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January 2023


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19 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Agree not that we can control it anyway but I am not really rooting for this.  

Doesn’t matter what you’re rooting for. It’s a deep and powerful transient cold shot…like xmas day. It will likely be the last one of the year and it looks like we rebound right to Pacific air right afterwards.

 

As for not verifying… At this point, it’s three days out. 

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Don's work inspired me to check out the comparable "futility" and "severity" top winters for Toronto which has a longer period of data (1840-41 to present for winters). This is the full list, I left the middle values in but gave them a small print size so if you're really interested in the middle of the table, magnify away ...

The ranks are based on combined rank order (from 01 to 183) for both DJF mean temp, and total winter snowfalls. Ranks are then added, and ties are broken in favor of most snowfall being more severe. Just to clarify, ranks for temperature run 01 mildest (2001-02 +1.30 C) to 183 coldest (1874-75 -8.57 C) and ranks for total snowfall run 01 least (45.9 cm or about 18" in 2011-12) to 183 most (313.7 cm or 123.5" in 1869-70, a lot of this fell in March 1870). Data are for downtown Toronto which has had a weather station at a parkland setting (on a university campus) that is not vastly different from Central Park in relation to the metropolis, except that there are fewer tree canopy issues as the campus has more isolated mature trees at some distance from one another. I have listed temperatures in my study both "raw" and adjusted for u.h.i., and could have adjusted these temperatures, but then the point of the table is to compare severity of actual winters for the people that experienced them at the time. The climate signal aspect of this would perhaps require a bit of an adjustment upwards for the older portions of the temperatures. Also the considerable urban heat island of Toronto probably has had a reducing effect on winter snowfall that I estimate might be 5 to 10 per cent, but most of the reason for generally low totals in recent decades is a shift in air mass frequency rather than urban heat island. Toronto snowfalls look heavy compared to NYC but it has to be kept in mind that considerable mixed falls involve rapid disappearance of parts of these totals, in a typical winter Toronto will see several periods of snow cover separated by intervals of bare ground. 

1931-32 was probably close to "most futile" for running values to end of January but then began to pick up plenty of snowfall in Feb and Mar, while remaining mild through Feb and ending up 5th mildest. The winter of 1841-42 was another quite futile outcome as shown, and the pulse of about 90 years is interesting (1842, 1932, 2023) although not meant to displace climate change (or underwater volcanoes ;) ) as cause of recent lack of severity. Unlike NYC, Toronto's snowfall trend in recent decades has just been a steady decline and there is no similar phenomenon to the recent all or nothing trend on the east coast. As you know, Toronto gets a lot of its snow from weather systems that sweep their warm sectors across NYC, although there are some storm tracks where both locations can score. On the other hand, Toronto's snowfall during periods of heavy snow at NYC is likely to be no better than low-average. For example, only small amounts of snow or zero snowfalls accompanied most of NYC's top ten storms. The more futile winters overlap basically because the storm track ran so far north that Toronto was also often in the milder sector. This past January will not threaten the lead of 1932 in that monthly ranking, in fact the most likely finish looks like 5th warmest. 

2022-23 is placed in the list on the basis of a relatively mild Feb (-2.3) and a relatively modest 30 cm of snow from Feb 1 to end of winter. There has already been about 60 cm of snow in several events. Some ranks in this table could change (by one up or down) if Toronto's outcome is different from this projection. The winter could still finish higher than 10th as shown in the futility list. Some time in April I will make a note of any changes. This table has also been saved into the Toronto-NYC data study in the climate change section. 

 

TORONTO (downtown) SEVERITY LIST 1840-41 to 2022-23 (est) 

(Top values least severe, or most "futile" and bottom of table shows most severe values)

Rank ____ Winter ___ Temp DJF (C) (rank) ___Total Winter Snow (cm) (rank)

