WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is lovely Pope goose pooping all over your joy Ant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, wx2fish said: It's almost useless at this range but the nam is pretty cold at 84hr. RGEM is pretty cold too. Not buying these colder solutions until we’re way closer though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: C'mon @MJO812 , you don't even need an imagination for this one. I just realized this looking through the posts above, but the 12z Euro.... This doesn't look familiar??? Right, however why can't we get a weak follow up wave to provide some snow? In December the bomb was so intense the follow up wave had no chance and was squashed. If this cutter is weaker than we can score a follow up light to moderate event. Of course this is looking down the road without players on the field, however I do not think it's a shut out look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I am interested in the end of week storm for this area. Up front thumpa’ we might do good with that one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Pope goose pooping all over your joy Ant. We can score with that look. Cutters are a risk but not a shut out look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is pretty cold too. Not buying these colder solutions until we’re way closer though. Rather see that than it going in the opposite direction of the globals. At least the shades are halfway open smh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is pretty cold too. Not buying these colder solutions until we’re way closer though. I do like the overall ensembled H5 look though. Confluence over the Crown of Maine at least supports the cold surface temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Right, however why can't we get a weak follow up wave to provide some snow? In December the bomb was so intense the follow up wave had no chance and was squashed. If this cutter is weaker than we can score a follow up light to moderate event. Of course this is looking down the road without players on the field, however I do not think it's a shut out look. The look is pretty darned good beyond D9…the Jan 23-24 system is definitely precarious which is what precedes that cold blast…maybe that’s what he was cryptically talking about. But it’s hard to say the EPS doesn’t look good for us beyond that. We all don’t really care what it looks like though if there’s no snow, so a lot of this is mostly moot in here. We’re actually tracking potential snow events prior to that anyway. They look best for NNE but can’t rule them out down here yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: We can score with that look. Cutters are a risk but not a shut out look. Oh I’ve been saying that for a while. I’m not saying pope is right. It’s 10 days off. The look will change and morph. No way to know a whole lot yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I do like the overall ensembled H5 look though. Confluence over the Crown of Maine at least supports the cold surface temps. I’d be tossing them far and wide for S ME into S/C NH…down here I feel like we don’t get those lower level temps established at all…maybe some drain during the event with a little help of wetbulbing. But the subtle colder trend is encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The look is pretty darned good beyond D9…the Jan 23-24 system is definitely precarious which is what precedes that cold blast…maybe that’s what he was cryptically talking about. But it’s hard to say the EPS doesn’t look good for us beyond that. We all don’t really care what it looks like though if there’s no snow, so a lot of this is mostly moot in here. We’re actually tracking potential snow events prior to that anyway. They look best for NNE but can’t rule them out down here yet. I don’t think he was talking about that Will. He was pretty adamant that the look is not good for us easterners….says it’s just like Xmas time all over again. So he’s still on the no change train…he’s gonna ride it for all it’s worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’d be tossing them far and wide for S ME into S/C NH…down here I feel like we don’t get those lower level temps established at all…maybe some drain during the event with a little help of wetbulbing. But the subtle colder trend is encouraging. Timing could be better. Don't need precip barreling in during the warmest part of the day Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Lack the elevation but I like my latitude and longitude for the Thurs/Fri storm. Could be a paster over to sleet and freezing drizzle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Lack the elevation but I like my latitude and longitude for the Thurs/Fri storm. Could be a paster over to sleet and freezing drizzle. More likely is ice over to snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I don’t think he was talking about that Will. He was pretty adamant that the look is not good for us easterners….says it’s just like Xmas time all over again. So he’s still on the no change train…he’s gonna ride it for all it’s worth. I dunno, sounded kind of wishy-washy. The pattern broke down pretty quick after Xmas, but this time the pattern is getting established after Jan 23-24 so it’s not an analogous comparison to that evolution. The pattern could always shit the bed I suppose. That’s def a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 For once, I like my spot relative to most of