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April 2023


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Could be dare I say some inland 80 plus highs late next week if ensembles are right and it’s not showery or overcast.  That second part is a big if now 

Absolutely. If the ensembles are correct, that’s easily 80+ in April with downsloping westerly flow, as long as we get sunshine
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2 hours ago, MANDA said:

Anyone taking bets on when we next get a below normal month temperature wise around here?

We're 3 for 3 above normal for the year so far.  Below normal months are getting so rare.  Even if they are below normal it is barely below.

as long as we get rid of the gloomy rainy days I'm utterly fine with it.

 

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5 hours ago, MANDA said:

Anyone taking bets on when we next get a below normal month temperature wise around here?

We're 3 for 3 above normal for the year so far.  Below normal months are getting so rare.  Even if they are below normal it is barely below.

And that’s even with the newer 1991-2020 averages, we still can rarely manage a below normal month

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5 hours ago, MANDA said:

Anyone taking bets on when we next get a below normal month temperature wise around here?

We're 3 for 3 above normal for the year so far.  Below normal months are getting so rare.  Even if they are below normal it is barely below.

If we get a decent El Niño it’s highly likely October will average below normal but even summers can be below normal during El Niño here so don’t be shocked if one of June July august is 

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No changes to the weekly Drought Monitor for this sub forum but expansion over the Northeast sector as a whole.  Even moderate drought showing up over parts of Southeast Maryland.  Pattern has remained very consistent since Fall.  Additional parts of this sub forum (parts of L.I. have been there for months)  could easily pop into the abnormally dry category if we don't see some meaningful rainfall over the next 1-3 weeks.

LAST WEEK.jpg

 

CURRENT WEEK.jpg

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On 3/27/2023 at 9:15 AM, SnowGoose69 said:

Could be dare I say some inland 80 plus highs late next week if ensembles are right and it’s not showery or overcast.  That second part is a big if now 

Next week continues to look very warm. High temps well into the 70s tuesday through thursday, and wouldn't be surprised to see 80 degrees as you said. 

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2 hours ago, MANDA said:

No changes to the weekly Drought Monitor for this sub forum but expansion over the Northeast sector as a whole.  Even moderate drought showing up over parts of Southeast Maryland.  Pattern has remained very consistent since Fall.  Additional parts of this sub forum (parts of L.I. have been there for months)  could easily pop into the abnormally dry category if we don't see some meaningful rainfall over the next 1-3 weeks.

LAST WEEK.jpg

 

CURRENT WEEK.jpg

If we have another quiet summer with little tropical activity and it’s hot (quite possible if we’re going into a Nino) that will expand. The typical south shore drought season puts that area in moderate drought. 

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Severe storms can overperform on Saturday even to the coast with steep mid-level lapse rates, strong shear, an helicity. Morning warm front with possible multiple rounds convection in afternoon into evening. The key may be getting enough spacing between all the storms. But there can be squall segments and supercells. The models are all over the place on convection timing and placement. The Euro has morning, midday and evening convection.


493CA323-D851-42A5-8B50-796FF026ABD4.thumb.jpeg.b09a93a2f658e0e33af6fa815e30cd38.jpeg

D544FACE-5D9E-4D07-90B6-175AD298DDDF.thumb.png.471c7336ef5c0995ae47141e609ca9b3.png

51AB3628-149F-4ABA-BDDB-D35718343311.thumb.png.3238ff337e94671fa0c8f2a5a8b2d709.png

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Severe storms can overperform on Saturday even to the coast with steep mid-level lapse rates, strong shear, an helicity. Morning warm front with possible multiple rounds convection in afternoon into evening. The key may be getting enough spacing between all the storms. But there can be squall segments and supercells. The models are all over the place on convection timing and placement. The Euro has morning, midday and evening convection.


493CA323-D851-42A5-8B50-796FF026ABD4.thumb.jpeg.b09a93a2f658e0e33af6fa815e30cd38.jpeg

D544FACE-5D9E-4D07-90B6-175AD298DDDF.thumb.png.471c7336ef5c0995ae47141e609ca9b3.png

51AB3628-149F-4ABA-BDDB-D35718343311.thumb.png.3238ff337e94671fa0c8f2a5a8b2d709.png

 

wow they have severe weather right over this area, which rarely ever happens.  I think it was November a couple of years ago we had a tornado here.  My power was out for 4 hours and it felt really cold lol.  I can't remember the exact number but Long Island had around 8 tornadoes that day, the most for one day, and in November lol.

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49 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

wow euro with a snowstorm next weekend and now the GFS shows something interesting!!! i am in!


.

:lol: 

OOOOOOK then! Godspeed! Thankfully odds are totally in our favor given how awesome those models have been at day 8-9 with snowstorms they’ve shown this winter. 

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2 hours ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

wow euro with a snowstorm next weekend and now the GFS shows something interesting!!! i am in!


.

 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

:lol: 

OOOOOOK then! Godspeed! Thankfully odds are totally in our favor given how awesome those models have been at day 8-9 with snowstorms they’ve shown this winter. 

Can I see a storm happening, Yes. Snow? No

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