RogueWaves

I drove thru a bit of that storm in WMI. I like those maps in general, but find them to be a bit off in amounts. Kalamazoo had a solid 8" and it brought down a massive amount of tree limbs and a lot of power was out in that region! Such a strange storm for two things. The time of year, and track. CO front range storms don't normally become SMI storms. Seems almost non-existent in my memory.

The IRI certainly likes your area for COLD! That'd be a big change right there. (Pretty sure it's for this winter not 2019)

It's possible it was the pre-Thanksgiving storm in '04, but I clearly remember that the city had not collected all the leafs that were raked curb-side and they ended up being buried by the snow plows which made a real chore when it did melt. Since then, they've maintained an earlier leaf collection schedule. Too early really, if you have late dropping hardy trees like I do

Yep, just noticed that at the bottom of the legend..thx

LOL @ using a 216 hr map to then further leap-frog a call for several weeks later over another region half a world away! There, that should do it..

Yeah, that was another point of that graphic. With that being used in analog lists by some, it remains in the running. Such a bi-polar winter that was. I'm really hoping NOT to get a repeat of that tbh. Remains to be seen tho, if we'll ride a roller-coaster or cold will more or less lock in for the core of winter months with the occasional moderation/thaw. I've been harping on that very point. Don't remember the year exactly ('05?) when that happened around SMI and the mostly green leafs just froze and dropped. I could see some of that going around if we indeed flip hard. Especially along coastal regions where it's stayed extra mild.

Not sure why these would be different, but I like my enhanced versions better, lol. Especially the precip for my region.

Kinda surprised at how slow the color chg has ended up being since the flip to torch temps. You know things are a bit non-traditional when SEMI is ahead of SWMI

SE flow LES off of Erie as a recurring theme, or does that happen to by yby?? do tell

Hoosier's original post: "Just a note... there's a new data set for ONI calculations, and the change makes it so that the anomalies are warmer than the previous data... i.e., the 2015-16 super El Nino now has a "warmer" peak trimonthly of +2.6 (compared to +2.3 before). This means that it's going to be more unlikely to have this upcoming Nina peak at moderate via ONI, and depending on how things develop, it might even struggle to get into weak territory for the required 5 consecutive tri-month overlap period." I didn't start this, but I did add my 2-cent comment(s) that reveal I suppose how I feel about a certain hot-button topic. Feel free to go ahead and pounce on me for that if it makes you feel better. Reading this from your quote still doesn't instill a higher degree of confidence, nor make me feel my comment was blatantly bad. I'm sorry you took it so personal. "..Scientists have further improved ERSSTv5 by using unadjusted First-Guess instead of adjusted First-Guess." I guess I don't even know what that means tbh.

Pretty much spot-on for the Lower Lakes region. Too strong in either direction hurts snowfall. Ofc, there's always a few exceptions to every rule but in general weak or neutral combined with other favorable tele's will give us our best seasons. In 07-08 we rode the fine line with that moderate Nina, any stronger and the snow line would've pushed north. As it was, we suffered a ton of melt-offs between events!

I think the issue was more about the level of intensity shown by the GFS Op runs, and less about a change vs no change. So, a few days of real autumn chill, that's been way past due was bound to happen. It's too early to lock in cold over the east anyhow. We're at least a month away from that benefitting anyone but natural gas suppliers.

Have to agree that Op GFS does over do these cold shots, at least during the times of predominant ridge east, trough west regime. We'll see how it does during the periods when we have a trough east regime?

Went to Kzoo last night and saw a pond at a business and it was 3X it's normal size. Yeah, we got nailed along 94 from here back west. What a week!

Just over 5" of rain since Tuesday morning. Shallow ponds that had dried up should be re-hydrated going forward. Glad to lose the dry pattern and the snooze-fest pattern!