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December 2022


dmillz25
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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is the way it usually happens, having had this for years, you need everything to be perfect for these parts, it's why you either want to be farther to the north or up in the mountains.

 

We are overdue to another whopper of a snow season. Yeah we had a bunch of over average the last few years, but another 95/96 02/03 13/14 is what I am after. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

His point is that SE ridging connected with the blocking to cause this to run west of us, but that is not true. Like Will said, the western ridging was further west and that allowed for this to really dig into the Plains, and THEN you had heights rise in the east by the response.

From CoastalWX where they are debating the SE Ridge reason. 

Just to show multiple opinions.

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

From CoastalWX where they are debating the SE Ridge reason. 

Just to show multiple opinions.

That’s incorrect. The SE Ridge linking up with the -AO occurred before the shortwave entered the US. Notice the TPV is in the same location north of Montana. So it wasn’t caused by the TPV digging more. 

New run

B81B082C-7F22-4E47-8E96-B2E8DE9899EE.thumb.jpeg.78f0c8daa4c90f0eaca89100bf514326.jpeg

Old run

8C7CCA7C-2495-4708-A62B-997D51981023.thumb.jpeg.8302b59f63188d093f9c5ae407ea1c2e.jpeg

 

 

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Just now, bluewave said:

That’s incorrect. The SE Ridge linking up with the -AO occurred before the shortwave entered the US. Notice the TPV is in the same location north of Montana. So it wasn’t caused by the TPV digging more. 

New run

B81B082C-7F22-4E47-8E96-B2E8DE9899EE.thumb.jpeg.78f0c8daa4c90f0eaca89100bf514326.jpeg

Old run

8C7CCA7C-2495-4708-A62B-997D51981023.thumb.jpeg.8302b59f63188d093f9c5ae407ea1c2e.jpeg

 

 

I am not siding either way, just showing multiple opinions.

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

EURO had some flurries for the mid week system 

Not really even mid week. Euro showed the flurries early tuesday morning. Euro along with the other models still have the actual storm WAY offshore. They're still not bringing it closer. We're at day 4 range now too, so this is down to an extremely slim chance. I would give it another day before completely writing it off, but it's likely finished if tomorrow's model runs don't start bringing it closer. 

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I'm not sure I've ever seen the 10 day charts look this terrible this time of year on every model. 573dm at 500mb for days and days and days. It looks like June. There's not really even anything to root for except maybe record breaking warmth. We'd need some kind of massive multimodel error just to make it interesting.

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That said, I could see the early next week wave turning into a minor event. The wave spacing at least on the GFS and NAM has improved. I'm leaning against it because there haven't even been many individual ensemble members that have bitten, much less an OP run. But we do have a snow supporting atmosphere plus an upper level wave.

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23 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm not sure I've ever seen the 10 day charts look this terrible this time of year on every model. 573dm at 500mb for days and days and days. It looks like June. There's not really even anything to root for except maybe record breaking warmth. We'd need some kind of massive multimodel error just to make it interesting.

Right now we’re on “Empire Strikes Back,” just have to wait for the next installment, “Return of the Weenie.”

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High winds are continuing to blast frigid air into the region. At Central Park, the temperature has tumbled from an early high of 58° to 21° at 5 pm. The 37° range is among the top 0.09% of observations since recordkeeping began in 1869.

Temperatures will bottom out in the lower teens in New York City tonight. There remains a modest chance (approximately 25%) that the mercury could reach the single digits in Central Park. Numerous locations outside New York City will likely see single-digit lows. Tomorrow will see the mercury struggle to reach 20° in New York City. Sunday will be fair and continued very cold before slow moderation commences early next week. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around December 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +50.96 today. That broke the daily record of +44.34 from 2003. It was also the second consecutive +50 reading. Only February 16-17, 2011 and April 1-2, 2011 had two consecutive days on which the SOI was +50 or above.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.323 today.

On December 21 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.354 (RMM). The December 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.792 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.4° (1.7° below normal).

 

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14 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

They are salting the roads right now, for no reason at all

Same here.  Everything was rapidly drying and they have salt all over the place.  Even worse is no rain for next week or so it will be like a dust storm with the wind for a few days on the highways.  Has really gotten out of hand with treating roads for nothing over the last several years.  At least here in NJ.

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51 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said:

Down to 11 from an early morning high of 53.  Wind is howling.  I've not seen a 12 hour temperature spread like this that I can remember.  

Several local stations will set the new record soon for the largest December calendar day temperature drop.


https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&v=largest&month=dec&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png


AF4F6283-295B-4AF7-971A-7246231DEFED.thumb.png.23c18b86b5e5a0ffd3a3cd697c217148.png

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we are going to torch through the first week of January

however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal

blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development

so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z200_speed-1671818400-1672509600-1673200800-20-1.thumb.gif.2ab5b3835e623f26a59ae873453fc8f4.gifgfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1671818400-1672509600-1673200800-20-1.thumb.gif.efc4f1052b45dab949b3befcd74bf364.gif

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