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December 2022


dmillz25
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Just now, LibertyBell said:

I like spring snows because I know they will be the last of the season.  April 1996-- do you remember there were actually two snowstorms that month?  There was one that only hit the eastern part of the forum while it white rained in the western part and then there was the big one where we all cashed in, except for some odd reason NYC and LGA got less than an inch (JFK got 4.5 so that was pretty good.)

 

Yup, watching Andy Petitte dominating while the snow is falling.

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21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Overnight (highs)  - will contrast to lows later this evening/overnight Fri - Christmas Eve

 

LGA: 59

ACY: 59
PHL: 59
ISP: 58
NYC: 58
EWR: 58
TEB: 58
New Brunswick: 58
TTN: 57
BLM: 57
HPN: 57
JFK: 56

Tony can you post the max wind gusts for these sites alongside too?  Thanks!

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony can you post the max wind gusts for these sites alongside too?  Thanks!

Sure thing.  It would be nice to see a quick period of rain changing to wet then drier snow, even though it wont accumulate or amount too much.  Thats whats happening near Harrisburg and perhaps can push its way here before the precip tapers off.

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Just now, SACRUS said:

Sure thing.  It would be nice to see a quick period of rain changing to wet then drier snow, even though it wont accumulate or amount too much.  Thats whats happening near Harrisburg and perhaps can push its way here before the precip tapers off.

Yes, I'm hoping for a nice snow squall for us!  Maybe even enough to whiten the ground?

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

Don you said there is some lag with these indices?  What is the maximum latest time one could get a snowfall and have it be associated with the block?

 

It could be a week later. Afterward, it's difficult to associate it with the blocking.

P.S. Buffalo has seen the passage of the Arctic cold front. There is currently heavy lake effect snow with 1/8 mile visibility.

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

None. The record low for the 11 prior Decembers with a -4 AO is 0.5" in December 1978.

Yeah, this is also the first December with an AO reading of -4 or lower to link up with the SE Ridge.

Decembers in -4 or lower daily AO composite

2010…2009…2000…1995…1978…1976…1968…1966…1963…1962…1950

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

4922C242-7873-4326-BE86-FBD026E1A3AD.gif.9adca12bc81b989c64f9247ad02aefdf.gif

 


8A1C181E-1BDA-4B92-80E5-8F72FBA17232.png.c76e53da844dacba5411841b3d38981e.png

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So the SST’s have been elevated for years over prior averages, what caused this linking to the WAR to occur now and not at other times? Is it the actual magnitude of the SST’s this year?

Is it a poor omen for the future of negative NAO / AO patterns or perhaps more of just an anomalous occurrence with this one? 

If this were to become a recurrent feature of -NAO regimes going forward I would worry we’re currently entering an era of snow doldrums… Hopefully not. :(

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14 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

So the SST’s have been elevated for years over prior averages, what caused this linking to the WAR to occur now and not at other times? Is it the actual magnitude of the SST’s this year?

Is it a poor omen for the future of negative NAO / AO patterns or perhaps more of just an anomalous occurrence with this one? 

If this were to become a recurrent feature of -NAO regimes going forward I would worry we’re currently entering an era of snow doldrums… Hopefully not. :(

We needed one of the most positive December +PNA patterns on record in 2020 to overcome that south based block and produce the double digit snowstorm in NYC.

 

55E9F015-84D0-47AE-B860-F51517D0CD95.png.6c4678c7a08808fae1bee6f9ee3afb1e.png

 

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13 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

So the SST’s have been elevated for years over prior averages, what caused this linking to the WAR to occur now and not at other times? Is it the actual magnitude of the SST’s this year?

Is it a poor omen for the future of negative NAO / AO patterns or perhaps more of just an anomalous occurrence with this one? 

If this were to become a recurrent feature of -NAO regimes going forward I would worry we’re currently entering an era of snow doldrums… Hopefully not. :(

Yeah who knows. If I were a betting man I would say we would rake in the snowfall the next time we have a -4SD AO.

Of course opinions vary, in the New England forum the METS are adamant it was all bad luck and timing and flow nuances. Others think it's permanent. Yet others believe will stay this way until the water temps cool on the east coast. Finally there are some that think the water temps are permanent and things will never be the same.

