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September 2023


Stormlover74
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Slow-moving thunderstorms brought torrential downpours to parts of the region producing flash flooding. Greenwich, NJ picked up 5.00" of rain this afternoon.

Tomorrow will be a quieter day. It will be partly to mostly sunny and pleasant. Only a few isolated showers or thundershowers are possible. Most of the region should be dry.

A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday with some heavy thunderstorms. Some street and highway flooding is possible. Behind it, parts of the region could see their coolest temperatures so far this fall.

Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm over the next several days. Atlantic Canada faces the highest risk of landfall, but New England landfall still cannot completely be ruled out. Moreover, parts of eastern New England could experience heavy rains and high winds as Lee passes offshore.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around September 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -27.45 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.320 today.

On September 9 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.507 (RMM). The September 8-adjusted amplitude was 2.511 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal).

 

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Forget the cooler weather. I need 80s with a dew point of 40 to dry everything out nicely. Need to paint the front porch and stain the back. Hell I might need to replace some wood now from it starting to rot in all the moisture. This is ridiculous now. I’m so beyond this crap. Lightning fried the aquastat control panel for our boiler. Can we just have some normal weather now? 

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13 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Forget the cooler weather. I need 80s with a dew point of 40 to dry everything out nicely. Need to paint the front porch and stain the back. Hell I might need to replace some wood now from it starting to rot in all the moisture. This is ridiculous now. I’m so beyond this crap. Lightning fried the aquastat control panel for our boiler. Can we just have some normal weather now? 

Move to Suffolk county. It barely rains in the summer. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Pretty incredible repeat of the July pattern. .11 at the south hold meso. Meanwhile over 6” in the Bronx. 

For once I lucked out IMBY but it's generally the same garbage July pattern. Endless rain inland, high dewpoint swamp here. And I agree, this time of year it shouldn't be happening.

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

For once I lucked out IMBY but it's generally the same garbage July pattern. Endless rain inland, high dewpoint swamp here. And I agree, this time of year it shouldn't be happening.

Storms keep blowing up over the sound and immediate north shore. I think it may have to do with the sound being nearly 80 degrees. Mid island getting screwed all week. 
 

Jets baby

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2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Forget the cooler weather. I need 80s with a dew point of 40 to dry everything out nicely. Need to paint the front porch and stain the back. Hell I might need to replace some wood now from it starting to rot in all the moisture. This is ridiculous now. I’m so beyond this crap. Lightning fried the aquastat control panel for our boiler. Can we just have some normal weather now? 

Yeah in the last year or two our back deck has really begun to rot.  This kind of weather doesn't help, because the high humidity is just keeping the wood damp.

I've been noticing something too, that when we have this high humidity mixed with the rain, the air has been smelling really weird.  I thought it was just around my backyard or neighborhood, but even across town and beyond I smell it.  Should clear out with the low dewpoint airmass coming in soon.

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24 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yeah in the last year or two our back deck has really begun to rot.  This kind of weather doesn't help, because the high humidity is just keeping the wood damp.

I've been noticing something too, that when we have this high humidity mixed with the rain, the air has been smelling really weird.  I thought it was just around my backyard or neighborhood, but even across town and beyond I smell it.  Should clear out with the low dewpoint airmass coming in soon.

What you smell is New Jersey stanky air. Ain’t going anywhere…

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The next 8 days are averaging   72degs.(65/79) or +2.     ***Wake of Lee brings sinking air and sunny skies with T's in the 70's for Thurs-Mon.      Next hurricane threat about Sept. 26th. around here.

***EURO seems to come too close for this forecast, however.

Reached 84 at 5pm yesterday.

Today:   78-82, wind nw, variable clouds, 70 tomorrow AM.

70*(96%RH) here at 7am.      73* at 9am.     76* at Noon.     81* at 3pm.

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10 hours ago, psv88 said:

Move to Suffolk county. It barely rains in the summer. 

Yesterday was the anomaly. 

8 hours ago, psv88 said:

Storms keep blowing up over the sound and immediate north shore. I think it may have to do with the sound being nearly 80 degrees. Mid island getting screwed all week. 
 

The water was 5" deep on some of the roads I was driving on in Middle Island yesterday during some torrential downpours. 

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Another nickle and dime rainfall day here last 24 hours.  Total = .15".

Total since last Wednesday = 1.31".

Nothing noteworthy in terms of wind, thunder / lightning, heavy rainfall rates.  Just off and on passing moderate to briefly heavy showers / T-showers for the last 6 days.

 

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