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Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx
CoastalWx
ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Really nice outline John…thanks for the start on this thread.    Im going to ask people to keep this thread cleaner than the last one. Keep the discussion on topic. There’s going to be highs an

Damage In Tolland
Damage In Tolland

Looks like another sleet/ icestorm is coming south of 90?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Personally unsure re the Euro ... It's inside of D4 when over the Arklatex position with the deep tropospheric wave space, which is pretty good performance window for that particular guidance - yet the GFS and GGEM are, albeit minuscule, perhaps crucially weaker during, and more importantly... after leaving that region.

Weaker at the trough's best amplitude point, means less coherency when it's headlong trajectory ultimately meets Mike Tyson's -NAO fist.  

Thus ... I also lean toward applying at least some measure of conserved approach to all guidance.

Take whatever the "super blend" is right now, and assume we get some destructive interference, just in deference to the fact that we are in a leitmotif pattern of sending these kinematics headlong into the same manifold of delimiters that caused the present system headaches. 

So there's two uncertainties to iron out: 

- how much needs to be conserved post this trough nadir near the Arklatex; 

- how much exertion also after that time, from outside.

All the overnight ens means and their deterministic flagships demoed more west limb -NAO burst emerging ... .  You can see backing elements in the synoptic cinema NE of Maine, prior to that onset of the high latitude ridging. It's always interesting when that happens. It's because the exertion in the field already starts; systems will begin to respond prior the ridge manifesting. It's complex ..

Anyway, the short version is that this next one in line may advance toward more in the way of inhibition when nearing the 90W/40N ~ area, if the -NAO idiosyncrasy verifies. Ugh...

 

 

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radiator

radiator

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This one is a good read, I think. Prefer a tamer version of the GEM.

First Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/first-call-for-friday-winter-storm.html

FRI FIRS CALL.png

I'm thinking that you intended to write "Friday evening" instead of "Saturday evening" here:

Quote

Favored Storm Evolution:

Snowfall break out across southwestern New England early Saturday evening.
 

 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The detailing of the 06z GFS from what I'm seeing has more switch back to moderate snow after IP, just prior to ending... N of the Pike in the interior.  It's a nuance observation at this range, but I also notice a subtle E reposition over prior runs wrt the primary over NE Ohio.  The secondary in the Bite region off the N Jersey coast is also slightly more identifiable by 96 hours (comparing...). 

It's tedious differences ... but shows there's some spacing sensitivity there. Should the wave mechanics adjust a total trajectory just a little S, that secondary may take off and that would change the map a little as far how far that IP/ZR mess intrudes into the region...

Or, the entire run suite's full of shit.  

Also should not forget what may be the most important leitmotif of 2022-2023 winter, either:  soring of the butts

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jbenedet

jbenedet

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Have to watch this closely - a big drop in the AO, to strongly negative.

This isn't a positive for a more snowy outcome, ironically - it will promote the primary phasing with the northern stream, as the PV sags south out of central Canada, and troughing is heavily displaced to the west. More phasing of the primary means more trouble at the mid levels to the north, and less frozen solutions to the south.

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Have to watch this closely - a big drop in the AO, to strongly negative.

This isn't a positive for a more snowy outcome, ironically - it will promote the primary phasing with the northern stream, as the PV sags south out of central Canada, and troughing is heavily displaced to the west. More phasing of the primary means more trouble at the mid levels to the north, and less frozen solutions to the south.

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

Doesn't this also correlate with a stronger block though, and therefore more confluence? Check out the last three cycles of the EPS..strengthening block pushing the transfer slightly southward each time. 

be62a64f-4423-4f90-8570-9c0f20866e98.thumb.gif.d0e0d9d10fb79f37865f750981425046.gif

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Have to watch this closely - a big drop in the AO, to strongly negative.

This isn't a positive for a more snowy outcome, ironically - it will promote the primary phasing with the northern stream, as the PV sags south out of central Canada, and troughing is heavily displaced to the west. More phasing of the primary means more trouble at the mid levels to the north, and less frozen solutions to the south.

ao.gefs.sprd2.png

I get this this thinking ...but for me, it's like one color off the pallet of ways the AO could effect the circulation mode at mid latitudes. 

