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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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6 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

That system will cut, nothing there to stop it. Best you can hope for is to cut even further west and avoid the big precip but even that is looking unlikely. Cold modeled behind it, that weekend could be one of the worst ski weekends of the year. Don't want to burst your bubble, but that's what I'm seeing.  

Thanks for the reply and not bursting my bubble at all, I expected it to an extent just hoping the horrible modeling this year meant we had a chance. Cutters all seem to verify and everything else just seems to evaporate or end up cutting themselves. Worst winter in memory and that's saying a lot after last year. Here's hoping for a historic March. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I still think most of you are ending things way too early but understand how you guys get there.  It’s like saying there won’t be another 4 inches in SNE in early Feb.  Could be right but it’s hard to wager that unless in full despair.  

The mountain can get like 100” in April.  I’ve seen enough big late spikes to know calling it at 42” at beginning of Feb seems ill advised.  But purely from statistics.

Depth dropped 2” in the 40s and rain last night.  Even the mild valley days it can be 50F in town and 35F with little snowpack change on the mountain.  Hard to go steadily downhill from this point without ever rebounding.

We’ll see… forecast is for 3-7” tonight.

Tonight
Snow showers. Low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -5. Windy, with a northwest wind 26 to 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 
 

 

I don’t see you going steady down . I just don’t see much after a few tonite. I wouldn’t make a bet that the stake peaked , its 3k plus elevation but I’m really saying it wouldn’t shock me to see it not get above 50” (wouldn’t not bet) but it wouldn’t shock me  

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ORH is over a 50mi drive for me....I think that is plenty far enough.

How far is it for most CT and RI attendees? And then how far is Boston for those folks? And lastly .. other than the tour of NBC tour night.. when have they ever held one outside of ORH or BOS to make it more accessible for others ? Even once 

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How far is it for most CT and RI attendees? And then how far is Boston for those folks? And lastly .. other than the tour of NBC tour night.. when have they ever held one outside of ORH or BOS to make it more accessible for others ? Even once 

It’s a bit over an hour from Nashua 

and 45-50 from Bedford 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t see you going steady down . I just don’t see much after a few tonite. I wouldn’t make a bet that the stake peaked , its 3k plus elevation but I’m really saying it wouldn’t shock me to see it not get above 50” (wouldn’t not bet) but it wouldn’t shock me  

Yeah it could be quite a while before any real gains again. I probably read too much into the post based on the tenor of the forum today, ha.

Its just March and April are still 8 weeks of possible healthy snows and gains at that elevation.

The mean max temperature at the Stake is 33.8F on April 10th… so two months from now the average high is barely above freezing.  It looks like, say, Hartford CT only has one calendar day in the entire year (January 16 at 33.5F)) where the mean max temp is lower than Mansfield on April 10th.

So the hill has until early/mid April before it hits mid-January in CT climate.  Just for perspective on climo timelines.

With that said, this winter has shown that taking the under on winter potential is the way to go… the persistence pattern. Sometimes that’s hard to shake and can stick with a whole season.

Weighing the probabilities continues to offer some optimism but not expecting it… reasonable viewpoint at this time.

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51 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I hope this is a joke and you didn’t get laid off via email 

I didn't but I there have been news stories about this happening, especially in tech companies.

https://www.businessinsider.com/google-layoffs-alphabet-jobs-pichai-email-slap-in-the-face-2023-1

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11655877/Amazon-begins-layoffs-18-000-workers-informing-email.html

 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How far is it for most CT and RI attendees? And then how far is Boston for those folks? And lastly .. other than the tour of NBC tour night.. when have they ever held one outside of ORH or BOS to make it more accessible for others ? Even once 

Put one together in CT, how about Black Dog in Putnam? Great assortment of beers, great pizza and right off the highway. Plenty of smaller rooms we could occupy.

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53 minutes ago, mreaves said:

So bad.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How far is it for most CT and RI attendees? And then how far is Boston for those folks? And lastly .. other than the tour of NBC tour night.. when have they ever held one outside of ORH or BOS to make it more accessible for others ? Even once 

The whole point is that ORH is in the center of SNE.

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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How far is it for most CT and RI attendees? And then how far is Boston for those folks? And lastly .. other than the tour of NBC tour night.. when have they ever held one outside of ORH or BOS to make it more accessible for others ? Even once 

You haven’t been to a Boston gtg for 14 years.

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