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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

If this goes on to 3 inches only ( and that may be too much <_< ...) you're sooo lucky. 

At least you had a few days.  

Try growing up in the 1980s.   There were a lot of multi feet to multi cirrus streaks in 6 hours that decade

Some of us still have PTSD from a few of those...Feb 1987 and Feb 1989 were just heartbreakers. At least the winter of 86-87 wasn't bad overall but loosing that blizzard that destroyed the Cape was horrific.

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1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

Some of us still have PTSD from a few of those...Feb 1987 and Feb 1989 were just heartbreakers. At least the winter of 86-87 wasn't bad overall but loosing that blizzard that destroyed the Cape was horrific.

There were a couple that destroyed the cape. I remember growing up winters were defined as “Cape winters” or “495” winters. There was a reason why lol.

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Welp, it was fun tracking with you guys. Unfortunately, it looks like I will end up busting one too many times. The low is barely even there on the Euro, went from 12-18 a couple days ago to the low just…. vanishing. Poof, the low is gone. Before my ban, i just wanted to say I really enjoyed my time here tracking. Our run is coming, but not this Tuesday and Wednesday. Back to the weenie cave for me.

The season (this season) is (was) over before it began! Persistent 580 HGTS with the SE Ridge, mean storm track in the W. Never did shift E and now it's to late for anything meaningful. Any tracking will commence starting in Dec., 
I'm a firm believer in freedom of speech, press. Banning should be banned there is no requisite for posting in this public forum.  

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

Welp, it was fun tracking with you guys. Unfortunately, it looks like I will end up busting one too many times. The low is barely even there on the Euro, went from 12-18 a couple days ago to the low just…. vanishing. Poof, the low is gone. Before my ban, i just wanted to say I really enjoyed my time here tracking. Our run is coming, but not this Tuesday and Wednesday. Back to the weenie cave for me.

You're not getting banned dude ( if you're not kidding..)

But the 36 buns you earned on the thread opener ... beyond being a "10 top historic" achievement ... can you finally once and for all learn from that and the journey since? 

There is nothing wrong with having started  thread for this concern.  I did too - it was far more conservative, however.  Even so...it was a bad call on my part - most likely... I went for a moderate event, with a possibility for more.  Most likely, wrong.  Anyway, threads should be started for anything that is interesting - the decision to pin this was not yours.  That's on moderation...  I think others are conflating pinned threads with access/success in storm entertainment - and that then puts them in a situation where they need to blame others... etc.  

But this isn't about the thread being composed.  It's about the exotic hyperbole as though it really happening...   I've tried to constructively encourage you with objective reasoning. But then when you reply to it, "...thanks, good advice, but I'll stick to my guns," in the face of the incontrovertible, that sounds like you're ... well, if you got an issue, we'll support you.  We're compassionate. 

But if you don't and this your stubborn election to be cartoon fantasy monger in here - I think collectively most that enjoy this pass-time would rather not 

It might be time to reign things in a bit.

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17 minutes ago, George001 said:

Welp, it was fun tracking with you guys. Unfortunately, it looks like I will end up busting one too many times. The low is barely even there on the Euro, went from 12-18 a couple days ago to the low just…. vanishing. Poof, the low is gone. Before my ban, i just wanted to say I really enjoyed my time here tracking. Our run is coming, but not this Tuesday and Wednesday. Back to the weenie cave for me.

I hope we keep you. 

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One thing worth keeping in mind here, this event has a very unusual origin from low pressure dropping south along the west coast. Moderate rain and 49F at San Diego currently. That low has just begun to make an eastward turn now. Details could change and the models could get a better handle on what is going to happen with its relatively fast motion towards the lower Great Lakes over next 48h. Current model solutions may have significant errors. This could go either way from the current disappointing outcome. A better outcome could appear at the last minute. Any trends towards stronger blocking, earlier transfer are potentially good as the warm Atlantic gets involved. I am watching with interest to see what actually happens. Step back from the ledge, George. 

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7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

George saying goodbyes and bracing for the end like the captain of the Titanic. This thread is killing me lol

Honestly nothing would make me happier than an epic comeback that shocks us all. 

You’re in a pretty good spot for this one. I’d feel good in CT right now. I may have to resign myself to limping to 3 inches…assuming it doesn’t trend worse. 
 