_ 01 _____2011-12 __ +0.77 (02) _____________ 45.9 (01) ____ total rank 03

_ 02 ____ 2015-16 __ +0.57 (03) _____________ 59.7 (04) ___ total rank 07

_ 03 ____ 1952-53 __ -0.37 (07) _____________ 46.8 (03) ___ total rank 10

_ 04 ____ 2001-02 __ +1.30 (01) _____________ 71.4 (09) ___ total rank 10 

_ 05 ____ 1982-83 __ -0.50 (t08) ____________ 73.0 (10) ___ total rank 18

_ 06 ____ 1932-33 __ -1.10 (16) ______________ 65.3 (05) ___ total rank 21 

_ 07 ____ 2016-17 __ +0.03 (06) _____________ 77.0 (15) ___ total rank 21

_ 08 ____ 2005-06 __ -1.00 (15) _____________ 70.4 (08) ___ total rank 23

_ 09 ____ 1936-37 __ -1.17 (18) ______________ 70.3 (07) ___ total rank 25

_ 10 ____ 2022-23 est-0.60 (10) ___________est90.0 (24) ___ total rank 34

_ 11 __ 1999-2000 ___ -1.27 (19) _____________ 82.8 (19) ___ total rank 38

_ 12 ____ 2006-07 __ -1.90 (33) _____________ 67.9 (06) ___ total rank 39

_ 13 ____ 1994-95 __ -1.70 (t27) _____________ 75.4 (12) ___ total rank 39

_ 14 ____ 1881-82 __ -1.70 (t27) _____________ 77.2 (16) ___ total rank 43

_ 15 ____ 2009-10 __ -2.47 (t43) ____________ 46.2 (02) ___ total rank 45

_ 16 ____ 1918-19 __ -1.33 (21) _______________ 93.0 (26)__ total rank 47

_ 17 ____ 1905-06 __ -2.13 (t38) _____________ 76.6 (13) ___ total rank 51

_ 18 ____ 1877-78 __ -2.10 (37) ______________ 76.7 (14) ___ total rank 51

_ 19 ____ 1841-42 __ -2.37 (42) ______________ 75.0 (11) ___ total rank 53

_ 20 ____ 1997-98 __ +0.50 (04) ____________ 115.6 (t49) __ total rank 53

_ 21 ____ 1988-89 __ -1.97 (34) _______________87.2 (21) __ total rank 55

_ 22 ____ 2020-21 __ -1.47 (t22) _____________100.5 (33) _ total rank 55

_ 23 ____ 1889-90 __ -0.87 (14) _____________ 112.3 (43) __ total rank 57

_ 24 ____ 1990-91 __ -1.30 (20) _____________ 104.2 (38) __ total rank 58

_ 25 ____ 1991-92 __ -1.73 (29) _______________96.4 (30) __ total rank 59

_ 26 ____ 1987-88 __ -2.00 (35) ______________ 92.4 (25) __ total rank 60

_ 27 ____ 1920-21 __ -1.53 (26) ______________ 109.0 (40) __ total rank 66

_ 28 ____ 1974-75 __ -0.50 (t08) _____________ 121.9 (59) __ total rank 67

_ 29 ____ 1847-48 __ -2.53 (t47) ______________ 88.6 (22) __ total rank 69

_ 30 ____ 2012-13 __ -0.63 (t11) _____________ 124.0 (60) __ total rank 71

_ 31 ____ 1912-13 __ -2.13 (t38) _____________ 100.9 (34) __ total rank 72

_ 32 ____ 1957-58 __ -2.93 (t57) ________________ 79.6 (18) __ total rank 75

_ 33 ____ 2017-18 __ -2.90 (t55) ______________ 95.2 (28)__ total rank 83

_ 34 ____ 1948-49 __ -1.13 (17) ______________ 128.3 (71) __ total rank 88

_ 35 ____ 1943-44 __ -2.57 (49) _____________ 110.0 (41) _ total rank 90

_ 36 ____ 1928-29 __ -3.37 (78) ______________ 85.7 (20) __ total rank 98 

_ 37 ____ 1941-42 __ -3.33 (77) ______________ 89.6 (23) __ total rank 100

_ 38 ____ 1937-38 __ -3.53 (t85) _____________78.4 (17) __ total rank 102

_ 39 ____ 1927-28 __ -3.27 (73) ______________ 96.4 (29) __ total rank 102

_ 40 ____ 1968-69 __ -3.23 (72) ____________  97.0 (31) __ total rank 103

_ 41 ____ 2003-04 __ -2.97 (62) ____________ 110.1 (42) __ total rank 104

_ 42 ____ 2019-20 __ -0.63 (t11) _____________144.5 (94) __ total rank 105

_ 43 ____ 1931-32 __ +0.47 (05) ____________ 149.3 (100) _ total rank 105

_ 44 ____ 1953-54 __ -1.47 (t22) _____________135.7 (85) _ total rank 107

_ 45 ____ 1972-73 __ -2.60 (t50) ____________ 114.5 (45) _ total rank 108

_ 46 ____ 2018-19 __ -2.47 (t43) ____________ 128.0 (70) _ total rank 113

_ 47 ____ 1858-59 __ -3.40 (t79) ____________ 104.9 (39) _ total rank 118

_ 48 ____ 1979-80 __ -3.00 (t63) ____________ 121.1 (t55) _ total rank 118

_ 49 ____ 1954-55 __ -2.90 (t55) ____________ 125.9 (64) _ total rank 119

_ 50 ____ 1891-92 __ -3.53 (t85) ____________ 102.9 (35) _ total rank 120

_ 51 ____ 1950-51 __ -2.33 (41) ______________134.2 (80) _ total rank 121

_ 52 ____ 1986-87 __ -1.77 (30) ______________146.7 (96) _ total rank 126

_ 53 ____ 1956-57 __ -2.60 (t50) ____________ 132.6 (t77) _ total rank 127

_ 54 ____ 1921-22 __ -3.30 (t74) _____________ 121.1 (t55) _ total rank 129

_ 55 ____ 2021-22 __ -2.47 (t43) _____________136.1 (86) _ total rank 129

_ 56 ____ 1989-90 __ -3.10 (t69) ____________ 126.4 (65) _ total rank 134

_ 57 ____ 1896-97 __ -3.87 (99) _____________ 103.1 (36) _ total rank 135

_ 58 ____ 1998-99 __ -0.73 (13) _____________162.2 (122) _ total rank 135

_ 59 ____ 1849-50 __ -3.17 (71) _____________ 127.5 (t66) __ total rank 137

_ 60 ____ 1980-81 __ -4.20 (111) _____________ 94.3 (27) __ total rank 138

_ 61 ____ 1857-58 __ -3.53 (t85) ____________ 119.7 (53) __ total rank 138

_ 62 ____ 1965-66 __ -2.53 (t47) ____________143.7 (93) __ total rank 140

_ 63 ____ 1985-86 __ -3.83 (t95) ___________ 115.0 (47) __ total rank 142

_ 64 ____ 1879-80 __ -1.83 (31) _____________ 156.1 (116) __ total rank 147

_ 65 ____ 2004-05 __ -3.03 (66) ____________ 139.4 (87) _ total rank 153

_ 66 ____ 1967-68 __ -4.07 (108) ____________ 116.9 (51) _ total rank 159

_ 67 ____ 1863-64 __ -3.73 (93) _____________ 127.5 (t66) _ total rank 159

_ 68 ____ 1996-97 __ -1.47 (t22) _____________174.4 (138) _ total rank 160

_ 69 ____ 1852-53 __ -3.70 (92) _____________ 127.8 (69) _ total rank 161

_ 70 ____ 1984-85 __ -2.67 (t53) ____________ 153.0 (108) _ total rank 161

_ 71 ____ 2010-11 __ -3.93 (t100) ____________ 124.3 (62) _ total rank 162

_ 72 ____ 1973-74 __ -3.43 (t81) _____________ 134.9 (82) _ total rank 163

_ 73 ____ 2008-09 __ -3.60 (t89) ____________ 130.1 (75) _ total rank 164

_ 74 ____ 1961-62 __ -4.27 (t117) _____________115.5 (48) _ total rank 165

_ 75 ____ 1939-40 __ -4.00 (107) ____________ 121.5 (58) _ total rank 165

_ 76 ____ 1897-98 __ -3.40 (t79) _____________140.7 (t88) _ total rank 167

_ 77 ____ 1930-31 __ -2.93 (t57) _____________ 153.4 (110) _ total rank 167

_ 78 ____ 1949-50 __ -1.50 (25) ______________ 177.6 (142) _ total rank 167

_ 79 ____ 1926-27 __ -4.43 (t122) ____________ 115.6 (t49) _ total rank 171

_ 80 ____ 1960-61 __ -3.83 (t95) _____________ 130.3 (76) _ total rank 171

_ 81 ____ 1963-64 __ -3.43 (83) _____________ 142.8 (t91) _ total rank 174

_ 82 ____ 1865-66 __ -4.73 (130) ____________ 114.8 (46) _ total rank 176

_ 83 ____ 1992-93 __ -2.87 (t53) _____________163.0 (124) _ total rank 177

