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December 2022


dmillz25
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53 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

1982/1983 would be a backender too if memory serves.  Christmas ‘82 was the opposite of Christmas ‘83.  The first really warm Christmas Eve in my memory - followed by minimal snow, until the Blizzard of ‘83.

Christmas maybe, but there was a decent snowstorm around the 10th of December 1982 so it wasn't a shutout.  I think it was one of those memorable Patriots-Jets games played in that storm, but I might be mixing my football folklore.

There was also a big snowstorm around the second week of January 1983 (15th?) that went over to rain for a while along the coast, but left accumulations almost everywhere.  Pretty big difference from LI south shore (where mostly rain) to north shore in that one.  Even more snow on the Connecticut coast and a lot inland where there was no rain.

Plus 5 or 6" that ended as some rain or drizzle about a week before PD1.

Scary how I remember stuff when I was young better than stuff from last winter.

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What was the year that we got 5 big storms all in March?

I remember I was living in Mahwah at the time and one of my trees in the front yard self destructed from the weight of the wet snow.

Seemed like we were getting a storm every week. Was thinking it was 2017 but maybe it was 2018?

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What was the year that we got 5 big storms all in March?

I remember I was living in Mahwah at the time and one of my trees in the front yard self destructed from the weight of the wet snow.

Seemed like we were getting a storm every week. Was thinking it was 2017 but maybe it was 2018?

2018

1st-3rd — 39” in upstate NY and a rather notable wind event 

6th-7th — 20+” in NNJ (I only got 7” and I was only about maybe 60 miles north of the death band)

12th-14th Boston special 

18th? NYC special and ~18” on LI

5th was either later month or April 1st/2nd

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

What was the year that we got 5 big storms all in March?

I remember I was living in Mahwah at the time and one of my trees in the front yard self destructed from the weight of the wet snow.

Seemed like we were getting a storm every week. Was thinking it was 2017 but maybe it was 2018?

2018

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21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It is. At least for now, that’s the “new normal” for large-scale Arctic blasts.

I'm sure a lot of us remember the old arctic fronts with the wind blowing due N down the hudson valley & funneling the coldest air into the metro area.  Seems like it has been a while since we've had that happen.

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5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

What do you call it when you feel alive and refreshed in the cold and depressed and unhappy in unseasonable warmth?

Should probably see a doctor about that :arrowhead:.

And my wife is the exact diametric opposite of me, so naturally we’re perfect for each other. Though she does enjoy the winter hiking we do, I have to keep her bundled up like a freshly hatched chicken. 

SAD is a legitimate and serious disorder; in fact. when summers are cloudy and rainy, as I think 89 was, people can get a summer version of it. Far more people get depressed over cold and snow than are happy about it.

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5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Cold and snowy Decembers will happen again. I mean we had a big snowstorm in 2020. It's just cyclical patterns. We are in a crappy period like the late 90s and pretty much every year from 1970 through 1992 save a couple years like 77/78.

You may have had big storm in Dec 2020; we had a few inches. But that would be fine right about now....

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

What was the year that we got 5 big storms all in March?

I remember I was living in Mahwah at the time and one of my trees in the front yard self destructed from the weight of the wet snow.

Seemed like we were getting a storm every week. Was thinking it was 2017 but maybe it was 2018?

2018, but most of those storms underperformed in my area. Just not a snow magnet here in N Middlesex County. 2016 and Dec 2010 were jackpots, oh and Jan 2011.  The rest are all just also rans....( not counting prior decades ).

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A powerful storm will continue to bring heavy rain, high winds, and coastal flooding to the region tonight and tomorrow. A storm total 1"-2" of precipitation appears likely with locally higher amounts. A few spots could reach 3" or precipitation. A light snow accumulation remains possible as the storm moves away from the region, largely in interior sections. A flash freeze remains possible tomorrow.

In the wake of the storm, the season's coldest air so far will pour into the region. Temperatures will tumble into the teens in  in New York City by evening and low teens overnight. Some locations outside the City could see single-digit lows. Nevertheless, the core of the Arctic air mass will bypass the New York City region. Sunday will be fair and continued very cold before slow moderation commences early next week.

The AO fell reached -4.000 on December 10th. Since 1950, there were 11 cases that saw the AO reach -4.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 9.0" (Median: 9.1"). 64% of such cases saw 6" or more of snowfall in December while 45% of such cases saw 10.0" or more snow. In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). 91% of those cases also saw a colder than normal December in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In terms of seasonal snowfall, 64% of those seasons saw 30" or more snowfall in New York City with 45% having 40" or more. Just 18% of such cases had less than 20" seasonal snowfall, both of which had less than 10" for the December-January period.

However, there are cases where Decembers with strong blocking have seen much below normal snowfall. The three cases with less than 1" of monthly snowfall with a monthly average AO of -1.500 or below were: 1985: 0.9" (total seasonal snowfall: 13.0"); 1996: Trace (total seasonal snowfall: 10.0"); and, 2012: 0.4" (total seasonal snowfall: 26.1"). The lowest December snowfall when the AO averaged -2.000 or below was 5.1" in 1976. The lowest winter month snowfall with a monthly average AO of -2.000 or below was 0.5" in January 1998. There is a chance that both futility records could be surpassed this month.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +55.74 today. That smashed the daily record high of +44.34 from 2003. It was also the highest SOI reading since April 2, 2011 when the SOI reached +62.15.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.374 today.

On December 20 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.792 (RMM). The December 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.476 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.3° (1.8° below normal).

 

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We are forecasting temperatures to remain at or below 32° across much of our area for at least 4 consecutive days (midday Friday to Tuesday). This has not happened in Philly since Jan 2018. Some other locations south of I-78 have not experienced this since 2015 or 2016.
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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

You may have had big storm in Dec 2020; we had a few inches. But that would be fine right about now....

A few inches???? 
 

Middlesex County
Carteret 8.0
East Brunswick 8.5
Iselin 8.0
Metuchen(CoCo) 8.0
Middlesex(CoCo) 6.3
New Brunswick(CoCo,Coop) 4.8-6.3 (two reports)
North Brunswick Twp(CoCo) 7.8
Old Bridge Twp(CoCo) 7.5
South Brunswick 7.5
South Plainfield 6.0
South River(CoCo) 6.5
Woodbridge Twp(CoCo) 5
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