January 2023

[Winterweatherlover]

34 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Picked up a half inch yesterday, big whoop, brings me to 7 for the season. Again, big whoop. 

7 would be a run of the mill bad winter for nyc lol 

[Winterweatherlover]

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

“Bigger storm” this year without blocking probably means cutter or SWFE. I’d gladly take a smaller few inch type event. 

Fair point. I’d rather get a few inches pure snow than snow that changes to slop or rain. 

[gravitylover]

I'm at 2"  It's 46° and flurrying now 

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, matt8204 said:

It's like rooting for a terrible sports team that has no shot of making the playoffs and the season is only half over.  Just end it and get to free agency and the draft.

Pretty much the life of a US mens soccer fan......

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

They never recovered from the big die off in the late 90's which was never solved (some though it was from malathion they sprayed for west nile)

we have a house on the beach in Wading River. I grew up out there. You never comfortably swam before the Fourth of July and if you attempted to swim on memorial day, your froze.

Now you comfortably swim in June and they have a lifeguard there from Memorial Day on.

The summer time water temp change has been astounding over 35 years. That is why you saw such a large die off.

[NorthShoreWx]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

we have a house on the beach in Wading River. I grew up out there. You never comfortably swam before the Fourth of July and if you attempted to swim on memorial day, your froze.

Now you comfortably swim in June and they have a lifeguard there from Memorial Day on.

The summer time water temp change has been astounding over 35 years. That is why you saw such a large die off.

We used to head down to the ocean beaches.  No matter if July or August, it was always a shock getting into that cold water.  Of course we were kids, so once in the water it was hard to get us out no matter how much we were shivering.

[milleand]

 

I enjoy watching clips like this to remember what it was like to have snow lol. This video of the boxing day blizzard was just starting to show that we could really get a nice storm....That was a great few days

[Winterweatherlover]

So the GGEM is congrats Great Lakes Region

The Euro is congrats us

The GFS is congrats Southern Virginia and North Carolina

 

Next weeks storm should be interesting.  

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

we have a house on the beach in Wading River. I grew up out there. You never comfortably swam before the Fourth of July and if you attempted to swim on memorial day, your froze.

Now you comfortably swim in June and they have a lifeguard there from Memorial Day on.

The summer time water temp change has been astounding over 35 years. That is why you saw such a large die off.

yeah the sound by me routinely reaches the upper 70's now and we've hit 80 a couple of times...

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

So the GGEM is congrats Great Lakes Region

The Euro is congrats us

The GFS is congrats Southern Virginia and North Carolina

 

Next weeks storm should be interesting.  

2 out of 3 ain't bad

[ILoveWinter]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

snowy compared to here.  We are at an inch

I'm at 0.0 (technically a trace but that doesn't count)

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Fair point. I’d rather get a few inches pure snow than snow that changes to slop or rain. 

Exactly!

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

I'm at 0.0 (technically a trace but that doesn't count)

call it 0.T it looks better lol

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

we have a house on the beach in Wading River. I grew up out there. You never comfortably swam before the Fourth of July and if you attempted to swim on memorial day, your froze.

Now you comfortably swim in June and they have a lifeguard there from Memorial Day on.

The summer time water temp change has been astounding over 35 years. That is why you saw such a large die off.

it's also the runoff from the chemical crap that is being used, you see large algae blooms in lakes from that too (and not just here).  It's been a problem for decades and getting worse.

They now recommend not to bring pets near that or go into the lakes yourself because those chemicals cause burns and the odors are obnoxious.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah the sound by me routinely reaches the upper 70's now and we've hit 80 a couple of times...

do you have red tide and those algae blooms there too?

it's the warmer temp plus fertilizer run off from the crap they are using...it's going on everywhere now.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

So the GGEM is congrats Great Lakes Region

The Euro is congrats us

The GFS is congrats Southern Virginia and North Carolina

 

Next weeks storm should be interesting.  

whats the average of the models?