_ 84 ____ 1951-52 __ -2.03 (36) ______________177.9 (143) _ total rank 179

_ 85 ____ 1850-51 __ -4.23 (t115) ____________ 127.5 (t66) _ total rank 181

_ 86 ____ 1969-70 __ -5.10 (t141) _____________ 114.4 (44) _ total rank 185

_ 87 ____ 2000-01 __ -2.93 (t57) _____________ 165.6 (128) _ total rank 185

_ 88 ____ 1962-63 __ -5.70 (t154) ____________ 99.2 (32) _ total rank 186

_ 89 ____ 2014-15 __ -5.50 (t149) ____________ 104.1 (37) _ total rank 186

_ 90 ____ 1902-03 __ -4.23 (t115) ____________ 129.5 (73) _ total rank 188

_ 91 ____ 1975-76 __ -2.93 (t57) _____________ 170.7 (132) _ total rank 189

_ 92 ____ 1995-96 __ -3.93 (t100) ____________142.8 (t91) _ total rank 191

_ 93 ____ 1971-72 __ -2.50 (46) ______________ 179.8 (145) _ total rank 191

_ 94 ____ 1846-47 __ -4.67 (129) _____________ 125.5 (63) _ total rank 192

_ 95 ____ 1940-41 __ -3.67 (91) ______________ 149.4 (101) _ total rank 192

_ 96 ____ 1934-35 __ -5.10 (t141) _____________ 121.4 (57) _ total rank 198

_ 97 ____ 1924-25 __ -4.53 (t125) ____________ 129.8 (74) _ total rank 199

_ 98 ____ 1929-30 __ -3.93 (t100) ____________ 148.9 (99) _ total rank 199

_ 99 ____ 2007-08 __ -1.87 (32) ______________209.7 (t168) _ total rank 200

_100 ____ 1843-44 __ -3.60 (t89) ____________ 154.2 (112) _ total rank 201

_101 ____ 1844-45 __ -2.93 (t57) ____________ 178.4 (144) _ total rank 201

_102 ____ 1893-94 __ -4.43 (t122) ___________ 134.7 (81) _ total rank 203

_103 ____ 1966-67 __ -3.10 (t69) ______________172.5 (134) _ total rank 203

_104 ____ 1901-02 __ -4.60 (t127) ____________ 131.8 (77) _ total rank 204

_105 ____ 1946-47 __ -3.30 (t74) ______________171.9 (133) _ total rank 207

_106 ____ 1908-09 __ -2.60 (t50) _____________ 191.8 (157) _ total rank 207

_107 ____ 1848-49 __ -4.50 (t149) ____________ 124.2 (61) _ total rank 210

_108 ____ 1959-60 __ -2.20 (40) ______________ 211.0 (170) _ total rank 210

_109 ____ 1955-56 __ -3.30 (t74) ______________173.8 (137) _ total rank 211

_110 ____ 1871-72 __ -5.93 (160) _____________ 119.1 (52) _ total rank 212

_111 ____ 1983-84 __ -3.43 (t81) _____________ 167.0 (131) _ total rank 212

_112 ____ 1923-24 __ -3.00 (t63) _____________ 182.0 (150) _ total rank 213

_113 ____ 1945-46 __ -4.27 (t117) _____________ 147.2 (97) _ total rank 214 

_114 ____ 1862-63 __ -3.00 (t63) _____________ 182.8 (151) _ total rank 214

_115 ____ 1906-07 __ -5.97 (t161) ____________ 120.8 (54) _ total rank 215

_116 ____ 1914-15 __ -3.83 (t95) ______________158.0 (120) _ total rank 215

_117 ____ 1894-95 __ -5.07 (t139) ____________ 132.6 (t77) _ total rank 216

_118 ____ 1840-41 __ -4.97 (t134) ____________ 135.0 (83) _ total rank 217

_119 ____ 1888-89 __ -4.10 (109) _____________ 153.3 (109) _ total rank 218

_120 ____ 1913-14 __ -3.97 (t104) ____________ 157.9 (119) _ total rank 223

_121 ____ 2002-03 __ -3.93 (t100) ___________ 162.5 (123) _ total rank 223

_122 ____ 1890-91 __ -4.20 (t111) _____________ 155.0 (113) _ total rank 224

_123 ____ 1915-16 __ -3.57 (88) ______________ 174.5 (139) _ total rank 227

_124 ____ 1909-10 __ -4.37 (121) _____________ 152.9 (107) _ total rank 228

_125 ____ 1964-65 __ -3.47 (84) _____________ 181.9 (149) _ total rank 233

_126 ____ 1887-88 __ -5.97 (163) ____________ 128.9 (72) _ total rank 235

_127 ____ 1916-17 __ -5.43 (t147) ____________ 140.7 (t88) _ total rank 235

_128 ____ 1910-11 __ -4.33 (120) _____________ 155.8 (115) _ total rank 235

_129 ____ 1938-39 __ -3.07 (t67) _____________ 209.7 (t168) _ total rank 235

_130 ____ 1947-48 __ -5.00 (t136) ____________ 149.7 (103) _ total rank 239

_131 __1899-1900 __ -3.97 (t104) ____________ 173.6 (136) _ total rank 240

_132 ____ 1978-79 __ -5.23 (144) _____________ 148.0 (98) _ total rank 242

_133 ____ 1875-76 __ -3.07 (t67) ______________249.0 (177) _ total rank 244

_134 ____ 1853-54 __ -5.73 (156) _____________ 142.3 (90) _ total rank 246 

_135 ____ 1981-82 __ -4.53 (t125) ____________ 158.9 (121) _ total rank 246

_136 ____ 1925-26 __ -4.43 (t122) ____________ 163.1 (125) _ total rank 247

_137 ____ 2013-14 __ -5.33 (145) _____________ 151.6 (104) _ total rank 249

_138 ____ 1898-99 __ -5.07 (t139) ____________ 155.2 (114) _ total rank 253

_139 ____ 1976-77 __ -5.97 (t161) _____________ 145.4 (95) _ total rank 256

_140 ____ 1993-94 __ -5.53 (151) _____________ 152.4 (106) _ total rank 257

_141 ____ 1895-96 __ -4.20 (t111) ____________ 180.4 (146) _ total rank 257

_142 ____ 1904-05 __ -7.27 (175) _____________ 135.6 (84) _ total rank 259

_143 ____ 1900-01 __ -4.97 (t134) ____________ 164.1 (127) _ total rank 261

_144 ____ 1970-71 __ -4.20 (t111) _____________ 187.8 (156) _ total rank 267

_145 ____ 1868-69 __ -3.83 (t95) _____________ 220.5 (175) _ total rank 270

_146 ____ 1861-62 __ -4.13 (110) ______________ 201.2 (164) _ total rank 274

_147 ____ 1933-34 __ -6.63 (171) _____________ 152.0 (105) _ total rank 276

_148 ____ 1873-74 __ -3.97 (t104) ___________ 213.1 (172) _ total rank 276

_149 ____ 1869-70 __ -3.80 (94) ______________ 313.7 (183) _ total rank 277

_150 ____ 1878-79 __ -6.47 (167) _____________ 153.6 (111) _ total rank 278

_151 ____ 1880-81 __ -7.40 (176) ______________ 151.4 (103) _ total rank 279

_152 ____ 1907-08 __ -4.27 (t117) _____________ 198.6 (162) _ total rank 279

_153 ____ 1958-59 __ -5.57 (152) ____________ 165.8 (129) _ total rank 281

_154 ____ 1885-86 __ -5.90 (t158) _____________ 163.4 (126) _ total rank 284

_155 ____ 1977-78 __ -5.17 (143) ______________ 177.3 (141) _ total rank 284

_156 ____ 1942-43 __ -4.80 (132) _____________ 184.4 (154) _ total rank 286

_157 ____ 1845-46 __ -5.87 (157) ______________166.0 (130) _ total rank 287

_158 ____ 1859-60 __ -5.70 (155) _____________ 173.3 (135) _ total rank 290

_159 ____ 1919-20 __ -7.47 (177) ______________ 156.8 (t117) _ total rank 294

_160 ____ 1842-43 __ -4.87 (133) _____________ 200.0 (163) _ total rank 296

_161 ____ 1903-04 __ -8.13 (182) _____________ 156.8 (t117) _ total rank 299

_162 ____ 1860-61 __ -5.00 (t136) ____________ 203.6 (165) _ total rank 301

_163 ____ 1922-23 __ -5.00 (t136) ____________ 204.9 (166) _ total rank 302

_ from here to end, the rank for "most severe" is also shown at end of each entry __

