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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gradient has been looking likely in the means with several systems running the same zones.

636AB38E-7B36-4728-AA28-D22E220F0640.thumb.png.9128912bcb146dc52fa52d6d3fb33f5e.png

 

Brian will know best, and probably Jeff, but this map looks like an 07-08 gradient.  Brian's area had almost 150".  We came up in December and again January to look at and then buy our first house in Webster, and we were amazed at the size of the snow piles.  I was so stoked thinking this would happen every year! lol.  But I know that year regularly served up disappointments south of the NH border.  

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The 00Z EPS was an interesting trend.  

It's a tough sell though... it's tough to be abused for months and then drop that sentiment and be purely analytic/objective about regional chances ( got it ), but the EPS mean has significant number of members with a sub-index scale nuke.  Those are tough to ferret out of any D7 range, let alone during a supposed pattern change period.

Re the latter...the pattern is still destined to change, but to what?   The bamboozle in this is that it doesn't appear to be changing toward one that is ideally useful to winter enthusiasts over the eastern continent.  But as other's have rightfully pointed out...we can still do okay with cold loads into the Can shield, and a ridging depicted SE ... It's a matter of favoring storm typology - which, no surprise, a 00z EPS and 12z Euro *(yesterday) and 00z "ICAN'T" runs...sarcasm aside, might fit that kind of tapestry. 

I'm not willing to punt the 23rd, ... I only admit to it's low probability for positive return, and am willing to wait a bit. 

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51 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Brian will know best, and probably Jeff, but this map looks like an 07-08 gradient.  Brian's area had almost 150".  We came up in December and again January to look at and then buy our first house in Webster, and we were amazed at the size of the snow piles.  I was so stoked thinking this would happen every year! lol.  But I know that year regularly served up disappointments south of the NH border.  

The one late week fits the bill as a SWFE with that gradient look moving thru the upper ohio valley, The next two on the 06z GFS look more Miller B'ish coming out of the lower tennessee valley and off the New England coast under SNE into the GOM.

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14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The one late week fits the bill as a SWFE with that gradient look moving thru the upper ohio valley, The next two on the 06z GFS look more Miller B'ish coming out of the lower tennessee valley and off the New England coast under SNE into the GOM.

If there's any good news at all, is that the atmospheric river so to speak should stop after the storm coming ashore in the next day for the west coast. So, what we do see coming in next week will be coming out of Canada as opposed to the Pacific. At least that's a bit of a better setup than it had been.

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27 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

If there's any good news at all, is that the atmospheric river so to speak should stop after the storm coming ashore in the next day for the west coast. So, what we do see coming in next week will be coming out of Canada as opposed to the Pacific. At least that's a bit of a better setup than it had been.

Shutting off the mammoth mountain snow parade is not a bad thing for us . It’s peak climo so this would be the time (next 4 weeks) to capitalize if we can keep things active , and if a good look actually materializes for the coastal plain then ..great 

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41 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

If there's any good news at all, is that the atmospheric river so to speak should stop after the storm coming ashore in the next day for the west coast. So, what we do see coming in next week will be coming out of Canada as opposed to the Pacific. At least that's a bit of a better setup than it had been.

Your chances of seeing snow with Canada void of cold air and a trough over the pacific west is extremely low odds here in the east as we've seen, It does look better as we roll forward.

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Brian will know best, and probably Jeff, but this map looks like an 07-08 gradient.  Brian's area had almost 150".  We came up in December and again January to look at and then buy our first house in Webster, and we were amazed at the size of the snow piles.  I was so stoked thinking this would happen every year! lol.  But I know that year regularly served up disappointments south of the NH border.  

This was peak depth 3/1/08. 
image.jpeg

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

The one late week fits the bill as a SWFE with that gradient look moving thru the upper ohio valley, The next two on the 06z GFS look more Miller B'ish coming out of the lower tennessee valley and off the New England coast under SNE into the GOM.

I'm seeing it the opposite. This week is an outside week. First seen with the coastal, and then Thurs./Fri with weak confluence in the Northeast and SE Canada. MJO phase 1/8 is flexing, despite the poor long wave pattern. But this is transient.

Pattern is back open to UL ridging all along the east coast by next weekend.

 

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm seeing it the opposite. This week is an outside week. First seen with the coastal, and then Thurs./Fri with weak confluence in the Northeast and SE Canada. MJO phase 1/8 is flexing, despite the poor long wave pattern. But this is transient.

Pattern is back open to UL ridging all along the east coast by next weekend.

 

Correct

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22 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm seeing it the opposite. This week is an outside week. First seen with the coastal, and then Thurs./Fri with weak confluence in the Northeast and SE Canada. MJO phase 1/8 is flexing, despite the poor long wave pattern. But this is transient.

Pattern is back open to UL ridging all along the east coast by next weekend.

 

You have been spot on all winter, but hope you are wrong.

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29 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm seeing it the opposite. This week is an outside week. First seen with the coastal, and then Thurs./Fri with weak confluence in the Northeast and SE Canada. MJO phase 1/8 is flexing, despite the poor long wave pattern. But this is transient.

Pattern is back open to UL ridging all along the east coast by next weekend.

 

I'm speaking in terms for NNE, It will be fine up here, You on the other hand south, Yeah.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs a tick colder at 12z for Thursday nite / Friday am . Not bad 

Verbatim that's like 36 hrs of snow in the Berks Greens and Monads. There's def upside risk in long duration with this. Guidance continuing to show the possibility.

Mostly of the light variety but nice in any season.

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