DTX (summary = gonna stack some more tenths)
Shortwave tracking through the Dakotas this afternoon and slippinginto central Indiana by 12z Tuesday. Question is will this systemstill be strong enough and far enough north to support precipitationslipping north across the southern Michigan border. Based on thebulk of the hires solutions, and seeing 850-700 MB omega/forcing,the answers appears to be yes for areas along and south of I-94,with less confidence as one heads north. Mean temperature in the 850-700 MB layer looks to be -10 C. 12z NAM still maintains a closedsurface low/low level circulation through 18z Tuesday, which shouldbe good enough with 925 MB temps of -2 to -3 C. Any layer abovefreezing is right at or just above the surface, so snow is expectedto accumulate, especially after we drop into the upper 20s/near 30degrees tonight. Accumulation around half an inch along and south ofI-94 appears likely, and will then taper off pops quickly as oneheads north.