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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Yeah probably next year or the year after....

Fits right in with our boom or bust new climate.

 

20/21 was at least somewhat close to average. I was at 42 inches my Average is 30 to 35.

I think boom or bust is the norm. Since 1990 I have only reached average, or within 5 inches of average, in 1993, 2006 and 2016. Either complete failures like most winters in the 90s or this winter.

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

20/21 was at least somewhat close to average. I was at 42 inches my Average is 30 to 35.

I think boom or bust is the norm. Since 1990 I have only reached average, or within 5 inches of average, in 1993, 2006 and 2016. Either complete failures like most winters in the 90s or this winter.

Yeah we were close to normal because of that one storm, but people in the city and west of there had snowfall in the teens.

That was an annoying winter because it had the potential to be more.

 

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14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Can be, have to be careful though 

793mmv.jpg.200f3afaa028d012e514672c9ff8611c.jpg

97-98 would've been a really nice winter had it been a few degrees cooler. Lots of favorable tracks but just overwhelmed in warm air. 09-10 did end up a good season despite the 2/6 disaster, and 1/23/16 was set to miss us as well but there was a last minute 75 mile north bump that saved most of us. We never really have a 'gimme' winter here.

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

97-98 would've been a really nice winter had it been a few degrees cooler. Lots of favorable tracks but just overwhelmed in warm air. 09-10 did end up a good season despite the 2/6 disaster, and 1/23/16 was set to miss us as well but there was a last minute 75 mile north bump that saved most of us. We never really have a 'gimme' winter here.

15-16 was much like 82-83, just warmer (except for that memorable VD though.)

 

 

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

97-98 would've been a really nice winter had it been a few degrees cooler. Lots of favorable tracks but just overwhelmed in warm air. 09-10 did end up a good season despite the 2/6 disaster, and 1/23/16 was set to miss us as well but there was a last minute 75 mile north bump that saved most of us. We never really have a 'gimme' winter here.

Yeah, I'm just having some fun. So very much goes into it. I'm becoming more and more of a believer that the PDO plays a tremendous role too. The more I read about that in updated research. Same idea with the gradients. I feel like this was a major factor in 95-96 TBH. La nina, but positive PDO that year. I think that helped us out. Quite rare to see that with la nina. 

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28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

97-98 would've been a really nice winter had it been a few degrees cooler. Lots of favorable tracks but just overwhelmed in warm air. 09-10 did end up a good season despite the 2/6 disaster, and 1/23/16 was set to miss us as well but there was a last minute 75 mile north bump that saved most of us. We never really have a 'gimme' winter here.

The only difference I see between 97/98 is 97/98 felt hopeless the entire winter. 

This winter we absolutely blew a golden opportunity. First storm too early for most (I only had 1.5). 2nd storm northern stream low absolutely exploded and became historically strong which is what ultimately did us in and avoided a December 2000 storm, the 3rd low which held a ton of potential was suppressed/moisture robbed from the historic 2nd storm.

Now, as many we're saying la Ninas you have to score early as January and February are often hostile. We failed and now we are getting skunked.

Sure we can score late Feb and March due to shorter wavelengths and all, but I would bet against at his point.

 

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Some snow on the gfs for next week

Nice big cold Arctic High sliding to our north to provide the coldest weather since Christmas to the North East and Mid-Atlantic late next week and next weekend.  Once that slides east back to above normal again.  Nice cold shot coming for a few days late week/weekend though.  Useless cold but cold nonetheless.

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40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Some snow on the gfs for next week

12z GFS didn’t look terrible to me honestly. Looks like there’s room for favorable trends, taking just the idea of each wave.

How do the ensembles look right now? 

That big blown up coastal with rain far inland fits this season to a T. Offshore track, rains hundreds of miles inland in every direction from the coast. If that doesn’t turn into a cutter perhaps there’s room to make that workable? Gathering cold would be the, ahem, issue. 

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7 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

12z GFS didn’t look terrible to me honestly. Looks like there’s room for favorable trends, taking just the idea of each wave.

How do the ensembles look right now? 

That big blown up coastal with rain far inland fits this season to a T. Offshore track, rains hundreds of miles inland in every direction from the coast. If that doesn’t turn into a cutter perhaps there’s room to make that workable? Gathering cold would be the, ahem, issue. 

image.png.822ea4931dbe7fe1d070b190a57107fa.png
image.png.9ed1c1cc7562947f0bd1025024106674.png

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28 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

12z GFS didn’t look terrible to me honestly. Looks like there’s room for favorable trends, taking just the idea of each wave.