_164 ____ 1935-36 __ -6.20 (164) _____________ 175.2 (140) _ total rank 304 __ 20

_165 ____ 1944-45 __ -5.40 (146) _____________ 193.3 (158) _ total rank 304 __ 19

_166 ____ 1911-12 __ -5.43 (t147) _____________ 194.0 (t159) _ total rank 306 __ 18

_167 ____ 1866-67 __ -4.60 (t127) ____________ 288.8 (181) _ total rank 308 ___ 17

_168 ____ 1870-71 __ -4.77 (131) ______________ 253.7 (179) _ total rank 310 ___ 16

_169 ____ 1883-84 __ -5.90 (t158) ____________ 194.0 (t159) _ total rank 317 ___ 15

_170 ____ 1867-68 __ -7.07 (t173) _____________ 181.4 (147) _ total rank 320 ___ 14

_171 ____ 1917-18 __ -7.77 (178) _______________ 181.5 (148) _ total rank 326 ___ 13

_172 ____ 1864-65 __ -5.67 (153) ______________ 213.6 (173) _ total rank 326 __ 12

_173 ____ 1892-93 __ -7.07 (t173) ______________ 186.5 (155) _ total rank 328 __ 11

_174 ____ 1855-56 __ -7.80 (179) ______________ 183.0 (152) _ total rank 331 ___ 10

_175 ____ 1884-85 __ -7.97 (180) ______________ 183.7 (153) _ total rank 333 ___ 09

_176 ____ 1886-87 __ -6.70 (172) ______________ 194.7 (161) _ total rank 333 ___ 08

_177 ____ 1876-77 __ -6.37 (166) _____________ 206.0 (167) _ total rank 333 ___ 07

_178 ____ 1856-57 __ -6.60 (170) _____________ 212.4 (171) _ total rank 341 ____ 06

_179 ____ 1882-83 __ -6.30 (165) _____________ 234.9 (176) _ total rank 341 ___ 05

_180 ____ 1854-55 __ -6.50 (168) _____________ 213.7 (174) _ total rank 342 ___ 04

_181 ____ 1851-52 __ -6.53 (169) ______________249.3 (178) _ total rank 347 ___ 03

_182 ____ 1874-75 __ -8.57 (183) ______________254.0 (180) _ total rank 363 ___ 02

_183 ____ 1872-73 __ -8.00 (181) _____________ 289.8 (182) __ total rank 363 ___ 01

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Today was New York City's 33rd consecutive warmer than normal day. That extended the ongoing record. The prior record of 31 days was set during December 10, 2006 through January 9, 2007. Today will also be New York City's 10th day this month with a low temperature of 40° or above. That would tied the January record set in 1932.

Tomorrow will be another mild day. However, colder air will begin to return to the region late tomorrow.

Winter 2022-2023 has now surpassed the record for latest first measurable snowfall in New York City. The old record of January 29th was set in 1973. It is likely that New York City will get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. That pattern will be highlighted by a brief Arctic blast.

Saturday could be the coldest day with the temperature rising only into the upper teens and lower 20s during the daytime after a morning low in the single digits to perhaps lower teens in New York City and possibly near zero outside the City. The onset of this cooler period might afford some opportunities for snowfall, but a snowy outcome remains far from certain. Afterward, moderation will likely commence during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +16.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.729 today.

On January 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.066 (RMM). The January 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.937 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.0° (9.3° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

 

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high end moderate to strong is good, very strong is okay, if you like big snowstorms, especially for the south shore of Long Island, which had two of its biggest storms ever in February 1983 and January 2016.
 

To strong is nice if you want to take a chance on one large event happening that will most likely melt within a week, quicker in urban areas, if it does happen. Sandwich that between temperatures way above normal for the duration of winter.

It’s personal choice but that’s far from my idea of winter. A srong El Niño you can have it, I’ll pass every time.


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29 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:


To strong is nice if you want to take a chance on one large event happening that will most likely melt within a week, quicker in urban areas, if it does happen. Sandwich that between temperatures way above normal for the duration of winter.

It’s personal choice but that’s far from my idea of winter. A srong El Niño you can have it, I’ll pass every time.


.

My preference would be high end moderate, something along the lines of 2002-03 or 2009-10

Obviously we need blocking and other things to line up too otherwise we would get something like 1994-95

 

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50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was New York City's 33rd consecutive warmer than normal day. That extended the ongoing record. The prior record of 31 days was set during December 10, 2006 through January 9, 2007. Today will also be New York City's 10th day this month with a low temperature of 40° or above. That would tied the January record set in 1932.

Tomorrow will be another mild day. However, colder air will begin to return to the region late tomorrow.

Winter 2022-2023 has now surpassed the record for latest first measurable snowfall in New York City. The old record of January 29th was set in 1973. It is likely that New York City will get through all of January without a measurable snowfall.

A cooler pattern will move in during the first week of February and last through the week. That pattern will be highlighted by a brief Arctic blast.

Saturday could be the coldest day with the temperature rising only into the upper teens and lower 20s during the daytime after a morning low in the single digits to perhaps lower teens in New York City and possibly near zero outside the City. The onset of this cooler period might afford some opportunities for snowfall, but a snowy outcome remains far from certain. Afterward, moderation will likely commence during the second week of the month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C. La Niña conditions are beginning to fade and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +16.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.729 today.

On January 27 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.066 (RMM). The January 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.937 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 43.0° (9.3° above normal). That will rank January 2023 as the second warmest January on record.

 

I like that your projection for the mean is rising ;-) I still think we will beat Jan 1932, and I really like the overnight mins to get us over the top.

What was the high low split today Don?

 

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2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Don's work inspired me to check out the comparable "futility" and "severity" top winters for Toronto which has a longer period of data (1840-41 to present for winters). This is the full list, I left the middle values in but gave them a small print size so if you're really interested in the middle of the table, magnify away ...

