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December 2022


dmillz25
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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow!  Did it snow everywhere that day or was it very spotty?  I'm going to put Christmas 1980 on my short list for underrated and underrappreciated extreme winter days.  So far it's that, the January 1985 extreme arctic outbreak and PD2 on the list.  I didn't know the afternoon high was so low, that puts it up there with the elite of the late 1800s and early 1900s as some of the coldest days we have had here all time.  I would love to know what kind of airmass that was and how it compares to the January 1985 extreme arctic airmass which was the only single digit high temperature at NYC I can remember (-2/7 split).  I was way too young in January 1977 to remember that at all.

Yep, daytime highs for 12/25/1980 was even colder than 12/25/1983. As cold as it was during the DEC 1983 outbreak by 12/28 both PHL & NYC were in the mid 50's with over an inch of rain from a healthy clipper so those situations also occurred in the past. Wasted or unproductive cold is not unique to this day & age.

Regarding snow for Christmas 1980 that actually fell on the afternoon of Christmas Eve, 2-3" from NE Philly up thru CNJ to New Brunswick. PHL was rain & metro NYC looks to be a little less with around an inch. So a white Christmas that year for many outside NYC & PHL which are only listed as T's.

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The last 5 days of December are averaging    37degs.(33/42) or +3.

Month to date is    37.3[-2.4].          December should end at    37.3[-1.8].

Reached 29* here yesterday at midnight.

Today:   32-35, wind w. to nw., p. sunny, 32 tomorrow AM.

Start of a trend or just a head fake?     Don't let the snowballs hit you in the head---or you will join the GFS in the {fill in}      The Ens. is under a 30% chance of at least 1" all the way to the 12th.

1672120800-m2s0EQxp2X8.png

30*(49%RH) here at 6am(most of the night at 30*)      29* at 7am.       31* at 9am.      33* at Noon.       Reached 35* at 3:30pm.         34* at 6pm.

 

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Tough for Northern New England to avoid near record warmth in December with the NW Atlantic SSTs near all-time warmest levels. 

1CC6ED44-E029-439F-9147-65E0965384C1.thumb.png.97bc9f833c4d5dec0d3818f0121ea375.png

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 28.5 0
2 2022 26.5 5
- 2001 26.5 0
3 1996 26.2 0
4 2020 26.0 0
5 2010 25.2 0
6 2006 23.6 0
7 1973 23.2 1
8 1981 23.1 0
9 2011 22.5 0
10 1953 22.4 0


4F7BE2C8-EB5A-4274-811C-642133D659EA.thumb.png.7188c6f36e03407001e9f0c6d5814e3b.png

 


97E90BD6-AFE6-4750-92F5-F9B700058F65.thumb.jpeg.12d5ac4e449c06e11bcce3768059967a.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tough for Northern New England to avoid near record warmth in December with the NW Atlantic SSTs near all-time warmest levels. 

1CC6ED44-E029-439F-9147-65E0965384C1.thumb.png.97bc9f833c4d5dec0d3818f0121ea375.png

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 28.5 0
2 2022 26.5 5
- 2001 26.5 0
3 1996 26.2 0
4 2020 26.0 0
5 2010 25.2 0
6 2006 23.6 0
7 1973 23.2 1
8 1981 23.1 0
9 2011 22.5 0
10 1953 22.4 0


4F7BE2C8-EB5A-4274-811C-642133D659EA.thumb.png.7188c6f36e03407001e9f0c6d5814e3b.png

 


97E90BD6-AFE6-4750-92F5-F9B700058F65.thumb.jpeg.12d5ac4e449c06e11bcce3768059967a.jpeg

At one time I had relatives that lived in that area. Winters aren't even close to what they once were.

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tough for Northern New England to avoid near record warmth in December with the NW Atlantic SSTs near all-time warmest levels. 

1CC6ED44-E029-439F-9147-65E0965384C1.thumb.png.97bc9f833c4d5dec0d3818f0121ea375.png

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2015 28.5 0
2 2022 26.5 5
- 2001 26.5 0
3 1996 26.2 0
4 2020 26.0 0
5 2010 25.2 0
6 2006 23.6 0
7 1973 23.2 1
8 1981 23.1 0
9 2011 22.5 0
10 1953 22.4 0


4F7BE2C8-EB5A-4274-811C-642133D659EA.thumb.png.7188c6f36e03407001e9f0c6d5814e3b.png

 


97E90BD6-AFE6-4750-92F5-F9B700058F65.thumb.jpeg.12d5ac4e449c06e11bcce3768059967a.jpeg

the whole ecosystem of places like the North Country at risk.

 

Not to mention winter tourism for an areas that are totally, economically depressed without it.

 

Whiteface, which always had terrible snow making, is now totally dependent on it.

 

Mt Van Hovenberg, which always had no snowmaking, now has snowmaking.