[vegan_edible]

Concerning next weeks storms if they come to fruition I have a feeling that the GFS is severely down-playing the southeast ridge, as proven with yesterdays event the Euro also doesn't know what the hell is going on. Going to be some interesting weather ahead. I hope we can score, seems as though this is one of our few windows of opportunity 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

Concerning next weeks storms if they come to fruition I have a feeling that the GFS is severely down-playing the southeast ridge, as proven with yesterdays event the Euro also doesn't know what the hell is going on. Going to be some interesting weather ahead. I hope we can score, seems as though this is one of our few windows of opportunity 

yeah none of our local long range forecasts have anything lol, I just hope we maintain the warmth through Tuesday I want that Jan 1932 record!

January should have 30 days anyway (as should March)-- no idea why they decided to shortchange February, if you added one day each from January and March to February, all 3 would have 30 days each and that would be perfect.

 

[EastonSN+]

Where we want it at this lead time....

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Where we want it at this lead time....

Where we want it at this lead time:

ANYWHERE BUT HERE

What the map shows

EVERYWHERE BUT HERE

lol

 

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

do you have red tide and those algae blooms there too?

it's the warmer temp plus fertilizer run off from the crap they are using...it's going on everywhere now.

 

havent seen any of that in the sound...yet at least 

[EastonSN+]

26 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Where we want it at this lead time....

Yup. To be fair it looks like the standard la Nina storm tracks (cutter slider).

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Where we want it at this lead time....

Yeah pretty much. 

[Winterweatherlover]

1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

Concerning next weeks storms if they come to fruition I have a feeling that the GFS is severely down-playing the southeast ridge, as proven with yesterdays event the Euro also doesn't know what the hell is going on. Going to be some interesting weather ahead. I hope we can score, seems as though this is one of our few windows of opportunity 

This is the best chance but far from a given. Need that southeast ridge to pump a bit but not too hard lol. 

[Winterweatherlover]

38 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup. To be fair it looks like the standard la Nina storm tracks (cutter slider).

I'm not sure if I'd be more upset with another cutter or a southern slider. I'm sick and tired of cutters but getting blanked while places to the south get snow also feels pretty bad.  

[USCG RS]

49 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'm not sure if I'd be more upset with another cutter or a southern slider. I'm sick and tired of cutters but getting blanked while places to the south get snow also feels pretty bad.  

This should be the boards theme for this winter. At least for Dec 2022.

 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Saturday will be partly sunny and mild days. Saturday could see the mercury approach or reach 50° in New York City.

New York City is now on track to see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +4.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.596 today.

On January 24 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.590 (RMM). The January 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.544 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (8.6° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'm not sure if I'd be more upset with another cutter or a southern slider. I'm sick and tired of cutters but getting blanked while places to the south get snow also feels pretty bad.  

There's two predominant storm tracks, one goes to the north of us and the other to the south of us.  NYC is in a bad place for west to east type tracks (or even southwest to southeast tracks unless they slope just right), we need coastals that are offshore-- but not too offshore.  Which means we need phasing.  But not too much phasing too early....

So NYC is much more thread the needle than other places, both north and south of us even in a "good" pattern.

It's why places both south and north of us often do better with snow....and also the fact that the ocean is to the south which is much worse than having it to your east (also bad for summer heat, which I love.)

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow and Saturday will be partly sunny and mild days. Saturday could see the mercury approach or reach 50° in New York City.

New York City is now on track to see its latest ever first measurable snowfall of the season. The existing record of January 29th was set in 1973. There is a distinct possibility that New York City could get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +4.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.596 today.

On January 24 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.590 (RMM). The January 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.544 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.3° (8.6° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

 

I think we can make it to 1....we just don't want the last day of the month to mess it up-- hence why I said January and March should both have 30 days and give those 2 days to February to balance out the calendar better.

The high was in the mid 50s both yesterday and today and looks like the weekend could be in the 50s too.

 

[Winterweatherlover]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There's two predominant storm tracks, one goes to the north of us and the other to the south of us.  NYC is in a bad place for west to east type tracks (or even southwest to southeast tracks unless they slope just right), we need coastals that are offshore-- but not too offshore.  Which means we need phasing.  But not too much phasing too early....

So NYC is much more thread the needle than other places, both north and south of us even in a "good" pattern.

It's why places both south and north of us often do better with snow....and also the fact that the ocean is to the south which is much worse than having it to your east (also bad for summer heat, which I love.)

 

I mean it's not the worst place to live for snow or we'd get less than DC...... lol

 

I agree NYC/LI is pretty heavily dependent on coastals though.