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January 2023


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40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A record breaking 8 warmer than normal winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño. 
 

NYC

Jan 23…+9.5

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.5

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.1

Jan 21….+2.2

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.9

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

 

Why should winter be different than any other season? When was the last time we had a BN summer?

 

Some of you guys make me laugh… you expect something to magically happen 3 months a year that doesnt happen in the other 9 months.

 

NYC was always marginal for prolonged cold and snow. Now its rapidly warming. Several of us were pointing out for years that 60 inch Islip winters were not a new normal but a finale before the show ended.

There have been many rainstorms since Nov. If we had even a drop of cold air, we would have measured snow. None. zero. zilch. 

Show’s over Folks. The future arrived. Get used to it. 40F and sun. +3 to normal high at 10 am…AGAIN

 

 

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20 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Which is why I'm not convinced a Nino next winter will help. Seem a Nino got us into this mess. Besides, we need changes in the Atlantic as well (regardless of ENSO).

Each new stronger El Niño just raises the bar on the record heat potential. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/where-does-global-warming-go-during-la-niña-0

 

CC7D5E50-A69A-4A72-8E2B-FEBAB2D0C33A.thumb.gif.0eee7ced0e7aa869de943be8b3743ce3.gif

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, lee59 said:

It always amazes me how people can be so certain about the future. Not saying anyone is correct or not correct but the only thing I believe about the future is that nobody knows what it brings.

it's going to keep getting warmer and our snowfall averages are going to start dropping rapidly 

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Crazy stat to think about…. 
 

From 1985 to 2019 there was only one winter we didn’t get enough snow in one event(2+ on pavement) to plow snow. That winter was 97-98 which was dominated by pac flow. 
 

Since 2019 in a short 4 year span it potentially will be 2! 19/20 22/23 Climate here is changing, the thread the needle snow events have become a thing of the past 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The JBs of the world are already crafting a new narrative about that. Now it's underwater volcanoes causing the warming 

:lmao: Up until a few years ago he denied that we were actually warming which was incredible.  Now it's that we are are warming but other things (like volcanoes) are to blame.  LOL

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Incredible. Even a near normal January would feel frigid compared to this

And it's not like it's been super hot, where we had days of 70s etc.  It just hasn't been cold.  Down in DC it feels like a typical winter in maybe Charlotte, NC.  Lows  35-40, highs in the low 50s.  Actually pretty unsettling tbh.

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12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy stat to think about…. 
 

From 1985 to 2019 there was only one winter we didn’t get enough snow in one event(2+ on pavement) to plow snow. That winter was 97-98 which was dominated by pac flow. 
 

Since 2019 in a short 4 year span it potentially will be 2! 19/20 22/23 Climate here is changing, the thread the needle snow events have become a thing of the past 

  I agree the climate is getting more mild. However from 2009 -2019 NYC averaged almost 40 inches of snow per year. I think it was because of a pattern that had so many storms going near the benchmark. Now we are in a pattern that has inland cutters so it favors more toward the Great Lakes. Yes I feel  like our winters are becoming more mild but it is a gradual thing not a turn off the switch for tons of snow to no snow.

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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Crazy stat to think about…. 
 

From 1985 to 2019 there was only one winter we didn’t get enough snow in one event(2+ on pavement) to plow snow. That winter was 97-98 which was dominated by pac flow. 
 

Since 2019 in a short 4 year span it potentially will be 2! 19/20 22/23 Climate here is changing, the thread the needle snow events have become a thing of the past 

Starting to look like 2013 to 2018 was our snowfall peak before the decline began in 2019. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 0.8 3.5 14.2 12.2 8.0 0.9 39.6
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 1.3 2.6 4.2 7.7 2.7 T 16.4
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T M M M T
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.8 3.1 19.9 16.4 12.5 0.8 53.5
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9
2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4
2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7
2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7
2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.9 2.5 7.3 7.9 1.4 T 18.1
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 0.4 T M M M 0.4
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 37.0
2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8
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Just now, lee59 said:

  I agree the climate is getting more mild. However from 2009 -2019 NYC averaged almost 40 inches of snow per year. I think it was because of a pattern that had so many storms going near the benchmark. Now we are in a pattern that has inland cutters so it favors more toward the Great Lakes. Yes I feel  like our winters are becoming more mild but it is a gradual thing not a turn on the switch for tons of snow to no snow.

