Potential extensive winter event, I-95 west and with again a chance for NYC first inch(es) of snow Mon or more likely Tue Jan 16, 2024 (serves as OBS thread as well)

[White Gorilla]

43 minutes ago, Picard said:

It's got to overcome some very low dewpoints too.  Probably a period of virga before the snow starts?

Yes, Captain. 

[donsutherland1]

Early snowfall amounts from the Mid-Atlantic Region:

Baltimore: 0.5"

Sterling, VA: 0.9"

Washington, DC: 0.7"

The highest figure so far is 2.8" at Bayard, WV.

Light snow and flurries were continuing to fall in Philadelphia and Wilmington, DE. Reading had seen its first flurries. Richmond had flipped to a period of moderate snow prior to the changeover to light rain, which has now occurred.

[bkviking]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yet no WWA for Suffolk. I would assume that changes soon

Just got WWA for north Suffolk county 

[The 4 Seasons]

Congrats guys on possibly the biggest storm in 2 years for the city. We're going with a widespread 2-5" for the tri-state area, a bit higher than what okx currently has but i think theyll tick up with pm forecast. 

[ForestHillWx]

24/0 here in Chester.. bone dry. 
 

[psv88]

4 minutes ago, bkviking said:

Just got WWA for north Suffolk county 

Makes sense with the ice 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Congrats guys on possibly the biggest storm in 2 years for the city. We're going with a widespread 2-5" for the tri-state area, a bit higher than what okx currently has but i think theyll tick up with pm forecast. 

Okx has 3 to 5 for the city, immediate suburbs and 4 to 6 North and west. 2 to 4 LI

[the_other_guy]

I think a lot of people on this forum are going to be disappointed tomorrow morning. Not because it’s not gonna snow. it’s definitely gonna snow. You guys are trying to make this a bigger storm than what it is. With each run you’re trying to make this seem like this is a 6 incher that’s coming in. Its not.

 

Just like last week with each run, you tried to make it seem like it wasn’t going to snow. You guys talk yourself into stuff over and over and then you get disappointed.

Last week was a 6 inch storm with the rain snow line in the Bronx. This is a 3 inch storm outside of urban areas.

[psv88]

Interesting. Upton sees Suffolk all the way to Nassau border going to plain rain for 7 hours. Not sure any model has that. It also increased some amounts to 3.5 or so for western Suffolk. Will be interesting to see. I doubt we hit the forecast high of 38. Temp busted low today as well

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Interesting. Upton sees Suffolk all the way to Nassau border going to plain rain for 7 hours. Not sure any model has that. It also increased some amounts to 3.5 or so for western Suffolk. Will be interesting to see. I doubt we hit the forecast high of 38. Temp busted low today as well

The models seem to rarely account for the North shore vs South shore differences on LI and just make the whole eastern half green. I could see more of a west vs east gradient here as opposed to north vs south but still think north shore of Suffolk is in an ok spot to stay mostly snow/frozen.

[TJW014]

Light snow reaching the ground here in Toms River. Sticking to the grass and boat cover. Ahead of schedule.

[HVSnowLover]

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I think a lot of people on this forum are going to be disappointed tomorrow morning. Not because it’s not gonna snow. it’s definitely gonna snow. You guys are trying to make this a bigger storm than what it is. With each run you’re trying to make this seem like this is a 6 incher that’s coming in. Its not.

 

Just like last week with each run, you tried to make it seem like it wasn’t going to snow. You guys talk yourself into stuff over and over and then you get disappointed.

Last week was a 6 inch storm with the rain snow line in the Bronx. This is a 3 inch storm outside of urban areas.

This is true, the main details aren't really changing, just some small waffles. This has gone probably from a 1-3 inch event yesterday to a 2-4 inch event area wide today. Someone probably gets 5 in the subforum but almost everyone will get 2-4.

[Allsnow]

4-6 let’s go!!! 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I think a lot of people on this forum are going to be disappointed tomorrow morning. Not because it’s not gonna snow. it’s definitely gonna snow. You guys are trying to make this a bigger storm than what it is. With each run you’re trying to make this seem like this is a 6 incher that’s coming in. Its not.

