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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t even know anymore lol but I think we set ourselves up by planting our avg flag in the ground each year. each season we think we need to reach it or it’s a failure of a season. But winter in general is a small sample size, we have basically 100 days of it in SNE (give or take) and that’s not a lot in the grand scheme of things. If you take your seasonal snowfall for the last 10 years (1,000 days) and average it out, I bet you’re probably close enough to your 30yr average. I guess my point is asking to hit climo each year is not as an easy ask as we think it is. 

It is definitely frustrating to go like 4-5 seasons in a row below climo. But yeah, we had it coming. Between 2012-2013 and 2017-2018 (6 seasons), 5 of them were above climo for BDL. Only 2015-16 was below. 
 

 

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GFS made an attempt at bringing the 2nd back … it became forgotten once the 1st showed up and stole eyes. But the 1st then disappeared and the one 24 hrs later’s trying to reappear. Needs work tho.  

Fast volatile flow of low deterministic value.  It’s possible we succeed in passing thru a buck shot minor event pattern but you’d think with the 31st, 1st, 2nd, 23/24, 25/26 all at one time or the other cycle showing up … one would be real enough. 

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It is definitely frustrating to go like 4-5 seasons in a row below climo. But yeah, we had it coming. Between 2012-2013 and 2017-2018 (6 seasons), 5 of them were above climo for BDL. Only 2015-16 was below. 
 

 

Oh yea, no doubt. Some of you said back then we would pay with regression. 

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5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah, was in Worcester/Holden/Shrewsbury a few days ago, there was a pretty drastic difference then too.  Was in the winter hill area as well

Yeah winter hill is basically in Holden. About 200 yards past the top of the hill is the Worcester/Holden line. There’s often a big gradient across the city from the northern/northwestern part and the rest of the city. 
 

But sometimes it’s more drastic and this is one of those times where it looks like two different climates

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah winter hill is basically in Holden. About 200 yards past the top of the hill is the Worcester/Holden line. There’s often a big gradient across the city from the northern/northwestern part and the rest of the city. 
 

But sometimes it’s more drastic and this is one of those times where it looks like two different climates

Yeah and it looked like parts of the area are still neutered from the Dec. '08 ice storm. Like no one re-planted-rebuilt :D

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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah winter hill is basically in Holden. About 200 yards past the top of the hill is the Worcester/Holden line. There’s often a big gradient across the city from the northern/northwestern part and the rest of the city. 
 

But sometimes it’s more drastic and this is one of those times where it looks like two different climates

Holden/Paxton is a great weenie area. Learned this years ago when dating someone from Paxton. Used to try and plan date night when a storm was moving in 

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