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January 2023


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Liberty Bell and anyone else interested in pre-1869 NYC weather, some indication of weather patterns could be gained from reading the daily meteorological journal of Alexis Caswell in Providence RI (it extends from about 1831 to 1860). He was more or less one of the main founders of American meteorology through the Smithsonian Institution who have preserved his journals. 

You can read a bit about him at wikipedia, I noted that he was born on today's date in 1799 and died in January of 1877. 

I attempted to post a link to the weather journal. For some reason the software here will not accept the link (possibly because there's a google.ca domain?) ... anyway, try going through the wikipedia article as the link there works for me (it's at the bottom of the text identified as Smithsonian blah blah ...)  I intended to set it at Jan 1857 because that month had some severe cold that was accompanied by strong northwest winds, Toronto fell a bit lower than his -14 F reading (to -22 F) but I would imagine NYC was in that ball park too. Also his three daily readings do not necessarily capture extremes and sometimes he made notes of those in the marginal comments. 

This is the link I have, perhaps if you block copy it and try it directly, it might work.


Possibly a U.S. based wikipedia user will get a different link to the journal. If anyone succeeds in opening it could you post the link that works? This link works for me as supplied but not as copied. 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and very mild. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°

Newark: 53°

Philadelphia: 55°

Cooler air will return tomorrow. A short Arctic blast is likely toward the end of the week. 


New York City: 30-Year: 39.7°; 15-Year: 39.9°

Newark: 30-Year: 40.2°; 15-Year: 40.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.5°; 15-Year: 41.7°

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The last 2 days of January are averaging     44degs.(39/49) or +10.

Month to date is     43.4[+9.7].            January should end at     43.4[+9.7].    First Place.

Reached 52 here yesterday at 4pm.

Today:     48-50, wind w., m. cloudy, 37 tomorrow AM.

LR Models agree the next 30-45 days will be BN everywhere in N.A. except Florida and/or the E.C.



43*(76%RH) here at 6am.     42* at 7am.      44* at 9am.      45* at 10am.      48* at 11am.      49* at Noon.      50* at 12:30pm.

54* at 3pm.     Reached  55* at 3:30pm.      48* at 6pm.

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MJO phase 6 by the 13th.
Getting to 8 before the end of the season will likely be the determining factor as to whether or not we get at least 1 snow period this season (of course we could always get a fluke like Feb. 18, Jan 12, March 98 etc etc.).

can it snow on phase 6? i know 8 is cold and snow but what about 6 Anthony?

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6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

This has really been the perfect storm for breaking records in NYC. First the snow record, just about everyone got a little snow in December but not Central Park, probably because of the heat island. Then the cold, which like turning on a switch, arrives just as January ends.

It came down to messing up a good setup in December.

Ultimately, the northern stream low took over and became historically strong, which then stripped the 3rd low of moisture and suppressed it.

That 3rd low had a TON of potential!! Had the 2nd storm been weaker we would not be talking about the record now.

Take December 2000 for instance, one storm hit us and could easily have missed to the SE. We were bound to strike out at some point.

In a typical la Nina, your window is early and sometimes late. Now we wait to see if we get to phase 8 in time. 




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