JustMePatrick

That southern storm in your screen cap is showing signs of rotation. And is Tornado Warned as was typing this. Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

I'm south of Findlay, looks like snow began to accumulate around 4:30 AM. Below is a 7AM snap shot of one of my cameras.

The Wind for those of us in Ohio/MI will be insane.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0252.html Mesoscale Discussion 0252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CDT Thu Mar 25 2021 Areas affected...central and northern Mississippi and Alabama...parts of southern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 251512Z - 251745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing storms from Mississippi into Alabama may consolidate into supercells through midday with developing tornado threat. A tornado watch is likely by early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Ongoing activity over eastern MS and into AL has been elevated for much of the morning, but cells now extend southwest of the warm front which is situated from from northern MS into central AL. Radar trends show that cells within these areas have acquired rotation as they attempt to transition from elevated to surface based. This may happen over the next couple hours as temperatures warm into the 70s F with the warm front lifting north, maximizing effective SRH. Therefore, it is possible that these cells develop a tornado threat over the next few hours. 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 along the warm front will favor strong tornadoes as the stronger instability develops into the warm advection zone.

Other parts of Ohio got absolutely hammered with an ICE STORM the 2nd time in less than a week. Over 12K without power: https://www.facebook.com/1415859523/videos/10219355666708492/

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0093.html SPC calling for 2+ inch per hour rates. Mesoscale Discussion 0093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...central/northern Illinois...southern Lower Michigan...northern/central Indiana...northern Ohio Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 152052Z - 160245Z SUMMARY...Moderate to occasionally heavy snow will overspread much of the discussion area from the southwest over the course of the afternoon/evening. Localized areas will received 1-2+ inch per hour snow rates. DISCUSSION...Broad, large-scale lift associated with a mid-level wave across Kansas/Oklahoma continued to maintain a broad precipitation shield across much of the Midwest currently. The precipitation continues to fall as snow (heavy at times) across much of southern Illinois and Indiana. The precip shield is outpacing many models in its northeastward progression and will overspread much of the discussion area from south to north over the next several hours. Within the precipitation shield, it appears that a subtle shortwave over western Tennessee has provided forcing aloft for enhanced snowfall rates across southern Illinois and Indiana. Most of the heavy snow reports have been concentrated in this area, and localized banding may result in 2+ inch/hour rates as this area spreads northeastward into Indiana/northwestern Ohio over the course of the afternoon. Farther west, a few bands have also produced heavier snow from the St. Louis area through central Illinois. This axis of snow should shift northeastward toward the Chicago Metro area and portions of southern Lower Michigan over the next several hours, with 1 inch/hour rates probable beneath heavier bands.

This is the OHGO camera in Lima at the I-75/SR81 Interchange. You can see the flakes!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0088.html Areas affected...southeastern Missouri...northern/western Kentucky...southern Illinois...much of Indiana...southwestern Ohio Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 151644Z - 152245Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow near the Mississippi River will spread northeastward across much of the discussion area over the next 3-6 hours. Accumulations of 1-2 inches per hour are possible in heavier bands. A few areas of sleet may also mix in with the snow across Kentucky. DISCUSSION...Lift associated with an approaching mid-level wave over Oklahoma has resulted in a broad area of moderate to heavy precipitation from eastern Arkansas/western Tennessee southward to the central Gulf Coast. Much of the precipitation has fallen as heavy snow, though sleet has mixed in with the precipitation across western Tennessee at times. Additional bands of precipitation are developing in southern Illinois and southeastern Missouri currently, where recent METARs indicate heavy snow in Carbondale, IL; St. Louis, MO; and Poplar Bluff, MO. This snow has developed roughly 1-2 hours faster than this morning's 12Z model guidance. With broad-scale lift approaching the discussion area, the expectation is that snowfall rates will continue to intensify as the expanding precipitation shield moves northeastward across the discussion area. Areas of 1-2 inch/hour snow rates are expected in heavier bands. Model forecast soundings across Kentucky indicate a warm layer between H7-85 that may allow for sleet to occasionally mix in with snow across Kentucky.