The ranks are based on combined rank order (from 01 to 183) for both DJF mean temp, and total winter snowfalls. Ranks are then added, and ties are broken in favor of most snowfall being more severe. Just to clarify, ranks for temperature run 01 mildest (2001-02 +1.30 C) to 183 coldest (1874-75 -8.57 C) and ranks for total snowfall run 01 least (45.9 cm or about 18" in 2011-12) to 183 most (313.7 cm or 123.5" in 1869-70, a lot of this fell in March 1870). Data are for downtown Toronto which has had a weather station at a parkland setting (on a university campus) that is not vastly different from Central Park in relation to the metropolis, except that there are fewer tree canopy issues as the campus has more isolated mature trees at some distance from one another. I have listed temperatures in my study both "raw" and adjusted for u.h.i., and could have adjusted these temperatures, but then the point of the table is to compare severity of actual winters for the people that experienced them at the time. The climate signal aspect of this would perhaps require a bit of an adjustment upwards for the older portions of the temperatures. Also the considerable urban heat island of Toronto probably has had a reducing effect on winter snowfall that I estimate might be 5 to 10 per cent, but most of the reason for generally low totals in recent decades is a shift in air mass frequency rather than urban heat island. Toronto snowfalls look heavy compared to NYC but it has to be kept in mind that considerable mixed falls involve rapid disappearance of parts of these totals, in a typical winter Toronto will see several periods of snow cover separated by intervals of bare ground. 

1931-32 was probably close to "most futile" for running values to end of January but then began to pick up plenty of snowfall in Feb and Mar, while remaining mild through Feb and ending up 5th mildest. The winter of 1841-42 was another quite futile outcome as shown, and the pulse of about 90 years is interesting (1842, 1932, 2023) although not meant to displace climate change (or underwater volcanoes ;) ) as cause of recent lack of severity. Unlike NYC, Toronto's snowfall trend in recent decades has just been a steady decline and there is no similar phenomenon to the recent all or nothing trend on the east coast. As you know, Toronto gets a lot of its snow from weather systems that sweep their warm sectors across NYC, although there are some storm tracks where both locations can score. On the other hand, Toronto's snowfall during periods of heavy snow at NYC is likely to be no better than low-average. For example, only small amounts of snow or zero snowfalls accompanied most of NYC's top ten storms. The more futile winters overlap basically because the storm track ran so far north that Toronto was also often in the milder sector. This past January will not threaten the lead of 1932 in that monthly ranking, in fact the most likely finish looks like 5th warmest. 

2022-23 is placed in the list on the basis of a relatively mild Feb (-2.3) and a relatively modest 30 cm of snow from Feb 1 to end of winter. There has already been about 60 cm of snow in several events. Some ranks in this table could change (by one up or down) if Toronto's outcome is different from this projection. The winter could still finish higher than 10th as shown in the futility list. Some time in April I will make a note of any changes. This table has also been saved into the Toronto-NYC data study in the climate change section. 

 

TORONTO (downtown) SEVERITY LIST 1840-41 to 2022-23 (est) 

(Top values least severe, or most "futile" and bottom of table shows most severe values)

Rank ____ Winter ___ Temp DJF (C) (rank) ___Total Winter Snow (cm) (rank)

