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December 2022


dmillz25
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5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

60 is going to feel actually tropical next week after we all adjust to this level of cold. 

I do appreciate Lady Gaia saying, “I’ll give you a cold Xmas, but you can’t have New Years!”

It would be a first for 60° around New Years following single digits so close to Christmas. The only Christmas Eve or Christmas in the single digits to ever go over 50° on New Year’s Eve or day was 1989. So we have already gone colder than 1989 around Christmas. This year could be the greatest Christmas to New years warm up on record. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25
Dec31 to Jan 1 highest Max Temperature 
1 1980-12-25 -1 28
2 1983-12-25 4 32
- 1872-12-25 4 38
4 1883-12-25 7 37
5 1989-12-25 9 53
- 1960-12-25 9 44
- 1896-12-25 9 46
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NYC is in track for the lowest December snowfall with a daily -4 AO reading or lower during a La Niña.

La Niña Decembers with a -4 or lower daily AO reading and NYC snowfall

2022…T

2010…20.1

2000…13.4

1995….11.5

1966…9.1

1950….3.8

El Nino

2009….12.4

1976….5.1

1968….7.0

1963….11.3

Neutral

1978….0.5

1962…4.5

 

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC is in track for the lowest December snowfall with a daily -4 AO reading or lower during a La Niña.

La Niña Decembers with a -4 or lower daily AO reading and NYC snowfall

2022…T

2010…20.1

2000…13.4

1995….11.5

1966…9.1

1950….3.8

El Nino

2009….12.4

1976….5.1

1968….7.0

1963….11.3

Neutral

1978….0.5

1962…4.5

 

Thanks for this.

It's amazing how some months are a hair away from looking completely different.

2000 was very very close to being a complete shut out. If that storm was just a bit east/late, would be the record holder.

You were correct at the beginning of the month when you pointed out that 2010 was way stronger than this block, and should in no way compare. In the end 2010 was a historic block. That being said, how much snow would Central Park have if the boxing day blizzard was too far east like the models had? Maybe half an inch?

Goes to show how lucky we have been, and this month is a reminder that now matter how cold it is or how favorable the pattern looks, snowfall is never guaranteed at our latitude/elevation.

IMBY going to finish with 1.5 inches. Amazing.

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11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yes until Canada gets colder but I doubt the whole month is wasted .

Fingers always crossed, but it’s tough to get too excited during a Niña as we exit December having recorded only a trace of snow.  Even if the Niña weakens, the atmosphere’ll take time to respond.  I think I’ll take anything I can get this winter.  Hopefully, the late 90s-like string of boring winters ends with this one.

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Good luck….we wasted December….

December was just bad luck that's all.

Per my post, 2000 was one storm away from a wasted neg NAO. 2010 was one storm away from wasting a neg NAO. It happens. Where we live there are no guarantees.

On the flip side, we had a good snow event in February 2018 where we hit 70 in a furnace this January has no chance to beat. So why can't that happen again this January?

This past storm was too far northwest. Next storm will be too far SE. 

You and MJO should make a bet on the over under snowfall for January.

Would you take over/under for Central Park, 4.5 inches?

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

December was just bad luck that's all.

Per my post, 2000 was one storm away from a wasted neg NAO. 2010 was one storm away from wasting a neg NAO. It happens. Where we live there are no guarantees.

On the flip side, we had a good snow event in February 2018 where we hit 70 in a furnace this January has no chance to beat. So why can't that happen again this January?

This past storm was too far northwest. Next storm will be too far SE. 

You and MJO should make a bet on the over under snowfall for January.

Would you take over/under for Central Park, 4.5 inches?

I already told him by December 20th he wouldn’t have an inch and then double down again by saying 1/15. 

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7 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Fingers always crossed, but it’s tough to get too excited during a Niña as we exit December having recorded only a trace of snow.  Even if the Niña weakens, the atmosphere’ll take time to respond.  I think I’ll take anything I can get this winter.  Hopefully, the late 90s-like string of boring winters ends with this one.

Yeah, the late 90s were far worse than the past 4 years WRT snowfall.

