September 2023

[bluewave]

Torrential downpour here at KHVN.

 

[FPizz]

.53

[WestBabylonWeather]

Don’t think so. It looks like the backend will be north of the area before the band reaches our area 

Brutal if it goes north before reaching Suffolk.


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[Rmine1]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Brutal if it goes north before reaching Suffolk.


.

Hopefully it doesn’t, but the radar and the slow eastward progression says otherwise 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Brutal if it goes north before reaching Suffolk.


.

I’m missing the rain by 2 miles all week. Is what it is. As long as it doesn’t happen in the winter I’m ok with it 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

I’m missing the rain by 2 miles all week. Is what it is. As long as it doesn’t happen in the winter I’m ok with it 

I'm sure you'll get plenty of rain this winter

[wdrag]

Continuing personal theme of Sept 7-14.

Amounts as posted by NWS in the subforum seem to be missing 'isolated'big amounts  3-4.8" so far, as documented in state climate data or prior LSR's.  This is becoming important in assessment.  My concern is not only north of I78 in NJ/PA, se NYS but now CT, through Wednesday evening.

Scranton area: There have been road washouts/bridges out/injuries/ and at least 1 fatality vicinity Scranton PA and while that is not in the NYC subforum, it does suggest isolated potential in the subforum... this afternoon-tonight, and Tuesday night-Wednesday. 

See attachments for documentation of FF ( tiny sampler), FFG which I think in our area if exceeds 2.5": in 6 hours, you'll get FF (NOT talking the general river flooding, but what I feel is the more dangerous isolated hillside/urban runoff/creek FF).  

 

and added the 12z/10 SPC HREF MAX rainfall potential which is not necessarily very reliable but suggests renewed heavy convection later today/tonight with potential for "isolated" max amounts 3-5", ne PA/

 

This is not a benign pattern, though many in our NYC subforum will only nickel and dime for the next day or two.  

and this is only with PW of near 1.75" through tonight and again Wednesday morning. 

 

[Brian5671]

Walt your posts are fantastic.   Glad to have you back.

-

Locally getting very heavy rains and rolling thunder....

[WestBabylonWeather]

We did it. Downpour




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[Rtd208]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Continuing personal theme of Sept 7-14.

Amounts as posted by NWS in the subforum seem to be missing 'isolated'big amounts  3-4.8" so far, as documented in state climate data or prior LSR's.  This is becoming important in assessment.  My concern is not only north of I78 in NJ/PA, se NYS but now CT, through Wednesday evening.

Scranton area: There have been road washouts/bridges out/injuries/ and at least 1 fatality vicinity Scranton PA and while that is not in the NYC subforum, it does suggest isolated potential in the subforum... this afternoon-tonight, and Tuesday night-Wednesday. 

See attachments for documentation of FF ( tiny sampler), FFG which I think in our area if exceeds 2.5": in 6 hours, you'll get FF (NOT talking the general river flooding, but what I feel is the more dangerous isolated hillside/urban runoff/creek FF).  

 

and added the 12z/10 SPC HREF MAX rainfall potential which is not necessarily very reliable but suggests renewed heavy convection later today/tonight with potential for "isolated" max amounts 3-5", ne PA/

 

This is not a benign pattern, though many in our NYC subforum will only nickel and dime for the next day or two.  

and this is only with PW of near 1.75" through tonight and again Wednesday morning. 

 

Walt,

So far today I have picked up 0.89" of rain. 3 day total so far of 1.90"

Have to see how much additional rain I pick up today and tonight.

[scootmandu]

It has been pouring since 11 AM, with rates as high as 2.72/hr. But we keep getting lulls and then periods of intense rain and thunder. Currently at 1.11 inches. All the local forecasts totally missed the boat. All official rainfall forecast, even now, say about 35 total for the entire day. Areas to our east and southeast have not even had rain, here was are getting storms generating just southwest of us that then build while over us. There really should be some sort of flash flood advisory for parts of Northwestern Suffolk. We are on the North Shore, at LI Sound, several miles west of Sunken Meadow.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Rmine. You got your rain


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[bluewave]

1.37 here at KHVN in only 30 minutes with plenty of low lying street and parking lot flooding.

