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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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I mean, next week is looking more flat and progressive than suppressed due to confluence. If the shortwave in the southwest stays south it’s more because the southern stream is unlikely to hook up with the northern stream; and gain little latitude. This disturbance cuts off at H5 over California by the way. Not exactly a good start to pumping heights. 
 

The H5 look is messy; disjointed. Unsynchronized. 

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Just now, jbenedet said:

I mean, next week is looking more flat and progressive than suppressed due to confluence. If the shortwave in the southwest stays south it’s more because the southern stream is unlikely to hook up with the northern stream; and gain little latitude. This disturbance cuts off at H5 over California by the way. Not exactly a good start to pumping heights. 
 

The H5 look is messy; disjointed. Unsynchronized. 

All winter the southeast ridge was hurting us and now it can't help us ?

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39 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I mean, next week is looking more flat and progressive than suppressed due to confluence. If the shortwave in the southwest stays south it’s more because the southern stream is unlikely to hook up with the northern stream; and gain little latitude. This disturbance cuts off at H5 over California by the way. Not exactly a good start to pumping heights. 
 

The H5 look is messy; disjointed. Unsynchronized. 

It may be adding big word choice to say, but I just prefer to call it a destructive interference regime.

Also, progressive, suppressive ... passive aggressive ...whatever we wanna call it, the flow is vastly too compressed with high velocities. 

The former aspect would need to be overcome to get much to evolve over the next 10 days of this. The latter aspect would then (likely) limit further, because system profiles would favor faster narrower/shearing type structures.  

Converged delimiters ( negatives ).  The operational GGEM and Euro manage 10 days with .01 base line atmosphere ( it'll frost that much!), with one 24 hour period of -20 to -30C 850 mb Montreal Express.   10 days with nary nada - it's really rather remarkable.  

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Looks like clipper potential. Doesn’t look exciting to me at all.

I don’t think you’re too far north; you’re actually in a good spot to add a little to the pack looking out over next 7 days.
 

 

That is my hope and then I’m on board for an early warm-up. But you know the cold April is in evitable this year.

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It may be adding big word choice to say, but I just prefer to call it a destructive interference regime.

Also, progressive, suppressive ... passive aggressive ...whatever we wanna call it, the flow is vastly too compressed with high velocities. 

The former aspect would need to be overcome to get much to evolve over the next 10 days of this. The latter aspect would then (likely) limit further, because system profiles would favor faster narrower/shearing type structures.  

Converged delimiters ( negatives ).  The operational GGEM and Euro manage 10 days with .01 base line atmosphere ( it'll frost that much!), with one 24 hour period of -20 to -30C 850 mb Montreal Express.   10 days with nary nada - it's really rather remarkable.  

And this is the good period , correct ?

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48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All winter the southeast ridge was hurting us and now it can't help us ?

You’re in NYC. 
 

I think you misunderstood the takeaway. If things trend flatter in the eastern CONUS, the SE ridge would be helping you with the day 6 threat in terms of snow chances. But cap expectations under SECS. It’s not a suppressed look, more flat and progressive. 
 

My early take is this looks like a ribbon of snow broad, 4-8” 6-10” narrow; Indiana-Ohio to Northern Mid Atlantic. Open wave, traversing a North/south oriented frontal boundary 

 

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You’re in NYC. 
 

I think you misunderstood the takeaway. If things trend flatter in the eastern CONUS, the SE ridge would be helping you with the day 6 threat in terms of snow chances. But cap expectations under SECS. It’s not a suppressed look, more flat and progressive. 
 

My early take is this looks like a ribbon of snow broad, 4-8” 6-10” narrow; Indiana-Ohio to Northern Mid Atlantic. Open wave, traversing a North/south oriented frontal boundary 

 

:)

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You’re in NYC. 
 

I think you misunderstood the takeaway. If things trend flatter in the eastern CONUS, the SE ridge would be helping you with the day 6 threat in terms of snow chances. But cap expectations under SECS. It’s not a suppressed look, more flat and progressive. 
 

