September 2023

[Allsnow]

30 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Most suburbs will be in the 50s, low 60s in the metro. 40s confined to well inland. 
 

winds stay up the next few days so there will not be great radiational cooling. 
 

40s will wait until October 

You won’t see 40’s until December on Long Island 

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

You won’t see 40’s until December on Long Island 

Spiders the size of rats by Christmas? 

[Volcanic Winter]

Not gonna lie, even though it’s meaningless in September hearing about a -PNA spike is like triggering PTSD for me. 

Being that this is NJ/NY, can’t we find someone to just kill it? Somebody’s gotta know a guy who knows a guy, right?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Not gonna lie, even though it’s meaningless in September hearing about a -PNA spike is like triggering PTSD for me. 

Being that this is NJ/NY, can’t we find someone to just kill it? Somebody’s gotta know a guy who knows a guy, right?

I know a guy 

[rclab]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I know a guy 

Good morning Anthony. Former Commissioner? Stay safe, as always ….

[forkyfork]

couldn't even get below mid 60s last night

[Rtd208]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I know a guy 

 

35 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning Anthony. Former Commissioner? Stay safe, as always ….

Remember that time they found Frankie Carbone in the meat truck? 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Septembers have been getting steadily warmer since the 80s and 90s. Most of the Septembers in recent years have averaged over 70° around NYC. So plenty of top 10 warmest Septembers.

 

Chris, to your knowledge, has there ever been another decade of warm Septembers like this?  The trend is so pronounced that people who don’t obsess over the weather like us seem to be noticing.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

You won’t see 40’s until December on Long Island 

Parakeets in @Cfa garden until January 

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

9/13

 

EWR: 83
ACY: 83
New Bnswck: 83
PHL: 83
BLM: 82
TEB:  82
LGA: 81
TTN: 81
ISP: 80
JFK: 79
NYC: 79

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

Dune road always the first to washover 

[SACRUS]

 

72 / 51.  On way to a gorgeous stretch of weather through the weekend.  Only clouds from Lee (maybe from NJ shore east) Saturday (9/16) and waves/surf.  Mid upper 70s and then back near or low 80s by Sun (9/17).  Mon (9/18) next shot at showers/rain.  Ridging into the east but some onshore flow and you see potential for cut off low undercutting an any ridging, but overall warm finish to Sep, need to watch for rain chances if anything cuts of nearby.

 

Lee nearing the Atlantic coast ME - Can 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Chris, to your knowledge, has there ever been another decade of warm Septembers like this?  The trend is so pronounced that people who don’t obsess over the weather like us seem to be noticing.

This is something new. I left off 2023 since we are only halfway through the month. But we are on track for another top 5 or 10 warmest September. The average temperature will easily remain above 70°. Notice the big 2° jump in average temperature since 2010. Prior to that, the decadal averages were fairly steady from 1980 to 2009. Slower but steady temperature increase from 1950 to 1980. I am guessing this is a function of the rapidly warming SSTs to our east possibly in conjunction with the lower Arctic sea ice and warmer summers. So not much cold available to get fall going in September anymore. We tend to have later fall foliage peaks and leaf drops. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Sep	Season
Mean	70.7	70.7
2022	69.7	69.7
2021	72.5	72.5
2020	69.1	69.1
2019	70.8	70.8
2018	71.4	71.4
2017	70.9	70.9
2016	71.8	71.8
2015	73.4	73.4
2014	69.8	69.8
2013	67.2	67.2
2012	69.5	69.5
2011	71.2	71.2
2010	71.6	71.6

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Sep	Season
Mean	68.9	68.9
2009	66.9	66.9
2008	69.5	69.5
2007	70.1	70.1
2006	66.6	66.6
2005	73.5	73.5
2004	69.6	69.6
2003	68.6	68.6
2002	70.5	70.5
2001	67.4	67.4
2000	66.4	66.4

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Sep	Season
Mean	68.8	68.8
1999	69.3	69.3
1998	70.3	70.3
1997	66.9	66.9
1996	68.0	68.0
1995	68.6	68.6
1994	69.7	69.7
1993	69.1	69.1
1992	69.6	69.6
1991	67.9	67.9
1990	68.6	68.6

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Sep	Season
Mean	68.6	68.6
1989	69.9	69.9
1988	68.0	68.0
1987	68.7	68.7
1986	68.5	68.5
1985	70.2	70.2
1984	65.4	65.4
1983	70.6	70.6
1982	66.7	66.7
1981	67.1	67.1
1980	70.8	70.8

[Dan76]

Leaf drop used to be Halloween now its middle of Nov here.

[winterwx21]

Beautiful outside with dewpoints down to the low 50s, and heading down into the high 40s this afternoon. They'll stay in the 40s the next 2 days. Just a brief minor humidity spike sunday night into monday (dewpoints near 60) with a couple showers possible, and then back to spectacular weather tuesday and wednesday with dewpoints falling back down to the low 50s. So overall a nice low humidity stretch over the next week, as you would hope for in mid September. 

Long range looks warm as bluewave talked about, but in late September that type of pattern would result in some days with high temps in the low 80s and dewpoints around 60. Nice extended summer weather. 

