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January 2023


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12 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

GFS is playing games with this every other model showing snow BS. I hope the Euro stays a little more consistent. The GEM is calling for something moving through Tuesday, this cold is our best window for something I'm hoping it pans out in our favor

The cold is coming in after Tuesday (the earliest will be Tuesday night), so look for something right after that.

 

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Was just reading there are two other “pine barrens” in LI and MA, that’s very cool. Somehow I’ve lived down here for ten years and never really paid much mind or given much thought to it, but always felt it got a little ‘extra’ chilly here at night. 

Regarding the Jersey Devil, I grew up in central Monmouth and have fun memories playing in the woods with friends as a kid hunting the Jersey Devil. We’d tell each other crazy stories and go out at night and especially around Halloween. I remember one time someone deliberately threw a black garbage bag up in a tree deep in the woods to scare the crap out of us :lol:.

Ahh, good times. 

Now let’s get some damn snow, eh? Finally my local forecast app doesn’t read like November beyond the next few days…

ah I love stuff like that-- makes for some fun campfire stories!

Getting some snow next week would be even more fun though!

 

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4 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

again... weirdest winter ever.  Basically pretty warm wire-to-wire, but the biggest snowfall in NYC history and the coldest temp in 22 years.  Sure.

And if it wasn't for their biggest snowfall in history, it would have been one of the worst winters ever for snowfall, probably top 5 with just 5.4" 

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The last 4 days of January are averaging     42degs.(36/48) or +9.

Month to date is     43.2[+9.5].         January should end at      43.0[+9.3].   Second Place.

Reached 43 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:    47-50, wind w., p. cloudy, 43 tomorrow AM.

Get Ready for another HW:

1674885600-waxd7fM4QG0.png

38*(61%RH) here at 6am.{was 36* at 2am}     39* at 9am.     42* at 10am.      47* at Noon.      50* at 1pm.      Reached 51* 2pm-3:30pm.      49* at 6pm.      48* at 9pm.

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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Cold is from Wednesday to Friday with no freezing or below lows until February 1st.
 

I actually think those temps are somewhat underdone, we'll probably see three straight 50+ temps (this weekend and Monday.)

 

I’ll say this again… the temp on these GFS graphs are always 3 to 5° above what actually occurs. am I the only one noticing this??!!

 

I would never bet on them being the under :)

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9 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

it's just... mild.  Like, you walk outside, and it doesn't feel that cold.  It's not like it's been 70+ (although we've had 6 days of 60s this month in DC).  I think you are seeing the same thing in the urban areas all up and down I-95.  There just isn't much cold air around, so at night, the UHI basically dominates.  Sure, your typical areas will get their radiational cooling.  But we're talking 20s at night - not exactly frigid.

I think the most disconcerting thing is that literally after a frontal passage, it STILL struggles to get below freezing.  WTF?

Yeah, the low of 20° so far at a more rural station like Port Jervis is the warmest on record for January. It was 3° warmer than any previous January. Same for the urbanized NYC which only fell to 28° which was also 3° warmer than any other year. A more rural White Plains at the airport only dropped to 27° which was 5° warmer than the previous warmest.


 

Time Series Summary for PORT JERVIS, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 20 4
2 1990 17 0
3 1932 16 1
4 1937 12 0
5 1913 11 1


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 28 4
2 1937 25 0
3 1990 24 0
- 1932 24 0
4 2002 21 0
- 1993 21 0
- 1953 21 0
5 2020 20 0
- 1949 20 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 26 4
2 1990 21 1
3 1953 18 0
4 1993 17 2
5 2002 16 0
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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it needs to be on the level of 02-03 or 09-10, weak el ninos wont do it for us anymore

 

Right. That's one way to do it. The other way is to see some cooling of that warm pool. And that's still possible at times as well, because there's still going to be at least some variation with it. Like there is with enso. That feature has the ability to take control of global weather patterns though. Since it's intrinsically linked with enso. So I personally have some grave concerns about that feature continuing to warm in the future. 