[Jacob brooklyn]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

What

Hurricane model you posted 

[psv88]

Light rain now. We did it!

[jm1220]

Storms firing now out to Rt 111. Hopefully they can keep firing east from the outflow boundary. Back here we had the one downpour and that was it. Some light rain from the other stuff over Nassau. At least I got something. 

[MJO812]

Active tropics 

[winterwarlock]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@winterwarlock the rain is back 

we shall see...my area only picked up about an inch in our 3 days of rain..rather meh...considering we had basically nothing in 10 days before that

 

luckily timing was great for the game yesterday with the storms rolling through before we started tailgaiting for the ru game but not during or during the game

[psv88]

Rain is just about done. Quick shower. Maybe we got 0.10. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

At this point I'll take a front that will at least clear out the humidity!  Getting a little tired of the warmth + humidity.

Yep and that's coming for later in the week. Looks like a nice stretch of low humidity weather starting on thursday. Dewpoints could get down to the high 40s late week. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Active tropics 

If one of these random runs west of the ensemble means near Cape Cod actually happen, then it will be a big win for the newer AI models. This will be the big test case coming up. Imagine if they end up being right. Maybe we could actually nail a day 7-10 snowstorm forecast for once.

 

 

 

[Jacob brooklyn]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

At this point I'll take a front that will at least clear out the humidity!  Getting a little tired of the warmth + humidity.

Just a little tired??

[Jacob brooklyn]

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Rain is just about done. Quick shower. Maybe we got 0.10. 

So I can take my E scooter out later?

[guinness77]

1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Rmine. You got your rain


.

Didn’t last long. Looks like a blob coming up from Jersey in a few hours but none of it looks severe at this point.  

[uofmiami]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If one of these random runs west of the ensemble means near Cape Cod actually happen, then it will be a big win for the newer AI models. This will be the big test case coming up. Imagine if they end up being right. Maybe we could actually nail a day 7-10 snowstorm forecast for once.

 

 

 

We can only hope.

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

We can only hope.

The funny thing about the modeling with Lee is that all the models have been taking turns having these west of ensemble mean tracks from run to run. So there is still some question on how fast the trough lifts out of the NE later in the week and ridging builds in behind it. If that trough can’t dig enough, then we won’t have it to safely boot LEE OTS for interests near the Cape. So there is a lot riding on the track in terms of storm impacts and the future of AI in weather forecasting. We could only imagine how AI might impact winter storm forecasting if they show more skill than the regular models with Lee and other test cases going forward. 

[Intensewind002]

Picked up 0.03” of rain earlier today, only 0.04” for the month of September so far

[lee59]

.36 inch of rain here. First rain all month.

[forkyfork]

the hrrr has been consistently showing 2-6" of rain with this next batch but its placement looks a little too far north and the heavy amounts could include parts of the metro

 

[donsutherland1]

Some showers and thundershowers will be possible tomorrow. Readings will top out in the upper 70s to perhaps low 80s.

A strong cold front will cross the region on Wednesday with some thunderstorms. Behind it, parts of the region could see their coolest temperatures so far this fall.

Hurricane Lee will remain a powerful storm over the next several days. Atlantic Canada faces the highest risk of landfall, but New England landfall still cannot completely be ruled out. The picture will clear in coming days.

The ECMWF weeklies had forecast temperatures to average above to much above normal across the region for the September 4-11 period. That forecast is verifying with the ongoing heatwave. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.6°C for the week centered around August 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.32°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -21.57 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.283 today.

On September 8 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.509 (RMM). The September 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.666 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.5° (2.3° above normal).