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January 6-7 Storm Discussion: we’re due?


WxUSAF
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30.2/29
Seeing as there is some snow on the ground and is pretty to see, going to get my kid to do some snow day baking. Something with chocolate and cherries. 

It’s pretty wintry out there right now. Snow is sticking to everything here. Millvillewx mentioned the valley here can do a good job holding the cold in and that’s exactly what’s happening so far.
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Rain and three mocking pings of sleet on my rain jacket. Or maybe they were three heavier rains? Anyway, walking back from the mailbox and enjoying the snowy pics from the westerners on a quiet, slow Saturday. 

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9 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

Deep Creek- Just starting to go back to like a 50/50 snow sleet combo as the heavier rates move in. Really hoping some heavier stuff can come through and bring back the pure snow 

After a lull in Canaan then sleet, we are back to mostly all snow with just a little sleet.  Really coming down now

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   Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV
   Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 061647Z - 062145Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region
   over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across
   much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly
   across south-central PA.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude
   shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward.
   Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across
   the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within
   the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow
   is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the
   shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant
   surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected
   to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across
   central NC and southeast VA. 

   These factors will result in an area of strong low-level
   frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into
   central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD,
   and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing
   moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the
   next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around
   1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas
   experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding
   appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered
   around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the
   shortwave continues northeastward.

image.png

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Just now, DDweatherman said:
   
   Areas affected...Central/Southern PA...Eastern WV
   Panhandle...Western/Central MD...Far Northern VA

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 061647Z - 062145Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are expected to increase across the region
   over the next several hours. Rates around 1"/hr are likely across
   much of the area, with localized 2"/hr rate possible, particularly
   across south-central PA.

   DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude
   shortwave trough over eastern TN, moving quickly northeastward.
   Regional radar imagery shows a large area of precipitation across
   the Mid-Atlantic and into southern portions of the Northeast, within
   the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave. Attendant low-level flow
   is forecast to strengthen over the next several hours as the
   shortwave continues northeastward. Additionally, the attendant
   surface low, which is currently over south-central NC, is expected
   to deepen over the next few hours as it moves northeastward across
   central NC and southeast VA. 

   These factors will result in an area of strong low-level
   frontogenesis over VA, with associated lift focused into
   central/southern PA, the eastern WV Panhandle, western/central MD,
   and far northern VA. Most of this area is currently experiencing
   moderate snow, but snowfall rates are expected to increase over the
   next few hours as the evolution described above occurs. Rates around
   1"/hr are likely across much of the area, with some areas
   experiencing 2"/hr, particularly south-central PA where banding
   appears most likely. Highest rates are expected to be centered
   around 20Z, with rates then likely diminishing over this area as the
   shortwave continues northeastward.

image.png

I’m just inside that pink line on the SE. I think they’re being little too generous with that area

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