But I am an empirical man and statistical man…I don’t just assume this will keep trending worse because of previous failures. There’s always a point where it stops and starts wobbling…just like the 2/23 event did and actually gave us pike-dwellers a real semblance of a snow pack. 

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11 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

The season (this season) is (was) over before it began! Persistent 580 HGTS with the SE Ridge, mean storm track in the W. Never did shift E and now it's to late for anything meaningful. Any tracking will commence starting in Dec., 
I'm a firm believer in freedom of speech, press. Banning should be banned there is no requisite for posting in this public forum.  

It’s all good, it’s all fun. Beside a select few we are all learning, having some laughs along the way and sharing in our love of weather.

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16 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

The season (this season) is (was) over before it began! Persistent 580 HGTS with the SE Ridge, mean storm track in the W. Never did shift E and now it's to late for anything meaningful. Any tracking will commence starting in Dec., 
I'm a firm believer in freedom of speech, press. Banning should be banned there is no requisite for posting in this public forum.  

Great post!!

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24 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Insane post coming from you, like mind blowing

I have said nothing even close to resembling that. not even close to the same thing

there's a difference between comparing a potential pattern to one that has produced KUs in the past with like 10 different caveats applied and whatever that post was to start the thread. they aren't comparable

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’re in a pretty good spot for this one. I’d feel good in CT right now. I may have to resign myself to limping to 3 inches…assuming it doesn’t trend worse. 
 

But I am an empirical man and statistical man…I don’t just assume this will keep trending worse because of previous failures. There’s always a point where it stops and starts wobbling…just like the 2/23 event did and actually gave us pike-dwellers a real semblance of a snow pack. 

I do feel pretty good here. Coastal CT is still my concern. Not exactly what I’d do down there yet but I’d probably go 4-8 for interior CT. That hasn’t really changed in my mind.

Maybe 1-3 along immediate shoreline but if the euro is on the right track it’s probably 2-4 east and 4-8 for the rest for a first call. 

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59 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Some of us still have PTSD from a few of those...Feb 1987 and Feb 1989 were just heartbreakers. At least the winter of 86-87 wasn't bad overall but loosing that blizzard that destroyed the Cape was horrific.

Oh my god... don't get me started.  There was one... I wanna say 1987, late January.  There was a 4th period ( 4th period!! ) blizzard watch issued. 

'beep beep b'beep beep - beep beep b'beep beep,' "...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUES A..." started running along the bottom of the television main networks and TWC, every couple of hours, upgrading to a warning for some kind of dystopian cryo apocalypse.  Turns of phrase like, "...RIVALING ANYTHING EXPERIENCED SINCE 1978..."  I photo-fuckin'-graphically remember that, man!  They had snow approaching 2 feet ... damaging winds ... power outages ... coastal flood where that was applicable... for what would amount to two straight days before hand.

The storm was supposed to begin overnight and pretty much render society halted by the next morning ...all over central and eastern Mass/CT/RI... 

So I was at the gym playing in pick up games, basketball, on the eve of the all-mighty.  I kept going out in between games to check the lamp light in the parking lot to see if it was starting.  These random flakes began along side these big IP pellets.   The sky was glowing that kind of butterscotch hue that you see at night when it's snowing hard, and I even thought at the time, '...better get finished and head home...'   

Another hour later it's like 9:15 pm and the gym's ( highs school) was emptying.. I left the energy of the gym to walk home, but entered a still eerily calm realm. And not like the 'calm before the storm' vibe, either  ...More like 'something's not right,'  kind of bad feeling.  The glowing hue in they sky became dark around the horizons. I remember that when I was really little in western Michigan...when lake effect was ending ...or perhaps the band just shifted away... that city glow in the sky would remain over overhead, but turn black toward the horizons.  I hated that... The snow never started back up once I saw that affect.  But...thereupon that faithful walk home I opted to put it out of my mind ... similar ( actually) to how we tend to ignore the writing on the wall to this very day in this pass-time LOL...  

So I'm home and waiting patiently for Harvey Leonard's 11 pm. I knew he'd be leading the news cast as by then... the storm awareness and coverage was at an all-time fever pitch. Mind you, ... civility was only 9 years out of the Cleveland Super-Bomb, and the infamous Feb 5-7th Blizzard here in New England... It was sensy.   As the credit were rolling ... Harvey pops in for the teaser, "Big big changes regarding our storm. I think you'll need to hear this"   - I think a shot of raw battery acid must've flooded my tummy upon hearing those words... for I knew.  Oh, I knew.  Still, I tried to think, 'how can this be an even bigger storm if the horizons turned dark....?'   haha

So he comes on and the other shoe falls.  "Looks to me, after studying the very latest guidance, like the worst of this will be down near the Cape and Islands, with far less impact as you go north west"  ...  

