/RAP has the best snows in south central PA now

That band they are focused on up there is long gone. That’s not ours.  But the snow band for us is associated with the mid level fgen and better deep moisture transport. We just have to hope the CAMs are keying too much on that banding up in PA associated with the lift along the arctic boundary and are underdoing the southern max. 

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It looks a lot like it's last run but drier. At least we get raked for a few hours. This all basically falls in a 3-hour span

1708164000-QXUZ9ZnPbsc.png

I don't like the kuchera maps for this.  Better to come up with a predicted liquid amount and work from there.

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

I don't like the kuchera maps for this.  Better to come up with a predicted liquid amount and work from there.

psu wants the kuchera maps, you don't want the kuchera maps, chuck is posting snow depth... what's a guy who's only contribution is posting maps to do? either way it's drier... hate to be a deb but drier. 

18z

1708164000-GfUkVTb7MvQ.png

12z

1708164000-SlfM78EeLYQ.png

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50 currently downtown. LOL. blew past the projected high of 46. Typical DC  winter M.O. now... watch it cloud over just in time for sunset and then watch for the 1 degree drop every 4 hours. Will see what wet bulbs are with the low later with the low dews. But it's always just so warm in the immediate metro.  

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This seems to have really shifted. The two maxes still show up. The southern max has come up to just north of DC and the other max is now in Central PA. If we had not started so far south this would have been worse for many! This shift is sad for many in the southern part of the forum. 

Maybe it will expand a bit south. 2 to 4/3 to 5 inch seems the best we get with some local lucky folks. Get a little elevation, you may see more. I hope the shifts north and drier trends stop!

 

 

 

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Just now, ovechkin said:

50 currently downtown. LOL. blew past the projected high of 46. Typical DC  winter M.O. now... watch it cloud over just in time for sunset and then watch for the 1 degree drop every 4 hours. Will see what wet bulbs are with the low later with the low dews. But it's always just so warm in the immediate metro.  

47 in Mt. Pleasant. 

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