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December 2023

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’d think at some point…something has to break in the more positive direction..no? I mean if it’s not this next one…the ones after  may? If nothing else, At some point the law of averages catches up with everything….this is no different. 

As much as Tblizz doesn’t want to hear it, a lot of things have gone right around here up until last winter. So for these parts we are due to go through a shit stretch. But yeah overall, would be nice to see something break right. 

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moneypitmike
moneypitmike

Apparently, I'm going to become grandfather x 3 today.  Daughter's at the hospital now.  Maybe they'll change the baby's name to Jesus   

wxmanmitch
wxmanmitch

Season's Greetings! I will admit I haven't been on here much of late, but Twitter/X has been such a s***show since Musk's hostile takeover of the platform that gleaning weather info off of there has b

ScituateWX
ScituateWX

About 2 here in Pembroke pretty cool daughter got to see snow for the first time!

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Warmer during the extended Christmas weekend, than it was during the extended thanksgiving weekend.

Par for the course. 

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’d think at some point…something has to break in the more positive direction..no? I mean if it’s not this next one…the ones after  may? If nothing else, At some point the law of averages catches up with everything….this is no different. 

I absolutely agree, but it doesn’t necessarily have to happen on our time scale. 

I mean we allude to it often but sometimes these things are decadal cycles, particularly the macro “lucky” streaks. 

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm very much agreeing on two aspects above: 

- the pattern changing may not pay out as the hopefuls want. I'm looking at this with guarded optimism... I'm with y'all. I certainly enjoy the big winter experience.  However, trying to be objective ... there are too many examples of poorly performing longer term air, and/or air-sea coupled teleconnectors in recent years to ignore.  Be it, the ENSO phases have observed as uncoupling at times.  EPO's not lasting as long in any given negative phase state(positive), because the flow speed is causing unusual RW instability ...  The machinery of the system is different ( leave it at that), enough so to not be as confident in any given intraseasonal pattern variance/projection.   Having said all that... the AO projection has trended negative at CPC in recent days. Lot of spread, but every member in said spread is negative. The mean looks pretty depressed.  So ... if the +PNA decays ... and then we see a new -EPO onset to reset the relay cycle/relationship between those two domain spaces, while the AO is negative, that's actually converging telecons    maybe  enough to overcome the above tendencies of lower performance.   

- X needs to go away.   Elan Musk is doing great things for humanity - his sacking of that enterprise is not one of them. 

You really think Twitter was any good before him?? All those media outlets have always been a sewer. I'd think some would thank him for finally helping them realize it. I seriously never found any useful weather info (or other) on there ever. If it was, it was drown out by hype generating forecasters. 

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This would be one of those examples where something would go right for once. I don’t have high hopes, but would be nice to grab something.

The level of run to run change in the long range is a reminder that when we finally do get something decent, it won't show up until within 5 days. I'm just happy to see some form of winter type pattern. Now we just wait for something to hopefully pop

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

You really think Twitter was any good before him?? All those media outlets have always been a sewer. I'd think some would thank him for finally helping them realize it. I seriously never found any useful weather info (or other) on there ever. If it was, it was drown out by hype generating forecasters. 

It was poorly worded because I ( of all people LOL ) was getting sick of writing at the moment. 

I meant he's good at some things and has managed to amass extraordinary wealth along the way.  Sticking his self-righteous position into anything he chooses, because he is wealthy enough to do so as he pleases, is bad. 

I don't condone Twitter myself - no. Never have. Don't have an account, at behest of others too. Never will.  I find it to be a glaring example of the dumbing down of general population - the plebeian echelons don't realize ( unwittingly so..) just how damaging that sort of pap on tap is to their mentality.  They are being held in place by the great pacification -  ... and the beauty of that is, when you don't use your mind, you lose your mind.  That's true of any system in the nature of organic life.  You know... it really is wonderful fodder for the cyber-punk, Sci Fi sub-genre as cinema or literature.  Probably already been done at least indirectly with plots like the "Matrix" or maybe "1984" etc.  In our reality, they are being dumbed down to inactive involvement by convenience and the addling dazzle of the display. And the more and more these kind of "lights" get turned on to fill the darkness of their ignorance, they become programmed to the bidding of corporation. 

That's a the book blurb right there - anyone wanna start turning phrases?  

We even experience something like that in here.  We are completely obsessing and evacuating our time looking for some kind of joy fix we get from this preoccupation with weather models-turned into entertainment cinema. The gift of unstoppable human intelligence would be much much better served, honored, and capable, if people would learn how the f* this stuff works, instead. 