' I bet that wrong. It can't be '  There was at the time I crawled into bed 10 minutes later, still what amounted to epicosity warnings.

Dawn breaks, partly sunny with stiff wind, 9F ...zero snow having fallen.   Thank you for playing the 1980s state of the art weather modeling game!  yee haw.   Went from no school for a week, to get your ass dressed and walk in a gelid 9F face flogging wind, NOW! 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh my god... don't get me started.  There was one... I wanna say 1987, late January.  There was a 4th period ( 4th period!! ) blizzard watch issued. 

'beep beep b'beep beep - beep beep b'beep beep,' "...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUES A..." started running along the bottom of the television main networks and TWC, every couple of hours, upgrading to a warning for some kind of dystopian cryo apocalypse.  Turns of phrase like, "...RIVALING ANYTHING EXPERIENCED SINCE 1978..."  I photo-fuckin'-graphically remember that, man!  They had snow approaching 2 feet ... damaging winds ... power outages ... coastal flood where that was applicable... for what would amount to two straight days before hand.

The storm was supposed to begin overnight and be pretty much render society halted by the next morning ...all over central and eastern Mass/CT/RI...  So I was at the gym playing in pick up games, basketball.  I kept going out in between games to check the lamp light in the parking lot to see if it was starting.  These random flakes began along side these big IP pellets.   The sky was glowing that kind of butterscotch hue that you see at night when it's snowing hard, and I even thought at the time, '...better get finished and head home...'   

Another hour later it's like 9:15 pm and the gym's ( highs school) left to gym to walk home, and the it was eerily calm.  Not in the like the 'calm before the storm vibe,'  ...more like something seemed off kind of bad feeling.  The glowing hue in they sky became dark around the horizons. I remember that when I was really little in western Michigan...when lake effect was ending ...of after the band shifted away... that city glow in the sky would remain over overhead, but turn black toward the horizons.  I hated that... The snow never started back up once I saw that affect.  But...thereupon that faithful walk home I opted to put it out of my mind ... similar ( actually) to how we tend to ignore the writing on the wall to this very day in this pass-time LOL...  

So I'm home and waiting patiently for Harvey Leonard's 11 pm. I knew he'd be leading the new cast as by then... the storm awareness and coverage was at an all-time fever pitch. Mind you, ... civility was only 9 years out of the Cleveland Super-Bomb, and the infamous Feb 5-7th Blizzard here in New England... It was sensy.   As the credit were rolling ... Harvey pops in for the teaser, "Big big changes regarding our storm. I think you'll need to hear this"   - I think a shot of raw battery acid flood my tummy in upon hearing those words.  I thought, 'how can this be an even bigger storm if the horizons turned dark....?'  

So he comes on and the other shoe falls.  "Looks to me, after studying the very latest guidance, like the worst of this will be down near the Cape and Islands, with far less impact as you go north west"  ...  

' I bet that wrong. It can't be '  There was at the time I crawled into bed 10 minutes later, still what amounted to epicosity warnings.

Dawn breaks, partly sunny with stiff wind, 9F ...zero snow having fallen.   Thank you for playing the 1980s state of the art weather modeling game!  yee haw.   Went from no school for a week, to get your ass dress and walk in 9F wind in the face gelid flogging, NOW! 

LOL. Brings back Feb ‘89 PTSD for me. At least we still got 4 inches of sand in that one. But oh man, same exact vibe. Snow started way late in that one and it ended up being a cape crusher. 

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38 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I thought places that haven’t seen in inch all season would be thrilled at the prospect of 5. 
 

The euro is not pretty but it will spell a positive surprise somewhere in CT, with like 8”, a la 12/12/22. 
 

Take it and run with it.

I don’t think anyone in southern CT has a problem with the EURO solution verbatim. 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

LOL. Brings back Feb ‘89 PTSD for me. At least we still got 4 inches of sand in that one. But oh man, same exact vibe. Snow started way late in that one and it ended up being a cape crusher. 

aH...that one... I remember that one.   24" forecast at bed time was 4" of grits

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