Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

With the primary that strong plowing over CLE, there is no way we keep this all snow. We’ll have to stack it on the front end and hope ip/zr tops it. 

Still drove a secondary under us in the end....it was close and wouldn't take much to keep us all frozen down here. Assuming the Euro has close to the right idea.

[weathafella]

I’ll take that front ender!  Retention in March is a fool’s errand but right now I have the longest stretch of snow otg all winter it seems-but then again it’s still February….

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might be a good burst of snow initially.

I'd sign on dotted line for that solution even though I flip to pellets. Really solid thump. Hopefully we start wobbling on the track now....don't want it to go further north.

[George001]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

With the primary that strong plowing over CLE, there is no way we keep this all snow. We’ll have to stack it on the front end and hope ip/zr tops it. 
 

Still looks like warning snows before the flip so not too bad verbatim. 

That is if it holds, there is no signs of the north trend stopping. Encouraging 12z runs today for us rain enthusiasts. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I'd sign on dotted line for that solution even though I flip to pellets. Really solid thump. Hopefully we start wobbling on the track now....don't want it to go further north.

I'd sign up too, but as we surmised, suppression is not the issue with this.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I’ll take that front ender!  Retention in March is a fool’s errand but right now I have the longest stretch of snow otg all winter it seems-but then again it’s still February….

I’m not looking for retention really, just don’t want rain. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Each model run is trending more and more amped and big jumps were made by the southernmost models. 

MJO phase 7 supports an enhanced WAR which supports a phased, powerful system that confluence can't stop. 

Yes to the WAR, but not necessarily a phased powerful system....given the right medium, an NAO block and WAR can create compression/confluence.....which lo and behold, many of these runs do.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd sign up too, but as we surmised, suppression is not the issue with this.

Scooter knows 

Let’s just stop the trend and get some sort of help 

Love to have something to watch , don't enjoy continual ticks north , but just keep me frozen 

[Spanks45]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m not looking for retention really, just don’t want rain. 

4-8 followed by sleet, then some light rain...should help solidify a bit at least...something that doesn't all get washed away would be alright

[ORH_wxman]

Moved the psycho-analysis of George's rooting interests in this storm to the banter thread. Let's try and not get derailed.

[Snowcrazed71]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Moved the psycho-analysis of George's rooting interests in this storm to the banter thread. Let's try and not get derailed.

Even better I deleted it. Wasn't thinking I just was responding. Back to the tracking this beast.

[WinterWolf]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

That is if it holds, there is no signs of the north trend stopping. Encouraging 12z runs today for us rain enthusiasts. 

Silly post.  Confluence can trend stronger on next run, and boom the trend stops and/or can reverse.  That’s if the euro even has the right idea? Big If there. 

[George001]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Silly post.  Confluence can trend stronger on next run, and boom the trend stops and reverses.  That’s if the euro even has the right idea? Big If there. 

The shortwave is trending slower and more amplified, so even if the confluence does trend stronger there isn’t much holding it there. The blocking isn’t all that strong and like the Pope said, it’s east based. Strong storms gain latitude, they don’t just move west to east. To get snow for SNE we need the shortwave to not gain latitude from its position in the Midwest which doesn’t seem likely at all. Sure anything can happen, but at this point all signs point towards the north trend continuing.

[jbenedet]

Seeing a stronger primary on the EPS, and increasing phasing with the PV over Manitoba. 

The primary was stubborn for tomorrow's event but we had antecedent cold to overcome that. That's the big problem, for many, this time imo.

[WinterWolf]

It’s still real early in this evolution…

[mahk_webstah]

I like using wunderground to see trends and today I notice a small increase for tomorrow's storm, less liquid for Thursday, and now about 10" for Saturday.  Everything trending a little better.

[weathafella]

18z GFS emphatically says enough with the north trend.

[WeatherX]

18z GFS with a big front ender

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weathafella said:

18z GFS emphatically says enough with the north trend.

Man…my flight back from ATL arriving at BDL at 10pm is in deep trouble. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS has a heck of a front ender. Better confluence up north.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS has a heck of a front ender. Better confluence up north.

You use to do aviation weather IIRC…what’s your take with landing during snow/IP? Takeoff should be fine in ATL but arrival into BDL…Delayed or cancellation?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You use to do aviation weather IIRC…what’s your take with landing during snow/IP? Takeoff should be fine in ATL but arrival into BDL…Delayed or cancellation?

Snow can be dealt with, but you get issues with moderate or greater intensity. IP..if it's moderate or greater, nothing really moves. IP is a killer.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

18z GFS emphatically says enough with the north trend.

I didn’t expect that much of a shift. Getting inside 100 hours too now.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Snow can be dealt with, but you get issues with moderate or greater intensity. IP..if it's moderate or greater, nothing really moves. IP is a killer.

Ugh…

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I didn’t expect that much of a shift. Getting inside 100 hours too now.

Hopefully shifts way south 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yikes!   between rt 2 and the Pike...that band in there looks like 2.2" of IP with .33" accretion ... 

...after 3-5" of snow

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yikes!   between rt 2 and the Pike...that band in there looks like 2.2" of IP with .33" accretion ... 

...after 3-5" of snow

Glad I'm north of that. 

[mahk_webstah]

36 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Man…my flight back from ATL arriving at BDL at 10pm is in deep trouble. 

Fly somewhere else and then drive or train home. Do not miss the storm! Flying to New York or Philly hop on the train, it’s not that long of a train ride. Do not miss a big storm. I repeat, do not miss a big storm.

[UnitedWx]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yikes!   between rt 2 and the Pike...that band in there looks like 2.2" of IP with .33" accretion ... 

...after 3-5" of snow

Great, the 'ol Ariens snowblower will love that! But hey, bring it on... except the .33. No DIT damage fetish here

[Chris12WX]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yikes!   between rt 2 and the Pike...that band in there looks like 2.2" of IP with .33" accretion ... 

...after 3-5" of snow

Based on storm track and evolution, have to imagine someone gets something akin to this.