Volcanic Winter Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 60 is going to feel actually tropical next week after we all adjust to this level of cold. I do appreciate Lady Gaia saying, “I’ll give you a cold Xmas, but you can’t have New Years!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Morning thoughts… Following yesterday’s historic drop in temperatures, today will be mostly sunny and very cold. High temperatures will reach the upper teens and lower 20s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 19° Newark: 21° Philadelphia: 21° Despite sunshine, it will again be very cold tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 43.0° Newark: 30-Year: 42.6°; 15-Year: 43.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.9° The last time New York City had a high temperature in the teens was January 31, 2019 when the high was 16°. The last time New York City had a high in the teens in December was December 28, 2017 when the temperature topped out at 17°. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Any snow reports from the north fork area of Suffolk County? Radar shows it’s been snowing from ocean/sound effect bands all night and still is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: 60 is going to feel actually tropical next week after we all adjust to this level of cold. I do appreciate Lady Gaia saying, “I’ll give you a cold Xmas, but you can’t have New Years!” It would be a first for 60° around New Years following single digits so close to Christmas. The only Christmas Eve or Christmas in the single digits to ever go over 50° on New Year’s Eve or day was 1989. So we have already gone colder than 1989 around Christmas. This year could be the greatest Christmas to New years warm up on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25 Dec31 to Jan 1 highest Max Temperature 1 1980-12-25 -1 28 2 1983-12-25 4 32 - 1872-12-25 4 38 4 1883-12-25 7 37 5 1989-12-25 9 53 - 1960-12-25 9 44 - 1896-12-25 9 46 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Overnight low here was -0.4, officially zero. Merry Christmas to all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Lows and winds gusts HPN: 5 / 36 MH TTN: 5 / 41 New Brnswck: 6 / 31 MPH TEB: 6 / 40 MPH ISP: 8 / 46 MPH EWR: 8 / 44 MPH JFK: 7 / 53 MPH NYC: 7 / 40 MPH LGA: 7 / 51 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 1983 / 1989 challenging cold today / tomorrow close in many spots. NYC: 6 (1983) EWR: 3 - (1983, 1989) LGA: 4 (1983) JFK: 5 (1983) New brnswk: 2 (1989) TTN: -1 (1983) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 looking at a potential 50 or more degree swing Christmas Eve - New Years eve where perhaps a few record highs could be challenged pending on rainfall next week/year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Emerging in 8? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 NYC is in track for the lowest December snowfall with a daily -4 AO reading or lower during a La Niña. La Niña Decembers with a -4 or lower daily AO reading and NYC snowfall 2022…T 2010…20.1 2000…13.4 1995….11.5 1966…9.1 1950….3.8 El Nino 2009….12.4 1976….5.1 1968….7.0 1963….11.3 Neutral 1978….0.5 1962…4.5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC is in track for the lowest December snowfall with a daily -4 AO reading or lower during a La Niña. La Niña Decembers with a -4 or lower daily AO reading and NYC snowfall 2022…T 2010…20.1 2000…13.4 1995….11.5 1966…9.1 1950….3.8 El Nino 2009….12.4 1976….5.1 1968….7.0 1963….11.3 Neutral 1978….0.5 1962…4.5 Thanks for this. It's amazing how some months are a hair away from looking completely different. 2000 was very very close to being a complete shut out. If that storm was just a bit east/late, would be the record holder. You were correct at the beginning of the month when you pointed out that 2010 was way stronger than this block, and should in no way compare. In the end 2010 was a historic block. That being said, how much snow would Central Park have if the boxing day blizzard was too far east like the models had? Maybe half an inch? Goes to show how lucky we have been, and this month is a reminder that now matter how cold it is or how favorable the pattern looks, snowfall is never guaranteed at our latitude/elevation. IMBY going to finish with 1.5 inches. Amazing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Emerging in 8? Epo also going negative again by the end of 1st week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Epo also going negative again by the end of 1st week I would expect more can kicks and modified air to work with…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: I would expect more can kicks and modified air to work with…. Yes until Canada gets colder but I doubt the whole month is wasted . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes until Canada gets colder but I doubt the whole month is wasted . Good luck….we wasted December…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Just now, Allsnow said: Good luck….we wasted December…. What does that have to do with December ? Seems like you are disagreeing again with the same forecasters that forecasted a great December pattern lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What does that have to do with December ? Seems like you are disagreeing again with the same forecasters that forecasted a great December pattern lol How did that workout? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Bottomed out at -8 here in the Berkshires this AM. Currently sitting at zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Emerging in 8? Not emerging. Progressing through the Pacific 6,7,8. The circle is the 1 standard deviation demarcation. Which is significant in la nina. It's complicated though, those charts belong in the dumpster IMO lol. They can be misleading sometimes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes until Canada gets colder but I doubt the whole month is wasted . Fingers always crossed, but it’s tough to get too excited during a Niña as we exit December having recorded only a trace of snow. Even if the Niña weakens, the atmosphere’ll take time to respond. I think I’ll take anything I can get this winter. Hopefully, the late 90s-like string of boring winters ends with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Good luck….we wasted December…. December was just bad luck that's all. Per my post, 2000 was one storm away from a wasted neg NAO. 2010 was one storm away from wasting a neg NAO. It happens. Where we live there are no guarantees. On the flip side, we had a good snow event in February 2018 where we hit 70 in a furnace this January has no chance to beat. So why can't that happen again this January? This past storm was too far northwest. Next storm will be too far SE. You and MJO should make a bet on the over under snowfall for January. Would you take over/under for Central Park, 4.5 inches? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: December was just bad luck that's all. Per my post, 2000 was one storm away from a wasted neg NAO. 2010 was one storm away from wasting a neg NAO. It happens. Where we live there are no guarantees. On the flip side, we had a good snow event in February 2018 where we hit 70 in a furnace this January has no chance to beat. So why can't that happen again this January? This past storm was too far northwest. Next storm will be too far SE. You and MJO should make a bet on the over under snowfall for January. Would you take over/under for Central Park, 4.5 inches? I already told him by December 20th he wouldn’t have an inch and then double down again by saying 1/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Fingers always crossed, but it’s tough to get too excited during a Niña as we exit December having recorded only a trace of snow. Even if the Niña weakens, the atmosphere’ll take time to respond. I think I’ll take anything I can get this winter. Hopefully, the late 90s-like string of boring winters ends with this one. Yeah, the late 90s were far worse than the past 4 years WRT snowfall. This year TBD. Will be interesting to see if blocking does return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I already told him by December 20th he wouldn’t have an inch and then double down again by saying 1/15. I think 4.5 over/under is a good snow line for January. Not sure which I would choose ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 21 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: We are overdue to another whopper of a snow season. Yeah we had a bunch of over average the last few years, but another 95/96 02/03 13/14 is what I am after. About once a decade here....last one was 17-18 if you go by the 40" per season numbers that a lot of people call a Grade A snow season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah, the late 90s were far worse than the past 4 years WRT snowfall. This year TBD. Will be interesting to see if blocking does return. late 80s/early 90s too. We did a contest a few years ago and I believe the late 80s/early 90s beat the late 90s-- the thing about the late 90s was no one cared because we were all happy with what we got in 93-94 and 95-96 I don't even remember the late 90s-- I didn't start caring again until the March 2001 bust and the terrible 2001-02 season lol. But let's say you do 87-88 to 91-92 and compare it to 96-97 to 99-00 The former was worse..... Let's say you skip over 00-01 and add in 01-02, maybe they're a draw? 5 seasons of futility vs 5 out of 6 seasons of futility lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: December was just bad luck that's all. Per my post, 2000 was one storm away from a wasted neg NAO. 2010 was one storm away from wasting a neg NAO. It happens. Where we live there are no guarantees. On the flip side, we had a good snow event in February 2018 where we hit 70 in a furnace this January has no chance to beat. So why can't that happen again this January? This past storm was too far northwest. Next storm will be too far SE. You and MJO should make a bet on the over under snowfall for January. Would you take over/under for Central Park, 4.5 inches? From the evidence Chris posted, December seems to have been all about that warm pool east of the area. All blocking is definitely not equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: December was just bad luck that's all. Per my post, 2000 was one storm away from a wasted neg NAO. 2010 was one storm away from wasting a neg NAO. It happens. Where we live there are no guarantees. On the flip side, we had a good snow event in February 2018 where we hit 70 in a furnace this January has no chance to beat. So why can't that happen again this January? This past storm was too far northwest. Next storm will be too far SE. You and MJO should make a bet on the over under snowfall for January. Would you take over/under for Central Park, 4.5 inches? It's a lot easier to get snow in January and February than it is in December here-- December isn't really a snow month here for a variety of reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: About once a decade here....last one was 17-18 if you go by the 40" per season numbers that a lot of people call a Grade A snow season here. 17/18 was a top 5 winter for me. 1.) Had 56 inches of snow IMBY (average 30 to 35) 2.) Had great warmth in February (I love warm weather) 3.) Had the snowiest March/April in my lifetime with 28 inches 4.) Had a good snowy December 5.) Had a monster early Jan snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes until Canada gets colder but I doubt the whole month is wasted . Jan 20th.....history repeats itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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