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Midwest/Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Snow January 24-26


Baum
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36 minutes ago, King James said:

I was up at 245 with the dogs and already was coming down pretty good and the grass was covered. We did it!

2.4" with my 6:00 AM CoCoRaHS observation. 

Snowing nicely right now. Radar still looks good. Maybe a shot at 4", which would be quite a win for us. :) 

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40 minutes ago, Baum said:

LOT on it per usual:

BEEN CRANKING OUT SOME PRETTY DECENT SNOWFALL STRADDLING THE   
I-80/88 CORRIDORS. WE'RE SITTING JUST UNDER 2 INCHES SINCE   
MIDNIGHT AT OUR OFFICE IN ROMEOVILLE, WITH SNOWFLAKE QUALITY   
IMPROVING A GOOD DEAL OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO (THEY WERE FAIRLY   
TINY UP UNTIL THAT, LIKELY OWING TO PRIMARY ASCENT/GENERATION   
REGION ABOVE THE DGZ).

 

 

you can tell the talent pool over there is ready for some real wx to track

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9 hours ago, OHweather said:

The hi-res models are really barking that the deformation band that cranks from parts of central and eastern Indiana into northwest Ohio, southeast Ohio, and southern Ontario during the day Wednesday will pack 1-2" per hour rates, with forecast soundings that support heavy snow with large flakes:

snowfall_001h_prob01_ne.f01700.thumb.png.2cf4713c7a531c4dedec6b586faa8837.png

530617256_snowfall_001h_prob02_ne.f01700(1).thumb.png.e11c062808f3b1698b03193a1877799b.png

snowfall_024h_prob_series_ne.f02400.thumb.png.58d5ed66bdc31d1f81b74bda99c7d30b.png

1782802386_download(35).thumb.png.393768f0f485f4a8999f258eb4d10e16.png

The hi-res model consistency (and slight ramp up this run) of the deformation band placement and potential for over 6" with it has been relatively impressive, so we'll see if they're sniffing something out.

It's worth noting that the synoptics behind this are nuts:

hrrr_f16.thumb.png.627e223f80bf64a85ce9f1b0f10bde11.png

Strong divergence in the left-exit quadrant of a jet streak ahead of a sharp negatively tilted shortwave, with a zone of strong warm air advection and low to mid-level frontogenesis beneath this to help squeeze out precipitation:

1550347554_hrrr_f16(1).thumb.png.8bdbb688eeb4386c2879358dccde5007.png

725459052_HRRRcross.thumb.png.2bd3c3206a790912aa4b42eb9f0bdbdc.png

 

Temperatures will be at or perhaps slightly above freezing for most of this snow so ratios won't be great, but heavy snow rates with large flakes are likely to occur in any mesoscale banding that develops within the broader deformation zone on Wednesday. 

It would not shock me at all to see one or two bolts in that band as well wherever it sets up

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9 hours ago, OHweather said:

The hi-res models are really barking that the deformation band that cranks from parts of central and eastern Indiana into northwest Ohio, southeast Ohio, and southern Ontario during the day Wednesday will pack 1-2" per hour rates, with forecast soundings that support heavy snow with large flakes:

snowfall_001h_prob01_ne.f01700.thumb.png.2cf4713c7a531c4dedec6b586faa8837.png

530617256_snowfall_001h_prob02_ne.f01700(1).thumb.png.e11c062808f3b1698b03193a1877799b.png

snowfall_024h_prob_series_ne.f02400.thumb.png.58d5ed66bdc31d1f81b74bda99c7d30b.png

1782802386_download(35).thumb.png.393768f0f485f4a8999f258eb4d10e16.png

The hi-res model consistency (and slight ramp up this run) of the deformation band placement and potential for over 6" with it has been relatively impressive, so we'll see if they're sniffing something out.

It's worth noting that the synoptics behind this are nuts:

hrrr_f16.thumb.png.627e223f80bf64a85ce9f1b0f10bde11.png

Strong divergence in the left-exit quadrant of a jet streak ahead of a sharp negatively tilted shortwave, with a zone of strong warm air advection and low to mid-level frontogenesis beneath this to help squeeze out precipitation:

1550347554_hrrr_f16(1).thumb.png.8bdbb688eeb4386c2879358dccde5007.png

725459052_HRRRcross.thumb.png.2bd3c3206a790912aa4b42eb9f0bdbdc.png

 

Temperatures will be at or perhaps slightly above freezing for most of this snow so ratios won't be great, but heavy snow rates with large flakes are likely to occur in any mesoscale banding that develops within the broader deformation zone on Wednesday. 

 

7 hours ago, Chinook said:

This is my favorite post ever.

Definitely one of the best posts ever!! 

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Looks like the surface LP has crossed the Ohio River into southern IN. A lot of models had it riding south of the river through northern KY, so glad to see the system didn't crap the bed at the 11th hour. About 2" of wet stuff here so far... honestly it's more than I expected. Trees look nice with every branch caked in gloop.

Hoping the upcoming pattern delivers some drier more mid-winter type snows. 

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