 

Just like last week with each run, you tried to make it seem like it wasn’t going to snow. You guys talk yourself into stuff over and over and then you get disappointed.

Last week was a 6 inch storm with the rain snow line in the Bronx. This is a 3 inch storm outside of urban areas.

It's going to be colder than last week

2-5 inches areawide

[Dark Star]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's going to be colder than last week

2-5 inches areawide

except the drier air is already eating away our totals...

[Rjay]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Interesting. Upton sees Suffolk all the way to Nassau border going to plain rain for 7 hours. Not sure any model has that. It also increased some amounts to 3.5 or so for western Suffolk. Will be interesting to see. I doubt we hit the forecast high of 38. Temp busted low today as well

Here you go

 

 

Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-
Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-
Southeast Suffolk-
329 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, then mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light
  glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New
  York.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday

 

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

except the drier air is already eating away our totals...

Too dry, too warm, to north, too east, too south, suppressed.....I mean there is always some reason to expect less than forecast. I can count on one hand the number of times my area jackpotted or got more than expected. I don't get worked up over anything less than 5 inches. My only worry is people haven't driven in snow for a few years now and they are likely to be bad at it.

[Byrdhousebv]

Here in eastern Monmouth Co., Temp has been holding steady around 29 since noon. DP rose from 0.3 to 8.0 in last 40 minutes. 

[the_other_guy]

wouldn’t it be funny if the main story of this ended up being the ice? 2-4 with ice on top is a much different story than 2-4 period. Much more impactful to travel

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

except the drier air is already eating away our totals...

It didn't even start

[MJO812]

Why is everyone downplaying this event ?

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why is everyone downplaying this event ?

Great ??? The models that I have been following have been gradually increasing totals through the day.  They actually seem to be in fairly good agreement.  The increase in expected totals from Mt. Holly speaks for itself.

[EastonSN+]

32 degrees snow continues in ocean city md. They had a banner year 2 years ago.

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Great ??? The models that I have been following have been gradually increasing totals through the day.  They actually seem to be in fairly good agreement.  The increase in expected totals from Mt. Holly speaks for itself.

Someone in the area is going to get 6 idk why people have to nitpick the numbers. 

[Rmine1]

6 hours ago, psv88 said:

You’re going to get snow stop. Maybe take a break from posting or post in banter?

I followed your advice, and took a break! For my efforts Upton rewarded me with a WWA!

do appreciate your frankness. Its dually noted 

[SnowGoose69]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

wouldn’t it be funny if the main story of this ended up being the ice? 2-4 with ice on top is a much different story than 2-4 period. Much more impactful to travel

Sort of what I said I was worried about this AM....system ticks a bit closer where we still get decent snows but guaranteed we get a wetter period of FZRA...hopefully its more sleet...the QPF seems to be ticking up which is not a surprise.  I could see places near the city ending up with 5 inches before it changes over if there is any banding at all

[Franklin0529]

22 minutes ago, Byrdhousebv said:

Here in eastern Monmouth Co., Temp has been holding steady around 29 since noon. DP rose from 0.3 to 8.0 in last 40 minutes. 

Flurrying up hwy 36 in hazlet 

[SnowGoose69]

This little virga area has helped saturate the atmosphere down to 5-6,000 over the metro...its still 8-9,000 further north in the LHV.  You need ceilings down to around 3500-4000 to begin snowing so this has helped that cause somewhat.  Snow should reach the ground by NYC by 8-9pm at worst

[jm1220]

If your expectation is for a couple inches to make it wintry outside, maybe 3” if lucky around the city, coast you’ll probably be fine. If you’re holding out for 4” or more you’ll probably be disappointed. Models including the LOL worthy but predictable late NW bump ones show the best snow NW of the city where it won’t change over. This isn’t a major event by any means but will put us all on the board finally. Hopefully Friday will be better. Considering there were zero threats until now it’s a big improvement. 

[Byrdhousebv]

Mood flakes here.