_ 01 _____2011-12 __ +0.77 (02) _____________ 45.9 (01) ____ total rank 03

_ 02 ____ 2015-16 __ +0.57 (03) _____________ 59.7 (04) ___ total rank 07

_ 03 ____ 1952-53 __ -0.37 (07) _____________ 46.8 (03) ___ total rank 10

_ 04 ____ 2001-02 __ +1.30 (01) _____________ 71.4 (09) ___ total rank 10 

_ 05 ____ 1982-83 __ -0.50 (t08) ____________ 73.0 (10) ___ total rank 18

_ 06 ____ 1932-33 __ -1.10 (16) ______________ 65.3 (05) ___ total rank 21 

_ 07 ____ 2016-17 __ +0.03 (06) _____________ 77.0 (15) ___ total rank 21

_ 08 ____ 2005-06 __ -1.00 (15) _____________ 70.4 (08) ___ total rank 23

_ 09 ____ 1936-37 __ -1.17 (18) ______________ 70.3 (07) ___ total rank 25

_ 10 ____ 2022-23 est-0.60 (10) ___________est90.0 (24) ___ total rank 34

_ 11 __ 1999-2000 ___ -1.27 (19) _____________ 82.8 (19) ___ total rank 38

_ 12 ____ 2006-07 __ -1.90 (33) _____________ 67.9 (06) ___ total rank 39

_ 13 ____ 1994-95 __ -1.70 (t27) _____________ 75.4 (12) ___ total rank 39

_ 14 ____ 1881-82 __ -1.70 (t27) _____________ 77.2 (16) ___ total rank 43

_ 15 ____ 2009-10 __ -2.47 (t43) ____________ 46.2 (02) ___ total rank 45

_ 16 ____ 1918-19 __ -1.33 (21) _______________ 93.0 (26)__ total rank 47

_ 17 ____ 1905-06 __ -2.13 (t38) _____________ 76.6 (13) ___ total rank 51

_ 18 ____ 1877-78 __ -2.10 (37) ______________ 76.7 (14) ___ total rank 51

_ 19 ____ 1841-42 __ -2.37 (42) ______________ 75.0 (11) ___ total rank 53

_ 20 ____ 1997-98 __ +0.50 (04) ____________ 115.6 (t49) __ total rank 53

_ 21 ____ 1988-89 __ -1.97 (34) _______________87.2 (21) __ total rank 55

_ 22 ____ 2020-21 __ -1.47 (t22) _____________100.5 (33) _ total rank 55

_ 23 ____ 1889-90 __ -0.87 (14) _____________ 112.3 (43) __ total rank 57

_ 24 ____ 1990-91 __ -1.30 (20) _____________ 104.2 (38) __ total rank 58

_ 25 ____ 1991-92 __ -1.73 (29) _______________96.4 (30) __ total rank 59

_ 26 ____ 1987-88 __ -2.00 (35) ______________ 92.4 (25) __ total rank 60

_ 27 ____ 1920-21 __ -1.53 (26) ______________ 109.0 (40) __ total rank 66

_ 28 ____ 1974-75 __ -0.50 (t08) _____________ 121.9 (59) __ total rank 67

_ 29 ____ 1847-48 __ -2.53 (t47) ______________ 88.6 (22) __ total rank 69

_ 30 ____ 2012-13 __ -0.63 (t11) _____________ 124.0 (60) __ total rank 71

_ 31 ____ 1912-13 __ -2.13 (t38) _____________ 100.9 (34) __ total rank 72

_ 32 ____ 1957-58 __ -2.93 (t57) ________________ 79.6 (18) __ total rank 75

_ 33 ____ 2017-18 __ -2.90 (t55) ______________ 95.2 (28)__ total rank 83

_ 34 ____ 1948-49 __ -1.13 (17) ______________ 128.3 (71) __ total rank 88

_ 35 ____ 1943-44 __ -2.57 (49) _____________ 110.0 (41) _ total rank 90

_ 36 ____ 1928-29 __ -3.37 (78) ______________ 85.7 (20) __ total rank 98 

_ 37 ____ 1941-42 __ -3.33 (77) ______________ 89.6 (23) __ total rank 100

_ 38 ____ 1937-38 __ -3.53 (t85) _____________78.4 (17) __ total rank 102

_ 39 ____ 1927-28 __ -3.27 (73) ______________ 96.4 (29) __ total rank 102

_ 40 ____ 1968-69 __ -3.23 (72) ____________  97.0 (31) __ total rank 103

_ 41 ____ 2003-04 __ -2.97 (62) ____________ 110.1 (42) __ total rank 104

_ 42 ____ 2019-20 __ -0.63 (t11) _____________144.5 (94) __ total rank 105

_ 43 ____ 1931-32 __ +0.47 (05) ____________ 149.3 (100) _ total rank 105

_ 44 ____ 1953-54 __ -1.47 (t22) _____________135.7 (85) _ total rank 107

_ 45 ____ 1972-73 __ -2.60 (t50) ____________ 114.5 (45) _ total rank 108

_ 46 ____ 2018-19 __ -2.47 (t43) ____________ 128.0 (70) _ total rank 113

_ 47 ____ 1858-59 __ -3.40 (t79) ____________ 104.9 (39) _ total rank 118

_ 48 ____ 1979-80 __ -3.00 (t63) ____________ 121.1 (t55) _ total rank 118

_ 49 ____ 1954-55 __ -2.90 (t55) ____________ 125.9 (64) _ total rank 119

_ 50 ____ 1891-92 __ -3.53 (t85) ____________ 102.9 (35) _ total rank 120

_ 51 ____ 1950-51 __ -2.33 (41) ______________134.2 (80) _ total rank 121

_ 52 ____ 1986-87 __ -1.77 (30) ______________146.7 (96) _ total rank 126

_ 53 ____ 1956-57 __ -2.60 (t50) ____________ 132.6 (t77) _ total rank 127

_ 54 ____ 1921-22 __ -3.30 (t74) _____________ 121.1 (t55) _ total rank 129

_ 55 ____ 2021-22 __ -2.47 (t43) _____________136.1 (86) _ total rank 129

_ 56 ____ 1989-90 __ -3.10 (t69) ____________ 126.4 (65) _ total rank 134

_ 57 ____ 1896-97 __ -3.87 (99) _____________ 103.1 (36) _ total rank 135

_ 58 ____ 1998-99 __ -0.73 (13) _____________162.2 (122) _ total rank 135

_ 59 ____ 1849-50 __ -3.17 (71) _____________ 127.5 (t66) __ total rank 137

_ 60 ____ 1980-81 __ -4.20 (111) _____________ 94.3 (27) __ total rank 138

_ 61 ____ 1857-58 __ -3.53 (t85) ____________ 119.7 (53) __ total rank 138

_ 62 ____ 1965-66 __ -2.53 (t47) ____________143.7 (93) __ total rank 140

_ 63 ____ 1985-86 __ -3.83 (t95) ___________ 115.0 (47) __ total rank 142

_ 64 ____ 1879-80 __ -1.83 (31) _____________ 156.1 (116) __ total rank 147

_ 65 ____ 2004-05 __ -3.03 (66) ____________ 139.4 (87) _ total rank 153

_ 66 ____ 1967-68 __ -4.07 (108) ____________ 116.9 (51) _ total rank 159

_ 67 ____ 1863-64 __ -3.73 (93) _____________ 127.5 (t66) _ total rank 159

_ 68 ____ 1996-97 __ -1.47 (t22) _____________174.4 (138) _ total rank 160

_ 69 ____ 1852-53 __ -3.70 (92) _____________ 127.8 (69) _ total rank 161

_ 70 ____ 1984-85 __ -2.67 (t53) ____________ 153.0 (108) _ total rank 161

_ 71 ____ 2010-11 __ -3.93 (t100) ____________ 124.3 (62) _ total rank 162

_ 72 ____ 1973-74 __ -3.43 (t81) _____________ 134.9 (82) _ total rank 163

_ 73 ____ 2008-09 __ -3.60 (t89) ____________ 130.1 (75) _ total rank 164

_ 74 ____ 1961-62 __ -4.27 (t117) _____________115.5 (48) _ total rank 165

_ 75 ____ 1939-40 __ -4.00 (107) ____________ 121.5 (58) _ total rank 165

_ 76 ____ 1897-98 __ -3.40 (t79) _____________140.7 (t88) _ total rank 167

_ 77 ____ 1930-31 __ -2.93 (t57) _____________ 153.4 (110) _ total rank 167

_ 78 ____ 1949-50 __ -1.50 (25) ______________ 177.6 (142) _ total rank 167

_ 79 ____ 1926-27 __ -4.43 (t122) ____________ 115.6 (t49) _ total rank 171

_ 80 ____ 1960-61 __ -3.83 (t95) _____________ 130.3 (76) _ total rank 171

_ 81 ____ 1963-64 __ -3.43 (83) _____________ 142.8 (t91) _ total rank 174

_ 82 ____ 1865-66 __ -4.73 (130) ____________ 114.8 (46) _ total rank 176

_ 83 ____ 1992-93 __ -2.87 (t53) _____________163.0 (124) _ total rank 177

_ 84 ____ 1951-52 __ -2.03 (36) ______________177.9 (143) _ total rank 179

