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February 2023 Obs/Discussion

Baroclinic Zone

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, to be fair....if I get 2', then I don't complaint about someone getting 3'. I was perfectly fine with Jan 2015 and the JP was just west of me. It's the ones that give me like 12-16" with widespread 2'+ around me that make me lose my shit.

There has to be a gummy that helps with this.  

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ugh…that better not verify unless we get some snow before it. Bare ground and -10 temps for many. 

And we all know it is going to, love the -34° windchill here at 12z Saturday....If this were snow, it would have enough time to become a rainy cutter by then. Really done with chasing unicorns and end up catching skunks.

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54 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Going to let us out 



It's - admittedly for me ... - partial in why I wonder how well winter enthusiasm will fair post the elephant ass mooshing down the trampoline, next 10 days here.  I've intimated as much in the past.    

Not sure about Eric Webb's history and credentials, or 'internet cred' ... et al, but regarding that one statement? -the constructive interference of a Phase 3-4 ( possibly 5) over La Nina, without considering any other factors, he's completely salient that we're apt to having to deal with a hot wall across the south. 

Op ed:   By extension to that ...

I have mentioned how over the past 7 yeas, we have observed a week in February host a day near or at 80, amid several back to back days in the same week whence temperatures exceeded 70 F ... three different times.   These occurred regardless of (-) or (+) ENSO...    I'm pretty sure - don't quote me, but it might be worth it to find out - those three different events were in aggregate, never experienced either empirically extreme over climate nor sensibly...   It's like 4 or 5 days were  66, 72, 79, 76, 54 ...   with lows some +20 over climate.   We have spent far too little time gawking over those ... which were in fact probably the greatest SD events we have actually witnessed at a regional geographic scope and scale ... spanning many decades.  We just don't care enough ( perhaps).  I mean, obviously it's just not in the interest wagon...etc.  No attempt at gaslight .. it is what it is etc.

I'm just not convinced there isn't something more to those three warm bursts ... more systemic than chance, lurking in the background as a low -amplitude influencer.   Along comes some well timed constructive interference factors and ...well, does that recur.

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ugh…that better not verify unless we get some snow before it. Bare ground and -10 temps for many. 

Not bare at PIT2.  Just got up for the first time since Christmas week.  Deep winter despite the 41* temp.  Looks like about 10-12 still on the ground in spite of the rain earlier in the week.

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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro with Monday rain showers after near all-time record cold 2 days prior.

Yeah ...rain showers or not, that rapid cessation of the cold idea has been recurring across most guidance.  They and the blend are trying to roll out the hemisphere with haste.  

Sometimes we claim 'too fast to break down the pattern'  but ... hm, almost feels like this time we can't - or shouldn't.

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