Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is definitely not going to get it done for us easterners. Good run for CT though. 

Looks like the rgem. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The real pressing question that is becoming evident with this threat: 

 

how will George clear his half inch of snow?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

12z UKMET. There has been a very consistent signal for a snowfall max in western CT. 

Puke 

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

12z UKMET. There has been a very consistent signal for a snowfall max in western CT. 

The tree it is again. From wne thru cnh over into Maine 

[TalcottWx]

I weigh very little outside of the euro and gfs and their end, can't wait to see euro at 12z. If it came in snowy, brains will explode. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, TalcottWx said:

I weigh very little outside of the euro and gfs and their end, can't wait to see euro at 12z. If it came in snowy, brains will explode. 

I'm leaning towards not very snowy.  Hoping for exploding brains though

[TalcottWx]

NWS BOX TWITTER:

[Plowable Snow] A plowable snowfall is likely for much of the region Mon night-Tue. The bulk of the snow should arrive after the Mon evening rush hour,  but impact the Tue morning commute with some improvement by the afternoon. Anticipate a snowfall graphic later this afternoon. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The tree it is again. From wne thru cnh over into Maine 

A stronger secondary on the trajectory its on would not bode very well up here unless it was further north, As it stands right now, This is probably our best scenario with the primary moving over us.

[jbenedet]

20 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

12z UKMET. There has been a very consistent signal for a snowfall max in western CT. 

Again. Similarities to 12/12/22

[Johnno]

22 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

12z UKMET. There has been a very consistent signal for a snowfall max in western CT. 

Maybe you brought us some Juju from Emass

[jbenedet]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A stronger secondary on the trajectory its on would not bode very well up here unless it was further north, As it stands right now, This is probably our best scenario with the primary moving over us.

Yea that’s what’s getting it twisted—an us vs them scenario. 

NNE wants a SWFE (primary holds on indefinitely) whereas SNE and north Mid Atlantic want a legit Miller B. The snowfall outcome is very much capped (everywhere) at moderate scale outside of an outcome that results in a weak primary that quickly transfers to Del Marva and then phases with the Northern Stream Shortwave, somewhere south of the Cape. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea that’s what’s getting it twisted—an us vs them scenario. 

NNE wants a SWFE (primary holds on indefinitely) whereas SNE and north Mid Atlantic want a legit Miller B. The snowfall outcome is very much capped (everywhere) at moderate scale outside of an outcome that results in a weak primary that quickly transfers to Del Marva and then phases with the Northern Stream Shortwave, somewhere south of the Cape.

Exactly, There lies the two camps, Outside of that one weenie run, Its morphed into more of a SWFE at the moment, Still time for some more changes though, But i think for up here, We've hit the ceiling.

[CoastalWx]

I’ll take a SWFE. But you still need a decent s/w.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll take a SWFE. But you still need a decent s/w.

Its pretty strung out but you have a couple limiting forces working against it with pluses and minuses.

[jaf]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie is definitely not going to get it done for us easterners. Good run for CT though. 

 Toss GFS?

[jbenedet]

When the NAO is this negative, and flow is slow, I say let cyclogenesis work its magic off the east coast strong vort be damned. You’re more likely to get positive surprises than negative, so long as temps are supportive.

 

[TalcottWx]

10 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Maybe you brought us some Juju from Emass

We can only pray my friend. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

When the NAO is this negative, and flow is slow, I say let cyclogenesis work its magic off the east coast strong vort be damned. You’re more likely to get positive surprises than negative, so long as temps are supportive.

But that all ties into the s/w too. You aren’t getting a good low with a POS s/w.

[jbenedet]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Exactly, There lies the two camps, Outside of that one weenie run, Its morphed into more of a SWFE at the moment, Still time for some more changes though, But i think for up here, We've hit the ceiling.

I see a hybrid (late bloomer) in EPS and UK. GFS mostly SWFE.

ukie most miller B like, GFS least, EPS in between 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

We can only pray my friend. 

Probably lots of .5 to .75” reports today. Maybe SW CT gets an inch? Nice wintry day there.

[8611Blizz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Probably lots of .5 to .75” reports today. Maybe SW CT gets an inch? Nice wintry day there.

Scott what do you think the east gets out of this?

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

But that all ties into the s/w too. You aren’t getting a good low with a POS s/w.

I mean, I get that. You’re talking 988 type low at the high end. It’s capped but at a slightly higher level imo, than the alternative.

I just think more can go right, with a legit miller B, and much more can go wrong with a SWFE given the players.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Scott what do you think the east gets out of this?

Today? Nothing really. Maybe a dusting in spots.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

I mean, I get that. You’re talking 988 type low at the high end. It’s capped but at a slightly higher level imo, than the alternative.

I just think more can go right, with a legit miller B, and much more can go wrong with a SWFE given the players.

I think the Miller B stuff is off the table for the most part. Just hope as that system moves in, we get a decent thump. A strung out Or suppressed s/w won’t help. 

[TalcottWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably lots of .5 to .75” reports today. Maybe SW CT gets an inch? Nice wintry day there.

I've got a half inch already right now. 

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, TalcottWx said:

I've got a half inch already right now. 

[Chris12WX]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

All guidance minus the gfs has looked really bad at 12z

So the GFS blows. (Did I do that right?)

[wxsniss]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...

The first was... the S-SE warm wall is a semi-permanent artifact of the La Nina/-PNA.  We've been in a very well coupled hemisphere since the 3 weeks around Xmas when it broke down and yielded that hybrid Nino look.   Point is, it was not modeled to really go away prior to this thing getting injected through as it was back whence.    My blunder is not supplying enough obvious recognition to the fact that moving a S/W up and over the top of a ridge arc supplies a -NVA term across all DPVA deltas along the way.  We see this as "damping" effect in the cinema of the runs..  

Yep. Euro last night was a pipeline for potent shortwaves ejecting out of the southwest that subsequently deamplify riding up and over the southeast ridge. Counters cyclogenesis with that trajectory, so we're left more dependent on potency of the incoming shortwave. Same issue for 3/4 system as currently depicted. Infusion of northern stream had been compensating.

[tavwtby]

10 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

I've got a half inch already right now. 

I have almost an inch from the pixie dust today, plows actually out

[40/70 Benchmark]

This one blows.