SACRUS Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 75 / 69 and cloudy. Should clear out by the noon time sunny and warm low-mid 80s. Back to more clouds tomorrow Thue (8/17)ahead of the advancing trough with showers / storms Fri (8/18) but does not look very widespread at this point. Beyond there Sat (8/19) - Wed (8/23) ridge builds over KS peaking at 594 - near 600 DM. NW flow turns warm- hot by Mon (8/21) - Tue (8/22) before more N/NE flow pushes back heat. The strongest heat looks to skim the area Mon - Tue with brunt of the 850MB >20c mostly south and west of the area. Later in the month war / humid overall with rising heights and tropics active. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (1944) NYC: 96 (1944) LGA:96 (1997) Lows: EWR: 57 (1945) year to year records both ways NYC: 55 (1880) LGA: 58 (1979) Historical: 1777 - The Battle of Bennington, delayed a day by rain, was fought. The rain delayed British reinforcements, and allowed the Vermont Militia to arrive in time, enabling the Americans to win a victory by defeating two enemy forces, one at a time. (David Ludlum) 1909 - A dry spell began in San Bernardino County of southern California that lasted until the 6th of May in 1912, a stretch of 994 days! Another dry spell, lasting 767 days, then began in October of 1912. (The Weather Channel) 1916 - Altapass, NC, was deluged with 22.22 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather from Oklahoma to Wisconsin and Lower Michigan. Thunderstorms in central Illinois produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Springfield which toppled two large beer tents at the state fair injuring 58 persons. Thunderstorms also drenched Chicago IL with 2.90 inches of rain, making August 1987 their wettest month of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from North Dakota to Lower Michigan during the day. Nine tornadoes were sighted in North Dakota, and thunderstorms also produced hail three inches in diameter at Lakota ND, and wind gusts to 83 mph at Marais MI. Thirty-seven cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Rockford IL with a reading of 104 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region produced golf ball size hail at La Junta CO, Intercanyon CO, and Custer SD. Afternoon thunderstorms over South Texas drenched Brownsville with 2.60 inches of rain. Fair skies allowed viewing of the late evening full lunar eclipse from the Great Lakes Region to the Northern and Central Plains Region, and across much of the western third of the country. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1992: One of the most destructive United States hurricanes of record started modestly as a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 14. The wave spawned a tropical depression on August 16, which became Tropical Storm Andrew the next day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 .75 here overnight and 1.41 between yesterday and today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 I feel like we have been hearing about the building WAR all summer long only for it to keep getting pushed back. We are already starting to see the same old hype for an epic winter to generate clicks. While I am excited for winter and it cannot be as bad as last one (I hope), I don’t anticipate this extremely wet pattern will continue. We will see. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 I'm in se Bergen County and apparently we got hit with a thunderstorm overnight. Mom's tree took a huge hit with large limb falling and we got under 1" of rain. Was shocked I slept through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, steve392 said: I'm in se Bergen County and apparently we got hit with a thunderstorm overnight. Mom's tree took a huge hit with large limb falling and we got under 1" of rain. Was shocked I slept through it Good morning everyone. CPK received 1.33 between 02:52 and 05:51. I awoke briefly during the one hour that accrued .75 but the sound of the rain lulled me back to sleep. Stay well, as always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Wait I picked up 1.07 overnight? Didn't even know it rained I slept through it too, lol. I guess there wasn't any thunder to wake us up. Glad we got a good soaking though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: I slept through it too, lol. I guess there wasn't any thunder to wake us up. Glad we got a good soaking though. How much did you get? My total seems suspiciously high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: How much did you get? My total seems suspiciously high 0.53" here. A nice watering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 well i had my window open with a screen not thinking it would rain and it got wet on the window sill... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: How much did you get? My total seems suspiciously high Anyone have a radar loop? HRRR was consistent in showing our area getting good rain overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 45 minutes ago, nycwinter said: well i had my window open with a screen not thinking it would rain and it got wet on the window sill... Thoughts and prayers 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob brooklyn Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Question? Is it.....?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 16, 2023 Share Posted August 16, 2023 Picked up another .78” here over night. About 2.59” in total since the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Wednesday through Saturday will likely see readings that are somewhat cooler than normal. Saturday morning could be the coolest morning so far this month as a reinforcing shot of cool air moves into the region. Warmer air will return to close the weekend. Abnormal heat could persist across the southern U.S. into the fourth week of August. Afterward, the intensity of the heat should fade even as the heat expands in geographic scope. The weekend could witness rain and noticeably cooler temperatures in Phoenix with the mercury staying below 100° in Phoenix on Sunday. In the Pacific Northwest, the current extreme heat event is concluding. Portland topped out at 103° (old record: 102°, 1977), its 4th consecutive 100° or above reading. No August had ever seen 4 or more consecutive 100° temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around August 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.32°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.12°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The probability of an East-based El Niño event has increased. The SOI was -9.65 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.414 today. On August 15 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.210 (RMM). The August 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.134 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 59% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.7° (0.4° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 17, 2023 Author Share Posted August 17, 2023 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 8/16 PHL:87 EWR: 85 New Brnswck: 85 TTN: 85 ACY: 83 TEB: 82 NYC: 82 JFK: 81 LGA: 80 BLM: 80 ISP: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 77degs.