[rclab]

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Remember that time they found Frankie Carbone in the meat truck? 

…… omertà …..  as always …..

[psv88]

What a day. Top 10.

[winterwx21]

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What a day. Top 10.

Yep definitely a top 10. 79 degrees with a dewpoint of 48 here, and not a cloud in the sky. Spectacular weather today. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records

 

Highs:

EWR" 94 (2016)
NYC: 93 (1931)
LGA: 92 (2016)


Lows:

EWR: 45 (1975)
NYC: 46 (1975)
LGA: 48 (1975)

 

Historical:

 

1928: A violent, estimated F4 tornado, with winds of 200 mph, tore across Rockford, Illinois. The tornado first touched down 8 miles south-southwest of Rockford and moved across the southeast part of the city. The tornado was on the ground for 25 miles with a width varying from 200 to 500 feet. A total of 14 people were killed, with around 100 injuries reported in Rockford alone. Two hundred buildings were damaged or destroyed. 

1937 - The mercury soared to 92 degrees at Seattle, WA, a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1944 - A very destructive hurricane swept across Cape Hatteras and Chesapeake Bay, side swiped New Jersey and Long Island, and crossed southeastern Massachusetts. The hurricane killed more than four hundred persons, mainly at sea. The hurricane destroyed the Atlantic City NJ boardwalk. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1970 - The temperature at Fremont, OR, dipped to 2 above zero to equal the state record for September set on the 24th in 1926. (The Weather Channel)

 

1977: Severe thunderstorms produced several tornadoes in eastern Arkansas, killing one.

1987 - Barrow, AK, received 5.1 inches of snow, a record for September. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Minnesota to Texas. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced baseball size hail at Laporte City, and 80 mph winds at Laurens. Hail caused more than ten million dollars damage to crops in Iowa. Thunderstorms in Missouri produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Missouri City and Kansas City. A thunderstorm in Texas deluged the town of Fairlie with two inches of rain in just two hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Hurricane Gilbert made the first of its two landfalls on Mexico, producing 170 mph winds at Cozumel. (The Weather Channel)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Texas panhandle during the evening hours. One thunderstorm spawned a strong (F-2) tornado in the southwest part of Amarillo, and deluged the area with five inches of rain. The heavy rain left roads under as much as five feet of water, and left Lawrence Lake a mile out of its banks. Hurricane Gilbert lost some of its punch crossing the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Its maximum winds diminished to 120 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably cool weather prevailed across the south central U.S. Eight cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Raton NM with a reading of 30 degrees. The afternoon high of 59 degrees at Topeka KS marked their third straight record cool maximum temperature. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle WA reported a record eight days in a row of 80 degree weather in September. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

2005: Hurricane Ophelia caused some damage and beach erosion along the United States coastline from Florida to North Carolina. The closest approach occurred on September 14 and 15 with its western eyewall crossing land and the eye remaining just offshore in the Carolinas.

 

2008: Hurricane Ike became extratropical on this day. The St. Louis Metropolitan Area experienced hurricane conditions, with Ike's remnants inflicting severe damage to homes. Several areas in Illinois and Indiana, already flooded by the frontal boundary to the north, saw significant additional rainfall. Due to flooding in Chicago, a state of emergency was declared for Cook County due to flooding of the Des Plaines River. Hurricane-force wind gusts were reported to the east of the center across parts of Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania with significant wind damage including structural damage to buildings and trees.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep definitely a top 10. 79 degrees with a dewpoint of 48 here, and not a cloud in the sky. Spectacular weather today. 

Just hate the fucking yellow jackets 

[LoboLeader1]

High of 75F here this afternoon, great day to be outdoors. Headed north to the Berkshires this afternoon for a long weekend.

[donsutherland1]

Tonight could be the coolest night so far in many areas in the northern Mid-Atlantic area. Readings in New York City could dip below 60° for the first time this fall. Temperatures in the suburbs will fall into the lower and middle 50s. Some of the more distant or colder suburbs could see temperatures drop into the 40s.

Tomorrow will then be fair but unseasonably cool. Much of the region will likely see temperatures top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Hurricane Lee will streadily move toward North American landfall. The guidance favors landfall in New Brunswick, but landfall along the Maine or Nova Scotia coast cannot be ruled out. Eastern Long Island and eastern New England could some periods of heavy rain and gusty winds as Lee passes offshore.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -13.37 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.113 today.

On September 12 the MJO was not available. The September 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.188 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.6° (2.4° above normal).

 

[psv88]

Still 67 here. Mid 50s ain’t happening 

[SACRUS]

 

9/14

 

EWR: 81
ACY: 80
JFK: 80
PHL: 80
BLM: 79
LGA: 79
New Bnswck: 79
TEB: 78
ISP: 77
TTN: 77
NYC: 77
 

[ForestHillWx]

56

[BxEngine]

A lot of the metro already into the 50s. 

[Snowlover11]

great night to sleep.  crack the windows open for a nice cross breeze

[MJO812]

61 here 

[dmillz25]

58 here