_ 85 ____ 1850-51 __ -4.23 (t115) ____________ 127.5 (t66) _ total rank 181

_ 86 ____ 1969-70 __ -5.10 (t141) _____________ 114.4 (44) _ total rank 185

_ 87 ____ 2000-01 __ -2.93 (t57) _____________ 165.6 (128) _ total rank 185

_ 88 ____ 1962-63 __ -5.70 (t154) ____________ 99.2 (32) _ total rank 186

_ 89 ____ 2014-15 __ -5.50 (t149) ____________ 104.1 (37) _ total rank 186

_ 90 ____ 1902-03 __ -4.23 (t115) ____________ 129.5 (73) _ total rank 188

_ 91 ____ 1975-76 __ -2.93 (t57) _____________ 170.7 (132) _ total rank 189

_ 92 ____ 1995-96 __ -3.93 (t100) ____________142.8 (t91) _ total rank 191

_ 93 ____ 1971-72 __ -2.50 (46) ______________ 179.8 (145) _ total rank 191

_ 94 ____ 1846-47 __ -4.67 (129) _____________ 125.5 (63) _ total rank 192

_ 95 ____ 1940-41 __ -3.67 (91) ______________ 149.4 (101) _ total rank 192

_ 96 ____ 1934-35 __ -5.10 (t141) _____________ 121.4 (57) _ total rank 198

_ 97 ____ 1924-25 __ -4.53 (t125) ____________ 129.8 (74) _ total rank 199

_ 98 ____ 1929-30 __ -3.93 (t100) ____________ 148.9 (99) _ total rank 199

_ 99 ____ 2007-08 __ -1.87 (32) ______________209.7 (t168) _ total rank 200

_100 ____ 1843-44 __ -3.60 (t89) ____________ 154.2 (112) _ total rank 201

_101 ____ 1844-45 __ -2.93 (t57) ____________ 178.4 (144) _ total rank 201

_102 ____ 1893-94 __ -4.43 (t122) ___________ 134.7 (81) _ total rank 203

_103 ____ 1966-67 __ -3.10 (t69) ______________172.5 (134) _ total rank 203

_104 ____ 1901-02 __ -4.60 (t127) ____________ 131.8 (77) _ total rank 204

_105 ____ 1946-47 __ -3.30 (t74) ______________171.9 (133) _ total rank 207

_106 ____ 1908-09 __ -2.60 (t50) _____________ 191.8 (157) _ total rank 207

_107 ____ 1848-49 __ -4.50 (t149) ____________ 124.2 (61) _ total rank 210

_108 ____ 1959-60 __ -2.20 (40) ______________ 211.0 (170) _ total rank 210

_109 ____ 1955-56 __ -3.30 (t74) ______________173.8 (137) _ total rank 211

_110 ____ 1871-72 __ -5.93 (160) _____________ 119.1 (52) _ total rank 212

_111 ____ 1983-84 __ -3.43 (t81) _____________ 167.0 (131) _ total rank 212

_112 ____ 1923-24 __ -3.00 (t63) _____________ 182.0 (150) _ total rank 213

_113 ____ 1945-46 __ -4.27 (t117) _____________ 147.2 (97) _ total rank 214 

_114 ____ 1862-63 __ -3.00 (t63) _____________ 182.8 (151) _ total rank 214

_115 ____ 1906-07 __ -5.97 (t161) ____________ 120.8 (54) _ total rank 215

_116 ____ 1914-15 __ -3.83 (t95) ______________158.0 (120) _ total rank 215

_117 ____ 1894-95 __ -5.07 (t139) ____________ 132.6 (t77) _ total rank 216

_118 ____ 1840-41 __ -4.97 (t134) ____________ 135.0 (83) _ total rank 217

_119 ____ 1888-89 __ -4.10 (109) _____________ 153.3 (109) _ total rank 218

_120 ____ 1913-14 __ -3.97 (t104) ____________ 157.9 (119) _ total rank 223

_121 ____ 2002-03 __ -3.93 (t100) ___________ 162.5 (123) _ total rank 223

_122 ____ 1890-91 __ -4.20 (t111) _____________ 155.0 (113) _ total rank 224

_123 ____ 1915-16 __ -3.57 (88) ______________ 174.5 (139) _ total rank 227

_124 ____ 1909-10 __ -4.37 (121) _____________ 152.9 (107) _ total rank 228

_125 ____ 1964-65 __ -3.47 (84) _____________ 181.9 (149) _ total rank 233

_126 ____ 1887-88 __ -5.97 (163) ____________ 128.9 (72) _ total rank 235

_127 ____ 1916-17 __ -5.43 (t147) ____________ 140.7 (t88) _ total rank 235

_128 ____ 1910-11 __ -4.33 (120) _____________ 155.8 (115) _ total rank 235

_129 ____ 1938-39 __ -3.07 (t67) _____________ 209.7 (t168) _ total rank 235

_130 ____ 1947-48 __ -5.00 (t136) ____________ 149.7 (103) _ total rank 239

_131 __1899-1900 __ -3.97 (t104) ____________ 173.6 (136) _ total rank 240

_132 ____ 1978-79 __ -5.23 (144) _____________ 148.0 (98) _ total rank 242

_133 ____ 1875-76 __ -3.07 (t67) ______________249.0 (177) _ total rank 244

_134 ____ 1853-54 __ -5.73 (156) _____________ 142.3 (90) _ total rank 246 

_135 ____ 1981-82 __ -4.53 (t125) ____________ 158.9 (121) _ total rank 246

_136 ____ 1925-26 __ -4.43 (t122) ____________ 163.1 (125) _ total rank 247

_137 ____ 2013-14 __ -5.33 (145) _____________ 151.6 (104) _ total rank 249

_138 ____ 1898-99 __ -5.07 (t139) ____________ 155.2 (114) _ total rank 253

_139 ____ 1976-77 __ -5.97 (t161) _____________ 145.4 (95) _ total rank 256

_140 ____ 1993-94 __ -5.53 (151) _____________ 152.4 (106) _ total rank 257

_141 ____ 1895-96 __ -4.20 (t111) ____________ 180.4 (146) _ total rank 257

_142 ____ 1904-05 __ -7.27 (175) _____________ 135.6 (84) _ total rank 259

_143 ____ 1900-01 __ -4.97 (t134) ____________ 164.1 (127) _ total rank 261

_144 ____ 1970-71 __ -4.20 (t111) _____________ 187.8 (156) _ total rank 267

_145 ____ 1868-69 __ -3.83 (t95) _____________ 220.5 (175) _ total rank 270

_146 ____ 1861-62 __ -4.13 (110) ______________ 201.2 (164) _ total rank 274

_147 ____ 1933-34 __ -6.63 (171) _____________ 152.0 (105) _ total rank 276

_148 ____ 1873-74 __ -3.97 (t104) ___________ 213.1 (172) _ total rank 276

_149 ____ 1869-70 __ -3.80 (94) ______________ 313.7 (183) _ total rank 277

_150 ____ 1878-79 __ -6.47 (167) _____________ 153.6 (111) _ total rank 278

_151 ____ 1880-81 __ -7.40 (176) ______________ 151.4 (103) _ total rank 279

_152 ____ 1907-08 __ -4.27 (t117) _____________ 198.6 (162) _ total rank 279

_153 ____ 1958-59 __ -5.57 (152) ____________ 165.8 (129) _ total rank 281

_154 ____ 1885-86 __ -5.90 (t158) _____________ 163.4 (126) _ total rank 284

_155 ____ 1977-78 __ -5.17 (143) ______________ 177.3 (141) _ total rank 284

_156 ____ 1942-43 __ -4.80 (132) _____________ 184.4 (154) _ total rank 286

_157 ____ 1845-46 __ -5.87 (157) ______________166.0 (130) _ total rank 287

_158 ____ 1859-60 __ -5.70 (155) _____________ 173.3 (135) _ total rank 290

_159 ____ 1919-20 __ -7.47 (177) ______________ 156.8 (t117) _ total rank 294

_160 ____ 1842-43 __ -4.87 (133) _____________ 200.0 (163) _ total rank 296

_161 ____ 1903-04 __ -8.13 (182) _____________ 156.8 (t117) _ total rank 299

_162 ____ 1860-61 __ -5.00 (t136) ____________ 203.6 (165) _ total rank 301

_163 ____ 1922-23 __ -5.00 (t136) ____________ 204.9 (166) _ total rank 302

_ from here to end, the rank for "most severe" is also shown at end of each entry __

_164 ____ 1935-36 __ -6.20 (164) _____________ 175.2 (140) _ total rank 304 __ 20

_165 ____ 1944-45 __ -5.40 (146) _____________ 193.3 (158) _ total rank 304 __ 19

_166 ____ 1911-12 __ -5.43 (t147) _____________ 194.0 (t159) _ total rank 306 __ 18