My early take is this looks like a ribbon of snow broad, 4-8” 6-10” narrow; Indiana-Ohio to Northern Mid Atlantic. Open wave, traversing a North/south oriented frontal boundary 

 

Now you’ve gone and done it. You’ve made Anthony happy. Just setting him up…and costing him another month of stormvista 

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27 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And this is the good period , correct ?

Well ..heh.  I guess it's a subjective vs empirical evidence question.  

Going back to circa November 29 and telescoping the month of December, given the synoptic and super-synoptic vision of the day.. that woulda been a helluva "good period"  

But it turned out to be patently, vastly under performed ...relative to that - although enters the subjectivity somewhat there, because the historic Lake cutter bomb toward Xmas in a purist's Meteorological perspective, makes that all worth it.  For consensus in here?  - such virtuosity is fleeting at best.  As it were ...that period did not do much at all ( for three weeks of 'good period'!) to appease the New England forum consensus.  

We then marched through a mid winter hiatus between so-called good periods, ...finally sniffing this one out 2 or so weeks ago.  Impatience ran amok but here we are, and the pattern change arrives(d)... and it's just unfortunate that what is modeled in the dailies, and observable in these super-synoptic circumstances ...both appear indelibly destined to another period that will set up good wrt to conventionality, but deliver less that what that convention would argue it should. 

Which ...it's fair enough to ask if maybe these guidance' are just going to far and that something is in there.  One could certainly advance the notion, the models tend to over-amp the late mid/ext ranges... If the models are too plump with the elephant ass N/stream, that may offer a shorter duration lead correction to something.  It's right in the climate hot seat for activity/winter storms over these next 10 days, precisely when the models are trying to sell almost 0 QPF during ...  But we've done this/that before... 2012 passed through this period with highs around 45 and partly sunny every day, too.  At least this time, we'll be cold... Cold is a good foundation... etc.  There's hidden arguments despite the convincing aspect of a season's worth of conditionalized sore butting ( lol), not exactly setting us up with the right frame of mind to uncover. 

...egh. 'nough of that.

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20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You’re in NYC. 
 

I think you misunderstood the takeaway. If things trend flatter in the eastern CONUS, the SE ridge would be helping you with the day 6 threat in terms of snow chances. But cap expectations under SECS. It’s not a suppressed look, more flat and progressive. 
 

My early take is this looks like a ribbon of snow broad, 4-8” 6-10” narrow; Indiana-Ohio to Northern Mid Atlantic. Open wave, traversing a North/south oriented frontal boundary 

 

Unlikely, no cold air

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ..heh.  I guess it's a subjective vs empirical evidence question.  

Going back to circa November 29 and telescoping the month of December, given the synoptic and super-synoptic vision of the day.. that woulda been a helluva "good period"  

But it turned out to be patently, vastly under performed ...relative to that - although enters the subjectivity somewhat there, because the historic Lake cutter bomb toward Xmas in a purist's Meteorological perspective, makes that all worth it.  For consensus in here?  - such virtuosity is fleeting at best.  As it were ...that period did not do much at all ( for three weeks of 'good period'!) to appease the New England forum consensus.  

We then marched through a mid winter hiatus between so-called good periods, ...finally sniffing this one out 2 or so weeks ago.  Impatience ran amok but here we are, and the pattern change arrives(d)... and it's just unfortunate that what is modeled in the dailies, and observable in these super-synoptic circumstances ...both appear indelibly destined to another period that will set up good wrt to conventionality, but deliver less that what that convention would argue it should. 

Which ...it's fair enough to ask if maybe these guidance' are just going to far and that something is in there.  One could certainly advance the notion, the models tend to over-amp the late mid/ext ranges... If the models are too plump with the elephant ass N/stream, that may offer a shorter duration lead correction to something.  It's right in the climate hot seat for activity/winter storms over these next 10 days, precisely when the models are trying to sell almost 0 QPF during ...  But we've done this/that before... 2012 passed through this period with highs around 45 and partly sunny every day, too.  At least this time, we'll be cold... Cold is a good foundation... etc.  There's hidden arguments despite the convincing aspect of a season's worth of conditionalized sore butting ( lol), not exactly setting us up with the right frame of mind to uncover. 

...egh. 'nough of that.

So we wait and see if something small to medium can pop during this time frame.. 

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