It's idealistic.  Perhaps heavy-handed in some sense, too.  And of course implying a virtuosity as a failure is always a touchy aspect - gets people triggered ( obvious psycho-babble tropes as to why).  But the truth is, when we don't use our minds, we lose our minds.  

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would have at least given out extra credit points if he said that pattern wouldn’t work in 2023 but instead he just tried to gaslight everyone and say the weeklies were further south than the ‘83 map even though both of them are right in front of us to see.

Jan 1958 also had a similar look. What’s funny about Jan ‘58 is even though it was a pretty snowy month (esp interior), there was a storm late that month which was a perfect benchmark track that was mostly rain. Imagine what the discourse would be in here this season if a late January storm in an El Niño produced a mostly rain event on an ideal track….:lol:
 

 

Agree... When dealing with many El Nino winters, there are always going to be concerns about the ability to get widespread snows even when you get a great storm track; especially early in the winter.   I'm just happy to see storm frequency and intensity continuing since I expect it to pay dividends during Jan & Feb.  But, coverage and intensity of cold air masses will be an issue during much of the winter.  I'll roll the dice given active storm pattern.  While I am in no way looking at 2015 walking through the door, there are too many trends such as trend for Canadian heights like to shift westward, potential for PV disturbance, possible strato warming event and active storm track too dismiss the upside to Jan / Feb period.

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greenmtnwx

greenmtnwx

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, weathafella said:

All this angst over something we can't control.   I've come to realize that at my age, waking up healthy and functioning and having an idea where I am is a win.  Snow would just enhance it but lack of doesn't diminish it.

Pop the teeth in, change the Depends and head over to Frog Pond for some skating!

 

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

All this angst over something we can't control.   I've come to realize that at my age, waking up healthy and functioning and having an idea where I am is a win.  Snow would just enhance it but lack of doesn't diminish it.

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Well .. the 18z GEFs have arrived and continued the trend with 6 dm deeper at 500 mb .. carrying a two contoured closed low passing it along the climo track under L.I. this Friday night.   What I mean by 'climo' , that typically produces in SNE

Yet, the surface reflection still leaves something to be desired.  The mid and upper air features are in fact deepening, not weakening, through at least 6 z that night.  I dunno.  It's right on the edge.  I don't think this can deepen aloft much more or the sfc hand will be forced.

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ptspvd

ptspvd

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It was poorly worded because I ( of all people LOL ) was getting sick of writing at the moment. 

I meant he's good and some things and has managed to amass extraordinary wealth along the way.  Sticking his self-righteous position into anything he chooses, because he is wealthy enough to do so as he pleases, is bad. 

I don't condone Twitter myself - no. Never have. Don't have an account, at behest of others too. Never will.  I find it to be a glaring example of the dumbing down of general population - the plebeian echelons don't realize ( unwittingly so..) just how damaging that sort of pap on tap is to their mentality.  They are being held in place by the great pacification -  ... and the beauty of that is, when you don't use your mind, you lose your mind.  That's true of any system in the nature of organic life.  You know... it really is wonderful fodder for the cyber-punk, Sci Fi sub-genre as cinema or literature.  Probably already been done at least indirectly with plots like the "Matrix" or maybe "1984" etc.  People are being dumbed down to inactive involvement by convenience addling. And the more and more these kind of "lights" get turned on to fill the darkness of their ignorance, they become programmed to the bidding of corporation. 

That's a the book blurb right there - anyone wanna start turning phrases?  

We even experience something like that in here.  We are completely obsessing and evacuating our time looking for some kind of joy fix we get from this preoccupation with weather models-turned into entertainment cinema. The gift of unstoppable human intelligence would be much much better served, honored, and capable, if people would learning how the f* this stuff works, instead. 

It's idealistic.  Perhaps heavy-handed in some sense, too.  And of course implying a virtuosity as a failure is always a touchy aspect - gets people triggered ( obvious psycho-babble tropes as to why).  But the truth is, when we don't use our minds, we lose our minds.  

I am just an observer, rarely say a word but this post is the most accurate I have seen on this board.

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well .. the 18z GEFs have arrived and continued the trend with 6 dm deeper at 500 mb .. carrying a two contoured closed low passing it along the climo track under L.I. this Friday night.   What I mean by 'climo' , that typically produces in SNE

Yet, the surface reflection still leaves something to be desired.  The mid and upper air features are in fact deepening, not weakening, through at least 6 z that night.  I dunno.  It's right on the edge.  I don't think this can deepen aloft much more or the sfc hand will be forced.

Looks like the 00Z GFS may be seeing this to some extent 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Looks like the 00Z GFS may be seeing this to some extent 

Heh. I thought it regressed a little…

But I have been basing my previous observations on the ensemble mean because the operational runs across the board have been unusually stochastic. 

 

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