On the other hand there's this quote from the baseball player Bill "Spaceman" Lee from years ago:

"I think about the cosmic snowball theory. A few million years from now the sun will burn out and lose its gravitational pull. The earth will turn into a giant snowball and be hurled through space. When that happens it won't matter if I get this guy out."

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5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

  I agree the climate is getting more mild. However from 2009 -2019 NYC averaged almost 40 inches of snow per year. I think it was because of a pattern that had so many storms going near the benchmark. Now we are in a pattern that has inland cutters so it favors more toward the Great Lakes. Yes I feel  like our winters are becoming more mild but it is a gradual thing not a turn off the switch for tons of snow to no snow.

Most stations will finish with their warmest January on record. That’s not just a storm track issue 

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8 minutes ago, lee59 said:

  I agree the climate is getting more mild. However from 2009 -2019 NYC averaged almost 40 inches of snow per year. I think it was because of a pattern that had so many storms going near the benchmark. Now we are in a pattern that has inland cutters so it favors more toward the Great Lakes. Yes I feel  like our winters are becoming more mild but it is a gradual thing not a turn off the switch for tons of snow to no snow.

We’ve also seen that we either have blockbusters or total bust winters, very few in between. Last year was an anomaly where I just about hit average on the nose but it was off one very big and one significant snow event. Climate change probably would reinforce the big snow or no patterns because of the warmer waters/more contrast fueling the blizzards and years like this fueling the massive SE ridge and constant warmth. The climate change fueled marine heatwaves will also change how Nino/Nina patterns develop because the hot western Pacific for example is enhancing the Nina background state. 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’ve also seen that we either have blockbusters or total bust winters, very few in between. Last year was an anomaly where I just about hit average on the nose but it was off one very big and one significant snow event. Climate change probably would reinforce the big snow or no patterns because of the warmer waters/more contrast fueling the blizzards and years like this fueling the massive SE ridge and constant warmth. The climate change fueled marine heatwaves will also change how Nino/Nina patterns develop because the hot western Pacific for example is enhancing the Nina background state. 

Yeah that makes sense to me.

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21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Stop posting then. You have been saying done since December. .

 

We have a possible threat next week

Like I said we have next week, then likely torch followed by one more threat in late Feb to early March. 

Not sure how the rest of March will play out but hopefully it's mild and not a cold, blocky mess. 

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Not much for us next week on 12z GFS and CMC. CMC has some rain showers changing over to snow showers tuesday night into wednesday, and misses us to the south with a more significant storm late week. But not a bad look having it missing us to the south with cold air in place. Late next week is the time to watch. At least it feels as if we have a chance for the first time in a long time. Hopefully it will work out, since we'll be going into a warmer pattern the following week. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Each new stronger El Niño just raises the bar on the record heat potential. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/where-does-global-warming-go-during-la-niña-0

 

CC7D5E50-A69A-4A72-8E2B-FEBAB2D0C33A.thumb.gif.0eee7ced0e7aa869de943be8b3743ce3.gif

 

 

 

We needed another sulfurous Pinatoobs, not a water vapor laden Hunga Tonga. Now we’re even doing large eruptions wrong. Meh. 

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1 minute ago, North and West said:


I know I’ll get beaten for saying this, but I think that’s overdramatic. Yes; it’s getting warmer, it’s just math. The world isn’t ending. It will snow again.


.

Well, the world actually might just be ending as we know it...in fact I read scientists saying as much all the time. I expect winters will get warmer here, and further north too. 

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This would have been something to be part of

Jan 25 - 29 1821 "The Hudson River was frozen solid during the midst of the coldest winter in forty-one years. Thousands of persons crossed the ice from New York City to New Jersey, and refreshment taverns were set up in the middle of the river to warm pedestrians. (David Ludlum)

 

This year pina coladas 

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