April 2023

[FPizz]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Where's the rain?  Almost nothing on radar

Had a downpour down here this morning around 530 that woke me up.  Lasted a short time but dropped .30"

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Had a downpour down here this morning around 530 that woke me up.  Lasted a short time but dropped .30"

Just some mist and drizzle here-we also missed most of Saturday's rain so it's dry.

[SACRUS]

Low of 53 now up to 64 and sunny skies.   Cooler Tue before warming back Wed (4/19) and Thu (4/20) and a much warmer Fri (4/21).  Front this weekend could bring rain Sat (4/22).  Beyond there cut off low into the NE could keep it cooler than previously forecast for the remainder of the month.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

 

EWR: 97 (2002)
NYC: 96 (2002)
LGA: 94 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 30 (1980)
NYC: 28 (1875)
LGA: 32 (1980)

 

Historical:

 

1922 - A family of at least six tornadoes caused death and destruction along parts of a 210 mile path from north of Ogden IL to Allen County OH, killing sixteen persons. A post card, picked up in Madison County IN, was found 124 miles away near Mount Cory OH. (The Weather Channel)

 

1942: West Palm Beach, FL was soaked by 8.35 inches of rain in just two hours.

1953 - One of the few severe hailstorms accompanied by snow, sleet, glaze, and rain, pelted parts of Kay, Osage, Creek, Tulsa, Washington, and Rogers Counties in northeastern Oklahoma late in the day. Nearly 10,000 insurance claims were filed. (The Weather Channel)

1965 - The Mississippi River reached a flood crest at Saint Paul MN four feet higher than any previous mark. During the next two weeks record levels were reached along the Mississippi between Saint Paul and Hannibal MO. Flooding caused more than 100 million dollars damage, but timely warnings kept the death toll down to just twelve persons. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Twenty-two cities in the central U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Temperatures warmed into the 70s and 80s from the High Plains Region to the Mississippi Valley, with readings in the low 90s reported in the Southern Plains Region. Tulsa OK hit 92 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Heavy snow blanketed northern Arizona. Snowfall totals ranged up to 16 inches at Pinetop, with 10 inches reported at Flagstaff. Afternoon thunderstorms spawned a couple of tornadoes in Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Missoula MT was blanketed with four inches of snow, and Glasgow MT reported a record cold morning low of 14 degrees above zero. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - High winds in northern Utah, gusting to 90 mph in Weber County, blew a trampoline through a living room window, and strong winds associated with a cold front crossing the Middle Atlantic Coast Region gusted to 75 mph in the Chesapeake Bay area of Virginia. Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Valentine NE was the cold spot in the nation with a record low of 10 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2002: The heat wave continued across the east as high pressure off the Carolina blocked a frontal boundary across the Plains. Records for the date included:

Newark, New Jersey: 97

NYC Central Park: 96

Hartford, Connecticut: 95

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: 95

Reagan National Airport, DC: 95 (Tied monthly high)

Lynchburg, Virginia: 94

Atlantic City, New Jersey: 94

Norfolk, Virginia: 93

Providence, Rhode Island: 93

Boston, Massachusetts: 93

Portland, Maine: 80

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Comparing the means for April 1-16 of other years, I find that 2023 is in second place to 2010: 

YEAR ____ Mean 1-16 ___ Mean  APR ____ Rank

2010 _____ 60.4 ________ 57.9 _______________ 1

2023 _____ 59.9 ________ ?? ?? ______________ ??