The issue I have is that the AO is an annular domain space. Which means that it's in situ modes may or may not force amid any given region around the hemisphere. Case in point, the big +AO --> -AO flip in Jan 2007.  For the first two weeks of that avalanche phase change ( like +5 to -3 SD in a week!), all the cold offloaded into Eurasia and east across that continent.  

It's just a word of caution for all as we move into an "iffy" causal relationship with the "SSW" ( which upon reviewing that more closely, I'm not sure we really saw downward propagation phenomenon... but whatever -).  -AOs don't always homogeneously distribute their payloads/forcing on jets follow.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM has really strong confluence, but the main shortwave is so far west we wouldn't get the nice WCB thump....that would be out in the Great Lakes.

It's got a really strong core, too.  It's feeding back - I suspect - because that aspect sends out a strong short wave ridge signal immediately leading, and that's really the other side of what your talking about.  It may be causing the confluence to be very impressive.   But, ...the question becomes two fold,

one ... where then does this thing go after that?   I mean it can't go N. It has to go E.  It almost doesn't matter that it's where it is, at 84 hrs ... it may only delay the same result... once it is inevitably forced E. 

two ... who the the f*k cares about this model at that range?  just sayn'

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JoeSnowBOS

JoeSnowBOS

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The trend so far on 12z for the JV models (NAM/RGEM/ICON) is to wrap the main shortwave up so far west, that it doesn't really help that the confluence is coming in stronger.....we don't get the good WCB precip burst.

This one is OVA - stick a fork in it.  Maybe quick inch before deluge of rain.   Spring is here - done chasing these storms 5 days out that look good only to completely fail

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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One thing those who are hiding their panic over the NAM ... ( ICON for that matter...)  haha

Seriously, they may be right, but it would be dumb luck.

Those guidance' domain spaces do not include a large aspect of the NAO. As it is in retrograde across the N/Atl Basin leading this, during and afterward... it's influence may not be entirely detectable.

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One thing those who are hiding their panic over the NAM ... ( ICON for that matter...)  haha

Seriously, they may be right, but it would be dumb luck.

Those guidance' domain spaces do not include a large aspect of the NAO. As it is in retrograde across the N/Atl Basin leading this, during and afterward... it's influence may not be entirely detectable.

 

Yeah I'm waiting until the later guidance comes out to start thinking this one is cooked as a major event here....but we definitely don't want that shortwave ripping up that far west....even though it will move east eventually with the block, our margin at this latitude is pretty narrow as it is so even a slight latitude gain on it's eastward shunt is no good here. Prob totally fine for NNE.

But we'll see what he globals say....they are certainly going to be more skillful at this range than the nested mesos.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm waiting until the later guidance comes out to start thinking this one is cooked as a major event here....but we definitely don't want that shortwave ripping up that far west....even though it will move east eventually with the block, our margin at this latitude is pretty narrow as it is so even a slight latitude gain on it's eastward shunt is no good here. Prob totally fine for NNE.

But we'll see what he globals say....they are certainly going to be more skillful at this range than the nested mesos.

Honestly ... I would keep it to "...cooked as a moderate event here..." but I'm with you.  semantics perhaps.

I think this has a delimiting upside as time has gone by, because it's getting more coherent that it will be running up into a negative interference environment. This flavor of the NAO seems hostile. a- it's ..pretty much gotta attenuate some. 

My contention is really about the positioning in space and time out there by the 'nested' guidance types - whether that is even right. I lean no.  Because the -NAO that's in retro behavior is directly counter to the the position the NAM is attempting to take this thing (ICON too - I've read about its weird 'hexagonal' framing grid ...no idea why-for or wtf, but it doesn't inspire trust when it's running performance, as far as I can tell, is about as structured as a dung beetles ball of Cape Buffalo shit, and perhaps only useful in that space). 

SO... my thoughts then run to why, and the best I surmise is the domain coverage - but we'll see.

agreed with needing globals.

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