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23 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Right. That's one way to do it. The other way is to see some cooling of that warm pool. And that's still possible at times as well, because there's still going to be at least some variation with it. Like there is with enso. That feature has the ability to take control of global weather patterns though. Since it's intrinsically linked with enso. So I personally have some grave concerns about that feature continuing to warm in the future. 

if we get too strong of Nino, doesn’t that risk a 15-16 debacle?

historically, I feel like snow and cold. strong Niños are not a good thing for New York City.

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Today's records

Highs:

NYC: 66 (1916)
EWR: 62 (2002)
LGA: 60 (2002)

 

Lows:

EWR: -4 (1935)
NYC: -2 (1925)
LGA: 7 (2005)

 

1922 - The "Knickerbocker" storm immobilized the city of Washington D.C. The storm produced 28 inches of snow in 32 hours, and the heavy snow caused the roof of the Knickerbocker movie theatre to collapse killing 96 persons. (David Ludlum)

 

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44 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Right. That's one way to do it. The other way is to see some cooling of that warm pool. And that's still possible at times as well, because there's still going to be at least some variation with it. Like there is with enso. That feature has the ability to take control of global weather patterns though.

Yeah, several new all-time rainfall records associated with that warm pool.

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

if we get too strong of Nino, doesn’t that risk a 15-16 debacle?

historically, I feel like snow and cold. strong Niños are not a good thing for New York City.

And that's true also. That's because they set up too much of a gradient. Same thing with strong la ninas. It's usually too overwhelming. Where it's positioned matters too. These circulations alter the jet stream. It's all such a fine balance. That's without even adding anything else into that equation lol. And there's a lot. But this is one of our most important factors for sure. Since it happens in the Pacific.

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds will increase today. It will be unseasonably mild. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 49°

Newark: 51°

Philadelphia: 52°

The mild weather will continue through Monday before it turns colder. 

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 39.5°; 15-Year: 39.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 40.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 41.6°

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Impressive number of stations averaging near or over 40° in January. This is why there are so many stations close to the warmest January on record. So numerous +10s around the area.

 

Data for January 1, 2023 through January 28, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 44.0
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 43.2
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 43.1
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 43.0
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 42.3
NJ HARRISON COOP 42.1
NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 41.9
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 41.8
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 41.6
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 41.4
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 41.3
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 41.3
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 41.2
NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 41.2
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 41.0
CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 41.0
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 39.9
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 39.9
NY CENTERPORT COOP 39.8
NY SYOSSET COOP 39.8
NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 39.7
CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 39.4
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 39.4
NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 39.0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 44.0 4
2 1932 42.0 0
3 1990 40.4 0
4 1950 40.3 0
5 1998 40.1 0
6 2006 39.6 0
7 2002 39.4 0
8 1937 39.0 0
9 1933 38.8 0
10 2020 38.7 0
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1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

if we get too strong of Nino, doesn’t that risk a 15-16 debacle?

historically, I feel like snow and cold. strong Niños are not a good thing for New York City.

high end moderate to strong is good, very strong is okay, if you like big snowstorms, especially for the south shore of Long Island, which had two of its biggest storms ever in February 1983 and January 2016.

 

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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Impressive number of stations averaging near or over 40° in January. This is why there are so many stations close to the warmest January on record. So numerous +10s around the area.

 

Data for January 1, 2023 through January 28, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 44.0
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 43.2
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 43.1
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 43.0
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 42.3
NJ HARRISON COOP 42.1
NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 41.9
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 41.8
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 41.6
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 41.4
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 41.3
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 41.3
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 41.2
NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 41.2
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 41.0
CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 41.0
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 39.9
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 39.9
NY CENTERPORT COOP 39.8
NY SYOSSET COOP 39.8
NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 39.7
CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 39.4
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 39.4
NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 39.0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 44.0 4
2 1932 42.0 0
3 1990 40.4 0
4 1950 40.3 0
5 1998 40.1 0
6 2006 39.6 0
7 2002 39.4 0
8 1937 39.0 0
9 1933 38.8 0
10 2020 38.7 0

Three straight days of 50+ upcoming, let's beat that Jan 1932 record!