1945 _____ 57.7 ________ 55.6 ______________ t-10

1991 _____ 56.4 ________ 55.7 _______________ t-8

1981 _____ 56.2 ________ 56.2 _______________ 4

2017 _____ 55.9 ________ 57.2 _______________ 2

2006 _____ 54.9 ________ 55.7 ______________ t-8

2012 _____ 54.8 ________ 54.8 ______________ 21

1980 _____ 54.7 ________ 54.5 _____________ t-23

2002 _____ 54.7 ________ 57.9 ______________ t-5

1968 _____ 54.6 ________ 55.0 _____________ t-17

1921 _____ 54.4 ________ 56.1 _______________ t-5

1941 _____ 53.8 ________ 56.9 ______________ 3

1969 _____ 53.8 ________ 55.9 ______________ 7

1910 _____ 53.7 ________ 55.1 ______________ t-15

2019 _____ 53.7 ________ 55.5 _____________ t-12

1955 _____ 53.6 ________ 53.5 _____________ t-40

1999 _____ 53.3 ________ 53.5 _____________ t-40

2022 _____ 53.3 ________ 52.8 _____________ 54

2014 _____ 52.9 ________ 52.3 _____________ t-57

2021 _____ 52.8 ________ 54.6 ______________22

2005 _____ 52.6 ________ 55.1 _____________ t-15

1959 _____ 52.5 ________ 53.8 _____________ t-32

1994 _____ 52.5 ________ 55.6 _____________ t-10

1922 _____ 52.4 ________ 51.5 _____________ 73

1949 _____ 52.4 ________ 53.8 _____________ t-32

2015 _____ 52.3 ________ 54.3 _____________ t-27

1871 _____ 52.2 ________ 52.0 _____________ t-65

1998 _____ 52.1 ________ 54.0 _____________ 31

1963 _____ 52.0 ________ 53.7 _____________ t-36

____________________________________

The list includes all 1-16 values higher than 52.0, end of April ranks not included were cooler than 52.5 at this stage. Rounding out the top 20 Aprils not in the list, t-12 1985 (55.5) was 50.0, 14th 1974 (55.1) was 50.8, t-17 1952 (55.0) was 50.6, t-17 1976 (55.0) was 49.5, and 20th 2008 (54.9) was 51.5.

1977 (53.5) finished t-36 and was 50.7 after 16 days despite the record highs. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Another rain strike out. I had to turn the Irriagtion system on on campus and begin watering non irrigated planters. Hopefully not a sign of things to come. 

[Gravity Wave]

We dry.

[Rmine1]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Another rain strike out. I had to turn the Irriagtion system on on campus and begin watering non irrigated planters. Hopefully not a sign of things to come. 

We never got up to bat. On a completely different note, unusually high number of midges so far. Hopefully not a sign of skeeter season. 

[bkviking]

Port Jefferson - with an awesome unique sunset 

[donsutherland1]

A brief shot of much cooler air will move through the region tomorrow and Wednesday. Tomorrow will likely see the temperature stay in the 50s in New York City and struggle to reach the lower 60s in Philadelphia. Noticeably warmer air will then return after midweek. The temperature could reach the upper 70s and perhaps lower 80s on Friday. A more sustained cool period could develop during or just after the next weekend and continue into the opening days of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around April 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -7.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.955 today.

On April 15 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.750 (RMM). The April 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.661 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8° (4.1° above normal). That would rank as the second warmest April on record.

 

[LoboLeader1]

43F here in the Berkshires this AM. Currently 48F back home.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging   59degs.(51/67) or +2.

Month to date is     59.9[+8.7].      Should be     59.6[+6.5] by the 26th.

Reached 70 here yesterday at 6pm.

Today:   54-59, wind w.-breezy, variable clouds improving, 45 tomorrow AM.

51*(52%RH) here at 7am{ was 50 at 6am, 57 at midnight).      54* at 9am.        Reached 59* at 5pm.        49* at 9pm.     47* at 10am.

[SACRUS]

 

down to 47 and now ba breezy 53.  Cooler today before warming Wed (4/19) towards normal (64/45).  Thu (4/20) through Sat (4/22) much warmer mid 70s to low perhaps mid 80s in the warmer spots Fri. Sat comes down to arrival of clouds.  Sun (4/23) looks very wet as system rides the front. Could be wettest day since Feb 27.    Beyond that cooler Mon 4/24 through much of next week.  Next rain chances the middle of next week perhaps more meaningful rain to wash the pollen accumulation away.

[nycwinter]

brrr chilly out there.

[MJO812]

51 here

 

 

 

Finally cool weather

[bluewave]

On 4/14/2023 at 8:24 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Very impressive, Don. I noticed Bradford, PA reached 86F / 30C at over 2100 feet of elevation, setting a new monthly record (after tying the record of 85 yesterday which was set last year and twice in 1990).

They are actually running a few degrees above 2010 for the warmest April so far.

Time Series Summary for BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 17	Missing Count
1	2023-04-17	52.2	0
2	2010-04-17	50.3	0
3	2017-04-17	47.8	0
4	1967-04-17	47.2	0
5	2021-04-17	46.9	0
6	1991-04-17	46.0	0
7	1988-04-17	45.3	0
-	1969-04-17	45.3	0
8	2002-04-17	44.9	0
-	1999-04-17	44.9	0
9	1968-04-17	44.8	0
10	2015-04-17	44.7	0

[Volcanic Winter]

Wow, BlueWave. Don’t think I would’ve expected that at all. 

The temp profile right now is more what I consider enjoyable for April. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 93 (2002)
NYC: 96 (1976)
NYC: 91 (1976)

 

Lows:

EWR: 32 ()
NYC: 25 (1875)
LGA; 35 (2014)

 

Historical:

 

1880 - More than two dozen tornadoes were reported from Kansas and Arkansas to Wisconsin and Michigan. More than 100 persons were killed, including 65 persons at Marshfield MO. (David Ludlum)

1906 - A severe earthquake shook San Francisco, and unusual easterly winds spread fires destroying the city. (David Ludlum) At 5:12 AM, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake hits San Francisco. A devastating fire soon broke out in the city and lasted for several days. About 3,000 people died, and over 80 percent of San Francisco was destroyed.