This year TBD. Will be interesting to see if blocking does return. 

 

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21 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

We are overdue to another whopper of a snow season. Yeah we had a bunch of over average the last few years, but another 95/96 02/03 13/14 is what I am after. 

About once a decade here....last one was 17-18 if you go by the 40" per season numbers that a lot of people call a Grade A snow season here.

 

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11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah, the late 90s were far worse than the past 4 years WRT snowfall.

This year TBD. Will be interesting to see if blocking does return. 

 

late 80s/early 90s too.

We did a contest a few years ago and I believe the late 80s/early 90s beat the late 90s-- the thing about the late 90s was no one cared because we were all happy with what we got in 93-94 and 95-96

I don't even remember the late 90s-- I didn't start caring again until the March 2001 bust and the terrible 2001-02 season lol.

But let's say you do 87-88 to 91-92 and compare it to 96-97 to 99-00

The former was worse.....

 

Let's say you skip over 00-01 and add in 01-02, maybe they're a draw?

5 seasons of futility vs 5 out of 6 seasons of futility lol

 

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22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

December was just bad luck that's all.

Per my post, 2000 was one storm away from a wasted neg NAO. 2010 was one storm away from wasting a neg NAO. It happens. Where we live there are no guarantees.

On the flip side, we had a good snow event in February 2018 where we hit 70 in a furnace this January has no chance to beat. So why can't that happen again this January?

This past storm was too far northwest. Next storm will be too far SE. 

You and MJO should make a bet on the over under snowfall for January.

Would you take over/under for Central Park, 4.5 inches?

From the evidence Chris posted, December seems to have been all about that warm pool east of the area.  All blocking is definitely not equal.

 

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23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

December was just bad luck that's all.

Per my post, 2000 was one storm away from a wasted neg NAO. 2010 was one storm away from wasting a neg NAO. It happens. Where we live there are no guarantees.

On the flip side, we had a good snow event in February 2018 where we hit 70 in a furnace this January has no chance to beat. So why can't that happen again this January?

This past storm was too far northwest. Next storm will be too far SE. 

You and MJO should make a bet on the over under snowfall for January.

Would you take over/under for Central Park, 4.5 inches?

It's a lot easier to get snow in January and February than it is in December here-- December isn't really a snow month here for a variety of reasons.

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

About once a decade here....last one was 17-18 if you go by the 40" per season numbers that a lot of people call a Grade A snow season here.

 

17/18 was a top 5 winter for me.

1.) Had 56 inches of snow IMBY (average 30 to 35)

2.) Had great warmth in February (I love warm weather)

3.) Had the snowiest March/April in my lifetime with 28 inches

4.) Had a good snowy December

5.) Had a monster early Jan snowstorm

 

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

17/18 was a top 5 winter for me.

1.) Had 56 inches of snow IMBY (average 30 to 35)

2.) Had great warmth in February (I love warm weather)

3.) Had the snowiest March/April in my lifetime with 28 inches

4.) Had a good snowy December

5.) Had a monster early Jan snowstorm

 

Yes that was one of the best winters for me too.  The Grade A winters in the 10s were 10-11, 13-14, 14-15, and 17-18.  Not including 15-16 despite 40" here and the biggest snowstorm ever here, over 30" and below zero in NYC on Valentine's Day because December was historically warm and Jan 16 had the only big snow storm (though we did have a few decent ones in February too.)

In the 00s, we had 02-03, 03-04, 04-05, 09-10 (not going to put 05-06 in there even though NYC had 40" and their largest snowstorm until Jan 2016 because it was a warm winter and that was the only big snowstorm).

So we had 4 in each of the past two decades.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

From the evidence Chris posted, December seems to have been all about that warm pool east of the area.  All blocking is definitely not equal.

 

Yeah, hopefully next time it will have less influence/not be there at all.

I respect Chris and I personally do not have an opinion to which is correct, but you should check out Orh Wxman and Coastal WX Mets in the New England forum. Their opinion is the PAC is what ultimately failed us.

Again NOT saying which is right, just that there are multiple opinions on why we failed, and maybe it's both.

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