All we can do is wait and watch. Time will tell.

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23 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Can someone explain exactly what went wrong when we had such blocking? Bad SE ridge orientation?

The block linked up to the WAR and pushed the trough axis / storm track too far west into the Lakes. 

From my perspective it looks less like a wholesale pattern failure and more like a series of small misfortunes that cost us the storms.

I’m most interested in seeing if we can shake the upcoming unfavorable PAC and get the block back in place for a round two at some point in mid to late January. I just can’t let myself believe this is going to be a skunk winter off bad luck in what otherwise was a good Dec (from pattern / temp perspective). 

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4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The block linked up to the WAR and pushed the trough axis / storm track too far west into the Lakes. 

From my perspective it looks less like a wholesale pattern failure and more like a series of small misfortunes that cost us the storms. 

Yeah that's the New England forum Mets thoughts. 

Ironically we can use the darn WAR for the mid week system. So we are now rooting for the WAR to flex.

One too east. One too west. Our luck.

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1 hour ago, mattinpa said:

Can someone explain exactly what went wrong when we had such blocking? Bad SE ridge orientation?

The much warmer Gulf Stream circulation to our east looks like the reason the SE Ridge is linking up with the -AO more often. The Pacific side is nearly identical to the colder storm track run from last Thursday. So that leaves the models underestimating the SE Ridge influence from 8-10 days out. 
 

New run

86F78D25-D518-4334-A898-21AE27BFD499.thumb.png.9e054cbefda8d91fc9bfcd134f25d3d6.png

Old run

169EE5DC-8BD7-49EE-A90E-32B53727FB05.thumb.png.72b9a2be4c77dab52b7ea2d8aa86e9ca.png

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this is also the first December with an AO reading of -4 or lower to link up with the SE Ridge.

Decembers in -4 or lower daily AO composite

2010…2009…2000…1995…1978…1976…1968…1966…1963…1962…1950

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

4922C242-7873-4326-BE86-FBD026E1A3AD.gif.9adca12bc81b989c64f9247ad02aefdf.gif

 


8A1C181E-1BDA-4B92-80E5-8F72FBA17232.png.c76e53da844dacba5411841b3d38981e.png

much less blue overall. probably related to the shrinking polar vortex

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4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

much less blue overall. related to the shrinking polar vortex

Yeah on the upper level maps I looked at for the next two weeks it looks like no cold air at all on our side of the globe. Even Canada looks warm. What’s happening exactly to the vortex? Displaced to Asia?

This is something I don’t understand as well. Thanks Forky. 

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2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah on the upper level maps I looked at for the next two weeks it looks like no cold air at all on our side of the globe. Even Canada looks warm. What’s happening exactly to the vortex? Displaced to Asia?

This is something I don’t understand as well. Thanks Forky. 

all the cold got exhausted to north america and there's just less cold to go around these days

eps_T850aMean_nhem_1.png

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The much warmer Gulf Stream circulation to our east looks like the reason the SE Ridge is linking up with the -AO more often. The Pacific side is nearly identical to the colder storm track run from last Thursday. So that leaves the models underestimating the SE Ridge influence from 8-10 days out. 
 

New run

86F78D25-D518-4334-A898-21AE27BFD499.thumb.png.9e054cbefda8d91fc9bfcd134f25d3d6.png

Old run

169EE5DC-8BD7-49EE-A90E-32B53727FB05.thumb.png.72b9a2be4c77dab52b7ea2d8aa86e9ca.png

 

 

spot on Bluewave as usual

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43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The much warmer Gulf Stream circulation to our east looks like the reason the SE Ridge is linking up with the -AO more often. The Pacific side is nearly identical to the colder storm track run from last Thursday. So that leaves the models underestimating the SE Ridge influence from 8-10 days out. 
 

New run

86F78D25-D518-4334-A898-21AE27BFD499.thumb.png.9e054cbefda8d91fc9bfcd134f25d3d6.png

Old run

169EE5DC-8BD7-49EE-A90E-32B53727FB05.thumb.png.72b9a2be4c77dab52b7ea2d8aa86e9ca.png

 

 

Wasn't the Gulf Stream supposed to be slowing down which is why we're getting much bigger snowstorms-- or is that only for January onwards lol?

 

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