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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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43 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Nice rain bomb on Feb 6 on GFS. 

We take that ...  It's marginal and at this range, it is even money. 

After having passed through a dreadfully awful circumstance by then, where very little (is likely) happened ( although the 2nd refuses to completely disappear and keeps sort of trying - ) at all, uncertainty is a better companion then no love.  

That event is happening more from the polar branch of the westerlies as a Pac delivered impulse, ...perhaps crucially, after the compression of that TPV has rolled out and left.  Once that happens, that opens the door to better logistical chances.

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30 minutes ago, tamarack said:

We had short intrusions last January, giving our frost pocket lows of -29 and -30, only the 6th morning in 25 years here to hit -30 or lower.  The last extended (at least a week) cold snap came in Dec 17 into Jan 18.  The week 12/27-1/2 averaged 2.4/-22.1 with a max of 7 and min of -31, running 29° BN.  Extending that to 15 days, 12/25-1/8, the temps were 8.7/-14.1, only 21° BN but including a pair of storms totaling 21" and a max for the span of 22 during the 13" dump on 1/4.  Fort Kent wx

Yeah we had -10s twice here and another shot with a high of +5 and -8 min. 
 

Amazingly I’m going to finish this Jan with no min below +10. 

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33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It does appear though (AT LEAST THROUGH 2/8-2/10 ANYWAY) that my warnings to the warm February boys club about going torchy in Feb in a Nina after Jan was torchy is dangerous because history has shown that usually Feb is colder or at least near normal in La Ninas where that has happened.  88-89 was a good example of it.  Lets hope we don't see Norfolk do as well as they did in February 89 though

Huh?  February looks warm, maybe not +10 like January but easily +4

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40 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah we had -10s twice here and another shot with a high of +5 and -8 min. 
 

Amazingly I’m going to finish this Jan with no min below +10. 

That is amazing.  Maybe you had clouds on the 11th and 22nd, when I had -3 and -8, respectively.  Those are my only subzero mornings so far; January averages 13 and the previous low was 4 in 2002.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Maybe that’s why he keeps getting porked? Putting out bad vibes, wishing for everyone else to get screwed? Mother Nature karma 

I’m not saying this is ray , bc he was outside with the fam at 2am just last week enjoying a pasting . In any given snow storm ..I think it’s more like your destined to have someone score twice as much snow as you in any New England snow storm , wether your fringed, it’s elevation dependent, it’s a gradient pattern favoring just north or it’s hit SE mass harder or the Deform misses NW Or even a SWFE w confluence that eats up the NE part of the band . There are so many ways in which any given storm will pork you relative to wherever is favored more . I think it’s a bit harder to take if areas who average significantly less than you double your total in a storm compared to areas up and in but that’s New England snow climo for us in Sne .

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m not saying this is ray , bc he was outside with the fam at 2am just last week enjoying a pasting . In any given snow storm ..I think it’s more like your destined to have someone score twice as much snow as you in any New England snow storm , wether your fringed, it’s elevation dependent, it’s a gradient pattern favoring just north or it’s hit SE mass harder or the Deform misses NW Or even a SWFE w confluence that eats up the NE part of the band . There are so many ways in which any given storm will pork you relative to wherever is favored more . I think it’s a bit harder to take if areas who average significantly less than you double your total in a storm compared to areas up and in but that’s New England snow climo for us in Sne .

The pattern has been for me to get bent over in the respectable seasons, but do relatively "well" in the rats....a la 2019-2020 and this year. 

Good recipe for going several years without sniffing average snows.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The fact that you drive to every jackpot implies that you feel the same way.

I want to experience a lot of snow , I have been lucky this year in hitting decent jacks . But I never anticipate it bc well they are so hard imo and when I go to hunter mountain and they get 24” and someone nw in a band gets 36” I am fine with it . It’s like I wish I was in the deform but it is more of a fleeting thought and I am feelin just lucky to have 2 feet while back home it’s raining . I just particularly hate winter rain . I will usually get the heck outta town if it’s a significant storm and I’m gonna rain , that’s really my biggest issue to chase . If Nashua was getting 6” and changing to ice and dentrite got 20” I would be content as long as I don’t flip to fukkin winter rain 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I want to experience a lot of snow , I have been lucky this year in hitting decent jacks . But I never anticipate it bc well they are so hard imo and when I go to hunter mountain and they get 24” and someone nw in a band gets 36” I am fine with it . It’s like I wish I was in the deform but it is more of a fleeting thought and I am feelin just lucky to have 2 feet while back home it’s raining . I just particularly hate winter rain . I will usually get the heck outta town if it’s a significant storm and I’m gonna rain , that’s really my biggest issue to chase . If Nashua was getting 6” and changing to ice and dentrite got 20” I would be content as long as I don’t flip to fukkin winter rain 

Well, to be fair....if I get 2', then I don't complaint about someone getting 3'. I was perfectly fine with Jan 2015 and the JP was just west of me. It's the ones that give me like 12-16" with widespread 2'+ around me that make me lose my shit.

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