How do the ensembles look right now? 

That big blown up coastal with rain far inland fits this season to a T. Offshore track, rains hundreds of miles inland in every direction from the coast. If that doesn’t turn into a cutter perhaps there’s room to make that workable? Gathering cold would be the, ahem, issue. 

 

The snowless streak ends in the next 10 days, its just a question of if its 0.5 or 2.2 or we get a big one...if we do its certainly gonna be in the 2/4-2/8 period..thereafter it may go fairly close to shutout pattern or total shutout eventually for mid to late February before maybe there are chances again first 2 weeks of March

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Some snow on the gfs for next week

Yeah GFS gives us about an inch thursday morning. CMC is well to the south. GFS brings another storm the end of next weekend, but the problem is the cold air is pulling out at that point. So I think it's important for us to get something mid to late week when we have cold air in place. This looks like our best chance for the NYC area to finally get a little accumulating snow this winter. 

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Euro misses us to the south with that little thursday wave that GFS gives us a little snow with. Precip almost makes it up to southern NJ on the Euro. I think this wave is our best chance so far this winter to give NYC a little accumulating snow, but of course we haven't had any decent chances up to this point so that's not saying much. 

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15 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro misses us to the south with that little thursday wave that GFS gives us a little snow with. Precip almost makes it up to southern NJ on the Euro. I think this wave is our best chance so far this winter to give NYC a little accumulating snow, but of course we haven't had any decent chances up to this point so that's not saying much. 

Yea it's probably the best chance we've had but agree that's not saying much. Hopefully the non gfs models can tick north a bit. 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The snowless streak ends in the next 10 days, its just a question of if its 0.5 or 2.2 or we get a big one...if we do its certainly gonna be in the 2/4-2/8 period..thereafter it may go fairly close to shutout pattern or total shutout eventually for mid to late February before maybe there are chances again first 2 weeks of March

 

Mid week seems like a max 1-3 inch type event if it ends up far enough north to hit us and not too far north that we end up with mix/rain.  

Seems the chance for a big one would be as the pattern is changing (around 2/6-2/7) but right now it already looks like the cold is gone by then. 

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Would like to see a positive trend for a change. Don’t think it’s unreasonable to say we’re due when literally everything has broken the opposite direction since Dec 1st. I know many SNE people are really hurting too, we need a region wide moderate snowfall. Even if that’s it for the rest of the way, let’s avoid an all out catastrophe with at least something that could be construed as fun to track and experience. 

Might be asking too much given the way things are going, but as mentioned I’m leaving the door cracked enough for a pleasant surprise. If not, well no one could argue it isn’t fitting… 

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3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Would like to see a positive trend for a change. Don’t think it’s unreasonable to say we’re due when literally everything has broken the opposite direction since Dec 1st. I know many SNE people are really hurting too, we need a region wide moderate snowfall. Even if that’s it for the rest of the way, let’s avoid an all out catastrophe with at least something that could be construed as fun to track and experience. 

Might be asking too much given the way things are going, but as mentioned I’m leaving the door cracked enough for a pleasant surprise. If not, well no one could argue it isn’t fitting… 

I sorta agree with snowgoose it’s hard to see us getting nothing in the next 10 days but if it ends up like 0.1 inches it would be pathetic. 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The snowless streak ends in the next 10 days, its just a question of if its 0.5 or 2.2 or we get a big one...if we do its certainly gonna be in the 2/4-2/8 period..thereafter it may go fairly close to shutout pattern or total shutout eventually for mid to late February before maybe there are chances again first 2 weeks of March

I'm still very skeptical of this. We're getting a few hits here and then on the odd model run or individual ensemble member. But the CMC and EC are largely unsupportive right now. When there's precipitation temperatures look marginal, especially for urban areas. As soon as it's cold enough it may be hard to get precipitation to our latitude until after the height field resets. Then it's likely back to cutter city.

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3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The snowless streak ends in the next 10 days, its just a question of if its 0.5 or 2.2 or we get a big one...if we do its certainly gonna be in the 2/4-2/8 period..thereafter it may go fairly close to shutout pattern or total shutout eventually for mid to late February before maybe there are chances again first 2 weeks of March

I’m not as optimistic as you are. Ensembles aren’t as optimistic as I would like. There is some support, and the next 10 days are definitely our best opportunity. 

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