SNE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For once, I like my spot relative to most of SNE. We’ve heard you say this many times… lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: We’ve heard you say this many times… lol. He’s probably right in an absolute sense, but I still think the gradient ends up north of him . Antecedent is horse shit like it’s been all winter, and these types of systems always tickle north in the final 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: We’ve heard you say this many times… lol. Can’t disagree with him though on either Thursdays system or the pattern beyond. Latitude is going to be a premium variable with the SE ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno, sounded kind of wishy-washy. The pattern broke down pretty quick after Xmas, but this time the pattern is getting established after Jan 23-24 so it’s not an analogous comparison to that evolution. The pattern could always shit the bed I suppose. That’s def a possibility. My point was just that he thinks it’s not a good look for us. I agree 100% it’s not analogous, but he was saying it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: He’s probably right in an absolute sense, but I still think the gradient ends up north of him . Antecedent is horse shit like it’s been all winter, and these types of systems always tickle north in the final 48 There’s a cold press this time with nosing high. Not retreating . Trend should be south with more confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno, sounded kind of wishy-washy. The pattern broke down pretty quick after Xmas, but this time the pattern is getting established after Jan 23-24 so it’s not an analogous comparison to that evolution. The pattern could always shit the bed I suppose. That’s def a possibility. it feels sort of like a step down. The snowpack, though only 2-4 inches, is persisting. Step downs can be good as opposed to violent fast swings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: My point was just that he thinks it’s not a good look for us. I agree 100% it’s not analogous, but he was saying it is. What I’m saying is I don’t think it was clear whether he meant the pattern beyond that. If he’s referring to the Jan 23-24 system and the cold shot behind it, it’s possible that ends up mirroring the Dec 23-25 period. But beyond Jan 24, things look a lot different than that. Pattern broke down to torchy shortly after Xmas, and this time it appears we’re getting a significantly colder look for late January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Can’t disagree with him though on either Thursdays system or the pattern beyond. Latitude is going to be a premium variable with the SE ridge. I don’t disagree, but I’ve heard that a lot from him the last couple yrs. Not saying he’s not right. Just saying I’ve heard that before. Hopefully he cashes in. I’m at 4.3”, we all need to grab a lil something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For once, I like my spot relative to most of SNE. now lets see if we can juice it up to a 6+ swfe instead of a 4+ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What I’m saying is I don’t think it was clear whether he meant the pattern beyond that. If he’s referring to the Jan 23-24 system and the cold shot behind it, it’s possible that ends up mirroring the Dec 23-25 period. But beyond Jan 24, things look a lot different than that. Pattern broke down to torchy shortly after Xmas, and this time it appears we’re getting a significantly colder look for late January. I went back and looked, and he’s showing a cutter on 1/26, saying that looks like Xmas. So that’s what I was referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What I’m saying is I don’t think it was clear whether he meant the pattern beyond that. If he’s referring to the Jan 23-24 system and the cold shot behind it, it’s possible that ends up mirroring the Dec 23-25 period. But beyond Jan 24, things look a lot different than that. Pattern broke down to torchy shortly after Xmas, and this time it appears we’re getting a significantly colder look for late January. the main difference IMO is that the TPV will be on our side of the globe this go around, potentially in a great spot in E Canada. IIRC, it was in Europe / Asia for late December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: the main difference IMO is that the TPV will be on our side of the globe this go around, potentially in a great spot in E Canada. IIRC, it was in Europe / Asia for late December Wasn’t it in western Canada then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wasn’t it in western Canada then? There were like sub-PV lobes in western Canada after Xmas. The bulk of the cold in the NHEM was not on our side of the pole after that Xmas arctic shot (were talking like last week of Dec through mid-Jan currently). That is going to change. So now, at least if/when we get a cutter in the newer pattern, there’s some legit cold behind it to try and reload again for the next threat. The past few weeks, we’d get a cutter and the temp behind it would still be pretty mild. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 This look around day 9/10 reminds me a lot of the Arctic blast in December and the prelude to the Buffalo bomb. Not a good look for us easterners. Yes, there is likely a cutter around day 9, beyond that is when the pattern looked really good. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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