This is the part of the discussion that Jim mentioned earlier from CLE: Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=cle&issuedby=CLE&product=AFD .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The big weather story for the near term period is the significant Winter Storm developing across the south central CONUS and Gulf Coast region. This Winter Storm will bring heavy snowfall and big travel impacts Monday into Tuesday. Quiet weather is expected for this evening. Below-normal low temperatures eventually reach the lower and middle teens overnight. High and mid level clouds and moisture will increase this evening ahead of the initial mid level wave of energy in the broader southwest flow aloft. Forecast confidence is high along with good agreement in model guidance of widespread light snow developing southwest of our region tonight. Isentropic lift will allow snow to gradually overspread our CWA from the south and west after midnight tonight. We are expecting this quick hitter of primarily light snow to impact the Monday morning commute. Bursts of moderate snow should occur as moderately- strong ascent manages to be maximized in a cloudy DGZ at times. Fresh snowfall by midday Monday is expected to reach 1 to 3 inches. That system will be out of the region by midday and will be followed by lingering light snow through the afternoon as weak isentropic lift occurs and some slight lake-enhancement of snow happens generally south and especially southwest of Lake Erie. Additional snow accumulations should be less than one inch Monday afternoon. Daytime highs should range from the upper teens in the far west to the mid 20`s in the far east. There have been some changes and adjustments for the main winter storm system impacting the region Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Guidance has shifted the track northwest along with higher QPF and available moisture. Forecast models have also shown a slightly stronger system and a very favorable track to bring heavy snowfall to our area Monday night. The Monday evening travel commute may be highly impacted and challenging as the snow quickly ramps up. We are highlighting the 5 pm to 5 am time frame as the worse conditions and the heaviest snowfall rates. We may see a decent deformation zone develop tomorrow evening as this system gets fully developed and bands of heavy snow with rates 1 to 2 inches per hour potentially. The other wild card will be the increasing northeasterly low level flow and surface winds tomorrow night coming across the long fetch of Lake Erie. We may see some lake enhancement of heavier snow as well near the lakeshore areas from the Cleveland metro area to the Toledo area. Our overall snowfall forecast totals are widespread 8 to 12 inches with lower amounts closer to east central Ohio and the higher amounts further northwest and lakeshore areas. There is some potential for pockets of higher amounts over 12 inches especially if we have some lake enhancements or true lake effect snow showers as this system pulls away Tuesday morning.

CLE has bumped the rest of their CWA to a warning that was previously in a Watch or an Advisory.

CLE morning discussion: .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A pair of snow events are targeting the area for the short term forecast period, bringing widespread, significant snow accumulations from early Monday morning to Tuesday afternoon. A surface trough will enter the region from the southeast on Sunday night and nudge north into the Ohio Valley by Monday morning. This trough will be supported by the right entrance region of an upper level jet, isentropic lift, and moisture advecting north from the Gulf of Mexico. This feature will bring the first round of snow to the forecast area beginning early Monday morning and extending through early afternoon. Trends with this portion of the snow event are up and have 1 to 3 inches of snow west and 2 to 4 inches of snow east, all of which will have an impact on the Monday morning commute. Now that we are entering the window for some higher resolution data, there are signals that this total could be bumped up a bit higher, especially west over NW Ohio. This will need to be something to watch for in future forecasts. In previous forecast editions, it was advertised that there would be a break in the snow on Monday afternoon and evening before the next round and trend this morning show that the timing of this break is shrinking as the first trough seems to linger. At this point, still expecting light snow during this break period with new accumulations up to an inch. The main show will be on Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave trough over the south central CONUS will support the development of low pressure over the northern Gulf coast. This low will move northeast along the East Coast states through Tuesday. Meanwhile, the forecast area will be on the back side of this system and cold, so all snow is expected. As the low passes by, a TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) will set up across the area, centered at roughly 700 mb, and lower level frontogenesis will occur over the area, further forcing snow development. Meanwhile, a new upper level jet enters from the southwest and the area will be squarely in the left exit region on Monday night, giving even more support for snowfall development. So what does this mean? Widespread heavy snowfall is expected to develop over portions of northern Ohio and NW PA with 4 to 8 inches of additional snow expected by Tuesday morning. However, with all of these features aligning, there is the potential for some mesobanding across the area and snowfall amounts may be higher than currently forecasted. This will need to be monitored going forward. In addition, some recent short term guidance members, most notably the NAM, have this heavier swath of snow further west than the current forecast and this trend will also need to be monitored. This morning, we have decided to hoist a Winter Storm Warning for most of our forecast area with a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of Northwest Ohio. This event is tricky with the exact messaging with multiple rounds of snow in a short window with a snowfall duration of 27-30 hours in most areas. With snow totals of 8 or more inches in that time span, the impacts of snow will be felt across the region and merits issuing a warning headline. In addition, there is potential for totals in isolated areas to be higher (a foot for some), whereas the floor of snow potential is still 5 to 6 inches in warning area, which isn`t nothing. In addition to snow impacts, temperatures will be cold through the event and with even a 10 mph wind, wind chills in the single digits to near zero are possible. The system departs to the east on Tuesday and while the heavy snow will be quick to leave, residual moisture will linger across the area and light snow showers are possible through Tuesday with light accumulations. Tuesday night should be mostly dry. Temperatures on Tuesday appear to be the coldest in sometime with widespread single digits with breaks in the clouds and a fresh snow pack to allow for temperatures to plummet.

@Jim MartinThis was my view South of Findlay on CR 313. Bad Drifting and ruts. It piled up very quickly for sure!