(69/85) or +1. Reached 84 here yesterday at 5pm. Today: 78-82, wind e., m. cloudy, Rain late?, 73 tomorrow AM. 74*(93%RH) here at 7am. 76* at 9am. 78* at Noon. 79* at 1pm. 78* at 3pm. 74* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Dry here but it's pouring just to my west, can't see across the Hackensack. Radar estimating 1" totals in a couple of spots in newark 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Really stark contrast of 90+ days this year vs last. And there may only be a few more to add given the coming pattern. Monday for sure 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 anybody else have like a black soot all over their leaves and outdoor plastic? I noticed the swing set looking particularly gross, and I went down to look at it and thought it was mold, but it isn’t mold. It almost looks like soot from the wildfires but I’m not sure. On closer inspection the leaves have it too. Wipes right off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Really stark contrast of 90+ days this year vs last. And there may only be a few more to add given the coming pattern. Monday for sure Around half the number of 90° days so far. Data for January 1, 2023 through August 17, 2023Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 ESTELL MANOR COOP 25 HARRISON COOP 25 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 22 Newark Area ThreadEx 22 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 22 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 18 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 40 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 Newark Area ThreadEx 40 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 39 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 36 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 35 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 34 HARRISON COOP 34 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 34 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 31 ESTELL MANOR COOP 31 Data for January 1, 2023 through August 17, 2023Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 WEST POINT COOP 13 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 12 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 11 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 11 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 11 PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 9 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 8 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8 SHRUB OAK COOP 8 DANSVILLE COOP 8 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 8 Albany Area ThreadEx 8 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 8 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 29 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 26 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 26 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 26 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 26 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 26 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 23 Albany Area ThreadEx 22 SHRUB OAK COOP 22 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Really stark contrast of 90+ days this year vs last. And there may only be a few more to add given the coming pattern. Monday for sure you guys said those 90s didn't count because of lower humidity 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: anybody else have like a black soot all over their leaves and outdoor plastic? I noticed the swing set looking particularly gross, and I went down to look at it and thought it was mold, but it isn’t mold. It almost looks like soot from the wildfires but I’m not sure. On closer inspection the leaves have it too. Wipes right off Probably some type of insect excretion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: anybody else have like a black soot all over their leaves and outdoor plastic? I noticed the swing set looking particularly gross, and I went down to look at it and thought it was mold, but it isn’t mold. It almost looks like soot from the wildfires but I’m not sure. On closer inspection the leaves have it too. Wipes right off I noticed this too. Black soot floating on top of the water in the pool filter intake, and it only occurs after it rains. Not sure what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Not a bad Drought Monitor for the middle of August! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 80 degrees saturday and mid 80s sunday with dewpoints in the 50s both days. Spectacular weekend coming up. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: Not a bad Drought Monitor for the middle of August! Yup, complete turnaround from a month ago. Mushrooms now popping up on my back lawn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, MANDA said: Not a bad Drought Monitor for the middle of August! It's amazing that I'm cutting the lawn once a week this time of year. It's been a long time since I've seen grass grow like this during the heart of summer. It looks more like spring out there. I never would have imagined this in June when the grass was burnt out and we were heading into a drought. This was a spectacular turnaround. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted August 17, 2023 Share Posted August 17, 2023 Storms popping up over Hudson county. Atmosphere just feels rope for more. Huge rain drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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