 

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48 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

And that's true also. That's because they set up too much of a gradient. Same thing with strong la ninas. It's usually too overwhelming. Where it's positioned matters too. These circulations alter the jet stream. It's all such a fine balance. That's without even adding anything else into that equation lol. And there's a lot. But this is one of our most important factors for sure. Since it happens in the Pacific.

strong el ninos are good for us because we get our biggest snowstorms in them

 

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2 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

I’ll say this again… the temp on these GFS graphs are always 3 to 5° above what actually occurs. am I the only one noticing this??!!

 

I would never bet on them being the under :)

They've been underdone in the short term this winter-- I see the local forecasts are now going for 3 straight 50+ days too.

Over the longer range they may be overdone though.

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the low of 20° so far at a more rural station like Port Jervis is the warmest on record for January. It was 3° warmer than any previous January. Same for the urbanized NYC which only fell to 28° which was also 3° warmer than any other year. A more rural White Plains at the airport only dropped to 27° which was 5° warmer than the previous warmest.


 

Time Series Summary for PORT JERVIS, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 20 4
2 1990 17 0
3 1932 16 1
4 1937 12 0
5 1913 11 1


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 28 4
2 1937 25 0
3 1990 24 0
- 1932 24 0
4 2002 21 0
- 1993 21 0
- 1953 21 0
5 2020 20 0
- 1949 20 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 26 4
2 1990 21 1
3 1953 18 0
4 1993 17 2
5 2002 16 0

We won't get another low of freezing or below this entire month, so that's another 1932 record we should beat.

 

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1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Right. That's one way to do it. The other way is to see some cooling of that warm pool. And that's still possible at times as well, because there's still going to be at least some variation with it. Like there is with enso. That feature has the ability to take control of global weather patterns though. Since it's intrinsically linked with enso. So I personally have some grave concerns about that feature continuing to warm in the future. 

Since we shift normals every 30 years, I think the absolute temperature will probably either remain steady or slowly rise, but it may change relative to the current "normals"

This will have (already has) had dramatic impacts on sea life.

 

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Impressive number of stations averaging near or over 40° in January. This is why there are so many stations close to the warmest January on record. So numerous +10s around the area.

 

Data for January 1, 2023 through January 28, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Mean Avg Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 44.0
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 43.2
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 43.1
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 43.0
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 42.3
NJ HARRISON COOP 42.1
NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 41.9
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 41.8
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 41.6
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 41.4
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 41.3
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 41.3
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 41.2
NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 41.2
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 41.0
CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 41.0
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 39.9
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 39.9
NY CENTERPORT COOP 39.8
NY SYOSSET COOP 39.8
NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 39.7
CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 39.4
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 39.4
NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 39.0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 44.0 4
2 1932 42.0 0
3 1990 40.4 0
4 1950 40.3 0
5 1998 40.1 0
6 2006 39.6 0
7 2002 39.4 0
8 1937 39.0 0
9 1933 38.8 0
10 2020 38.7 0

I am currently at 40.6 for the month.

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Three straight days of 50+ upcoming, let's beat that Jan 1932 record!

 

Yeah, with a brief cool down next weekend. 
 

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/28/2023  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  28| SUN 29| MON 30| TUE 31| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04 CLIMO
 X/N  52| 40  52| 41  50| 31  39| 25  39| 30  42| 32  40| 15  28 24 39
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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I think CPK beats 97/98 this year.

97/98 was saved by a late March fluke. Can't rely on that.

This place is going to be a party when we get the next 02/03, 14/15, 15/16 etc etc.....

Yeah probably next year or the year after....

Fits right in with our boom or bust new climate.

 

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