1944 - California experienced its worst hailstorm of record. Damage mounted to two million dollars as two consecutive storms devastated the Sacramento Valley destroying the fruit crop. (The Weather Channel)

1957 - A dust devil near Dracut MA lifted a small child three feet into the air, and rolled two other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three were hurt. The dust devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it moved westward. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - Rapid City, SD, received a record 22 inches of snow in 24 hours. (17th-18th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thirty-one cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including International Falls MN with a reading of 88 degrees, and Bismarck ND with a high of 92 degrees. A sharp cold front produced high winds in the western U.S. Winds in Utah gusted to 99 mph at the Park City Angle Station, and capsized a boat on Utah Lake drowning four persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the southeastern U.S. A strong (F-2) tornado severely damaged seventeen mobile homes near Bainbridge GA injuring three persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. A thunderstorm in Pecos County of southwest Texas produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Imperial. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Heavy snow blanketed the west central valleys and southwest mountains of Colorado with up to 18 inches of snow. Nine cities from the Mid Mississippi Valley to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date, including Fort Wayne IND with a reading of 23 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[lee59]

58 the high here, a rare cooler than normal day.

[Rtd208]

It looks like we have the potential to see some heavy rain/storms late Saturday into Sunday. Extent of severe weather if any TBD

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It looks like we have the potential to see some heavy rain/storms late Saturday into Sunday. Extent of severe weather if any TBD

Very strong blocking and closed low will slow down frontal passage. Need some training to get heaviest rains here. Slightly stronger block and heaviest rains would favor northern and western areas of the forum.
 

[Rtd208]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very strong blocking and closed low will slow down frontal passage. Need some training to get heaviest rains here. Slightly stronger block and heaviest rains would favor northern and western areas of the forum.
 

Upton:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With one warm front off to the north and another to slowly
approach, things will start off warm, with temps Thu night
bottoming out mostly from the mid 40s to mid 50s, then with
onshore SE flow rising to the lower 80s inland well away from
the ocean, into the 70s most elsewhere, and only into the 60s
near south facing showers out east. A milder night Fri night
expected, with lows near 60 in midtown NYC and in the 50s
elsewhere as the onshore flow continues and even backs east for
a time.

The front should get a push north first thing Sat morning, but
with more in the way of clouds ahead of an approaching frontal
system as well as continued onshore flow temps likely to end up
cooler than those of Friday, with more widespread 60s for highs
across SE CT and eastern Long Island, and failing to reach 80
from NYC north/west.

A rainy/windy and cooler period likely from Sat night into
Sunday as a closed low to the west becomes negatively tilted and
potent leading shortwave energy approaches. A long SE-S fetch
and lack of a strong sfc-based inversion likely to result in
winds approaching or exceeding advisory criteria late Sat night
into Sunday, especially along the coast. A narrow corridor of
strong Atlantic moisture transport ahead of the front via a
strong LLJ, as well as enhanced lift ahead of a wave of low
pressure along the approaching front, also likely to result in
pds of moderate to heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder from
late Sat night into Sunday night.

The aforementioned closed low to the west will become the
westernleg of a large omega block over eastern North American
and the western Atlantic, so expectations are that the forecast
trends going into early next week will slow down. So PoP
forecast remains somewhat higher than NBM during this time, with
chance PoP for ern CT/Long Island into Monday and at least
slight chance PoP otherwise going into Tuesday.

&&

[MJO812]

53 here

[donsutherland1]

After a cool night, it will begin to turn milder tomorrow. Noticeably warmer air will then return starting Thursday. The temperature could reach the upper 70s and perhaps lower 80s on Friday. A more sustained cool period could develop during or just after the next weekend and continue into the opening days of May.

April 2023 remains on a trajectory that will likely rank it among the 10 warmest Aprils on record in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The potential exists for some locations to challenge their warmest April on record. A cool end to the month won't be sufficient to avoid top 10 warmth.

The most recent April case to rank among the 10 warmest was:

Boston: 51.7°, 2019 (5th warmest)
Bridgeport: 54.0°, 2017 (1st warmest)
Islip: 51.9°, 2019 (6th warmest)
New Haven: 50.8°, 2022 (6th warmest)
New York City-Central Park: 57.2°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 55.1°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57.6°, 2017 (2nd warmest)
Newark: 57.2°, 2017 (4th warmest)
Philadelphia: 59.0°, 2019 (3rd warmest)
Poughkeepsie: 53.0°, 2017 (3rd warmest)
White Plains: 53.9°, 2017 (2nd warmest)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around April 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least mid-spring. El Niño conditions will likely develop during the summer.

The SOI was -1.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.478 today.

On April 16 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.519 (RMM). The April 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.722 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.0° (4.3° above normal). That would rank April 2023 as the warmest April on record.

 

[psv88]

Like clockwork, a shitty month of crap about to arrive. 

[TriPol]

Red Flag Warning until Weds at 8 pm

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Like clockwork, a shitty month of crap about to arrive. 

We're having the warmest April ever so it's fine. I also don't think it'll be that bad, we'll probably still have an above normal May. 

[Rtd208]

[ForestHillWx]

41 currently. 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Blocking pattern about to set up