_167 ____ 1866-67 __ -4.60 (t127) ____________ 288.8 (181) _ total rank 308 ___ 17

_168 ____ 1870-71 __ -4.77 (131) ______________ 253.7 (179) _ total rank 310 ___ 16

_169 ____ 1883-84 __ -5.90 (t158) ____________ 194.0 (t159) _ total rank 317 ___ 15

_170 ____ 1867-68 __ -7.07 (t173) _____________ 181.4 (147) _ total rank 320 ___ 14

_171 ____ 1917-18 __ -7.77 (178) _______________ 181.5 (148) _ total rank 326 ___ 13

_172 ____ 1864-65 __ -5.67 (153) ______________ 213.6 (173) _ total rank 326 __ 12

_173 ____ 1892-93 __ -7.07 (t173) ______________ 186.5 (155) _ total rank 328 __ 11

_174 ____ 1855-56 __ -7.80 (179) ______________ 183.0 (152) _ total rank 331 ___ 10

_175 ____ 1884-85 __ -7.97 (180) ______________ 183.7 (153) _ total rank 333 ___ 09

_176 ____ 1886-87 __ -6.70 (172) ______________ 194.7 (161) _ total rank 333 ___ 08

_177 ____ 1876-77 __ -6.37 (166) _____________ 206.0 (167) _ total rank 333 ___ 07

_178 ____ 1856-57 __ -6.60 (170) _____________ 212.4 (171) _ total rank 341 ____ 06

_179 ____ 1882-83 __ -6.30 (165) _____________ 234.9 (176) _ total rank 341 ___ 05

_180 ____ 1854-55 __ -6.50 (168) _____________ 213.7 (174) _ total rank 342 ___ 04

_181 ____ 1851-52 __ -6.53 (169) ______________249.3 (178) _ total rank 347 ___ 03

_182 ____ 1874-75 __ -8.57 (183) ______________254.0 (180) _ total rank 363 ___ 02

_183 ____ 1872-73 __ -8.00 (181) _____________ 289.8 (182) __ total rank 363 ___ 01

Roger there has to be some source for winter temps and snowfall prior to 1870, even going back to the 1700s.  I think it would be fascinating to find out what our coldest actual temperatures were and what the actual highest snowfall was.

What I've been able to piece together is the lowest temp ever record in the city was -16 (so very close to the February 1934 record) which was back in January somewhere in the 1780s.  Cannons were dragged across the Hudson river and stores were set up in the middle of the river.

Both NYC and PHL had winters with 100" of snowfall a few times during the 1800s, the latest was just before official recordkeeping began in the 1860s, but it also happened before that in the 1830s and 1840s and earlier.

 

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

All our major stations will finish January at or near the warmest on record. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 43.9 3
2 1932 42.0 0
3 1990 40.4 0
4 1950 40.3 0
5 1998 40.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 43.2 3
- 1932 43.2 0
2 1950 41.8 2
3 1990 41.4 0
4 2006 40.9 0
5 1913 40.8 0


 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 43.1 3
2 2006 41.5 0
3 1950 41.2 0
4 1990 41.1 0
5 2002 40.4 0



 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 41.8 3
2 1950 40.5 0
3 1998 39.6 0
4 1990 39.4 0
5 2006 39.1 0
6 2002 38.9 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 39.9 3
2 1990 36.9 1
3 2006 36.5 0
4 2017 35.6 1
- 2002 35.6 0
5 1998 35.4 11


 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 39.9 3
2 2017 36.9 0
3 1950 36.8 0
4 2020 36.7 0
- 1998 36.7 0
- 1990 36.7 0
5 2006 36.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2023 41.3 3
2 1998 39.1 0
3 1995 38.0 0
4 1990 37.9 0
5 2002 37.7 0

Tied with 1932!  Let's go for that record! ;-)

 

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

JFK ties for the latest first measurable snowfall.

First/Last Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Difference
1972 03-14 (1972) 1.9 01-29 (1973) 0.8 320
1965 04-02 (1965) 1.4 01-23 (1966) 1.8 295
2006 04-05 (2006) 1.0 01-19 (2007) 0.4 288
1994 03-18 (1994) 2.2 01-11 (1995) 0.1 298
2001 03-26 (2001) 1.7 01-07 (2002) 0.4 286

Nice, was 1972-73 also JFK's lowest recorded snowfall for the season, Chris?  How much did they get?

I take it 2019-20 had snow after NYC at JFK since it isn't in the snowless list?

Do you have the record for most days in a row above normal and least 32 or below lows too? Is JFK on pace for those records too?  Thanks!

 

 

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6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

I remember riding shotgun as a young boy as my father plowed snow that winter. We did the office building with the big 9 on it off rt1 by turnpike in Woodbridge. Many hours were spent there that winter. 
 

What has been your favorite winter since 2000? 13/14 and 14/15 are probably my favorites 

02-03 rocked and was our last complete winter.

 

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6 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

I believe that was the Wilentz building, which is close to royalty in NJ....I'd take 2013-14, lots of nice events, but no blockbusters; 2015 had many piddly events of 3-5 inches and a lot of rain mixes. 2011 loses out because it was over in Jan, but what a time it was.....two big blockbusters. 

you're all forgetting about 2002-03 which was superior to all the others for longevity and largest snowfall

also it was 2013-14 that had the rain mixes, 2014-15 was MUCH colder.

 

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11 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Records

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (2002)
NYC: 69 (2002)
LGA: 68 (2002)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1977)
NYC: 0 (1873)
LGA: 7 (2005)

 

Historical :

1780 - On the coldest morning of a severe winter the mercury dipped to 16 degrees below zero at New York City, and reached 20 degrees below zero at Hartford CT. New York Harbor was frozen for five weeks, allowing a heavy cannon to be taken across the ice to fortify the British on Staten Island. (The Weather Channel)

Thats the one I remembered from the 1780s!  Wow, that was today?!  I mentioned the cannon thing in a previous post.  Please see if you can find the 100" snowfall seasons that happened in NYC and PHL back in the 1860s, 1840s, 1830s, and prior.  I think either 1836 or 1838 (or both) were a couple of those years as well as 1867 and earlier in the 1800s, maybe 1804 or 1808 or both.

Also ironic to see 2002 on here as this year reminds me of that one.  Were those temps the highest we attained that entire month too?

 

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11 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last 3 days of January are averaging      44degs.(38/51)or +11.

Month to date is     43.2[+9.5}.          January should end at      43.3[+9.6].    Second Place or Better.

Reached 51 here yesterday at 3pm.

Today:    48-52, wind sw.,  m. cloudy, 44 tomorrow AM.

35 Days of preparation to get a few BN days:

1674972000-FShBaPy12gI.png

43*(67%RH) here at 6am.      46* at 9am.      47* at 10am.       48* at Noon.      down to 46* at 1pm.     up to 52* at 3pm.

With these projections I think we break the Jan 1932 records for highest avg Jan temp and also fewest number of 32 or lower lows and every day of the month will be above average.

 

 

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