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January 23rd Storm Threat: keeping positive vibes, ending chances of futility


TalcottWx
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4 minutes ago, wkd said:

People should post 'positive snow depth change' maps instead of total snowfall.

Those can be way too low though at times if the snow is coming down at anything heavier than light snow...usually it ends up in the middle somewhere. If it stays mostly light snow, then the depth maps are prob pretty decent in a marginal airmass.

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think folks are gonna want elevations in SNE today to accumulate more than 1-2” , unless eastern areas can wait till after 3pm and still see .3 +qpf

Yea timing was poor in both directions. Precip moved in after sunset last night but 850-925 was the main problem. Now 850-925 cool enough for snow, but best snows move in with crap airmass in early afternoon. A lot of 32.5 - 34.0 snow to fall which doesn't stack well without rates; and a 990 mb low doesn't get me excited about the rate potential. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Those can be way too low though at times if the snow is coming down at anything heavier than light snow...usually it ends up in the middle somewhere. If it stays mostly light snow, then the depth maps are prob pretty decent in a marginal airmass.

The best way is to just know and understand the snow maps aren't to be taken literally, but to show the area where the model thinks that amount of water might fall as snow.  Use your own ratios to figure out up or down from there.

The other way would be to just use the p-type accumulation maps... ie model thinks 0.50-0.75" will be snow.  

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Hoping for another 2-4 here later, but no complaints. The temperature has been hanging at 32 for about 15 hours. Light accretion of ice on trees but with the heavy sow on them from Friday, we've had a few branches down, mostly on pine trees. Still looks like a winter wonderland out there. Considering what we've had for a "winter", I'm not complaining.

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Just now, alex said:

What are the colors? Wondering what that red dot next to me is

NH-CS-19: Carroll 4.6 NE
  Obs DateJan 23, 2023
 Obs Time07:00 AM
  Gauge Catch0.59 in
  Snowfall
  Depth 8.0 in
  SWE 0.60 in
  Snowpack
  Depth 16.0 in
  SWE NA
Notes
Snow started 7pm, 0700 OBS:moderate snow,temp 24.1
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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Those can be way too low though at times if the snow is coming down at anything heavier than light snow...usually it ends up in the middle somewhere. If it stays mostly light snow, then the depth maps are prob pretty decent in a marginal airmass.

I think those are better in marginal setups....like the NARCAN maps.

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5 minutes ago, alex said:

What are the colors? Wondering what that red dot next to me is

Last evening there was a meso-band on radar arcing right through C.VT... Killington area and just north of there.  Heading up towards your area.

Can see it on the reports pretty well with 8-12" overnight in that zone.

CoCoRAHS2.thumb.jpg.56a00f75625129ee0f1725bdf082464c.jpg

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