 

December, which was a reliably winter month in the Adirondacks, is no longer a lock for an Xmas week vacation. As a matter of fact, it’s almost a lock that it will be in the 40s and 50s.

these changes have all occurred since the 80s. and for those of you that retort with a few snowstorms in March, for most eastern ski areas, the bulk of the season revenue is over after Presidents week

 

It is a very sad situation up north

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32 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Yep, daytime highs for 12/25/1980 was even colder than 12/25/1983. As cold as it was during the DEC 1983 outbreak by 12/28 both PHL & NYC were in the mid 50's with over an inch of rain from a healthy clipper so those situations also occurred in the past. Wasted or unproductive cold is not unique to this day & age.

Regarding snow for Christmas 1980 that actually fell on the afternoon of Christmas Eve, 2-3" from NE Philly up thru CNJ to New Brunswick. PHL was rain & metro NYC looks to be a little less with around an inch. So a white Christmas that year for many outside NYC & PHL which are only listed as T's.

1. Correct!

2. I was 14 in 1980 and seem to recall snow just before Christmas that year...either the 23rd or 24th. Thank you for confirming I didn't imagine that.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This December is colder than the average since 2011. The 37.3 so far in NYC is below the 12 year average of 40.6. But this is closer to average for the previous 12 years. It’s about 1° warmer than the 1951-1980 average. It’s also 3° warmer than the 1871-1900 average.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 40.6 40.6
2022 37.3 37.3
2021 43.8 43.8
2020 39.2 39.2
2019 38.3 38.3
2018 40.1 40.1
2017 35.0 35.0
2016 38.3 38.3
2015 50.8 50.8
2014 40.5 40.5
2013 38.5 38.5
2012 41.5 41.5
2011 43.3 43.3


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 37.5 37.5
2010 32.8 32.8
2009 35.9 35.9
2008 38.1 38.1
2007 37.0 37.0
2006 43.6 43.6
2005 35.3 35.3
2004 38.4 38.4
2003 37.6 37.6
2002 36.0 36.0
2001 44.1 44.1
2000 31.1 31.1
1999 39.9 39.9

 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 36.2 36.2
1980 32.4 32.4
1979 41.1 41.1
1978 38.9 38.9
1977 35.6 35.6
1976 29.9 29.9
1975 35.8 35.8
1974 39.3 39.3
1973 39.0 39.0
1972 38.5 38.5
1971 40.8 40.8
1970 34.4 34.4
1969 33.4 33.4
1968 34.2 34.2
1967 38.2 38.2
1966 35.7 35.7
1965 40.5 40.5
1964 36.4 36.4
1963 31.2 31.2
1962 31.5 31.5
1961 35.5 35.5
1960 30.9 30.9
1959 38.4 38.4
1958 29.3 29.3
1957 40.2 40.2
1956 40.9 40.9
1955 29.7 29.7
1954 35.9 35.9
1953 41.3 41.3
1952 38.4 38.4
1951 39.1 39.1


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 34.1 34.1
1900 36.2 36.2
1899 38.1 38.1
1898 35.0 35.0
1897 38.6 38.6
1896 34.4 34.4
1895 38.4 38.4
1894 36.7 36.7
1893 34.9 34.9
1892 32.2 32.2
1891 42.5 42.5
1890 30.0 30.0
1889 39.7 39.7
1888 34.7 34.7
1887 33.4 33.4
1886 29.7 29.7
1885 35.3 35.3
1884 33.6 33.6
1883 31.6 31.6
1882 30.6 30.6
1881 39.0 39.0
1880 26.4 26.4
1879 36.8 36.8
1878 33.2 33.2
1877 37.4 37.4
1876 25.0 25.0
1875 33.4 33.4
1874 34.4 34.4
1873 36.7 36.7
1872 26.7 26.7
1871 29.0 29.0

Wow, that is so incredible… Seeing temperature data for Dec alone listed this way, makes it overtly clear how we lost Dec as a winter month. Look at the consistency of cold to very cold Decembers going way back! 40 was even an anomaly, now it’s what we should expect at minimum (it feels like, anyway).  

Again, how is this not monumentally depressing to people? Rhetorical, I know the reasons (including people don’t enjoy the cold), still this is so “in your face” major. One month, yes, but such an absolutely remarkable change from what was geologically a nanosecond ago. 

I need a Xanax after reading this. 

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4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On December 24, 2022, the maximum temperature in New York City was 15°F (-9.4°C). That was the coldest December high temperature since December 25, 1983 when the temperature topped out at 13°F (-10.6°C) and tied for the 17th coldest December high on record. 
 

image.jpeg.b43f7005677b6e0b122f22a98bf3cf1f.jpeg

The fact that it was only “17th coldest” says quite a lot with respect to Bluewave’s post and my thoughts. This will be the coldest Xmas that many, myself included, have experienced in their lifetime. 

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Northern New England is warming at a faster rate in December  than NYC since the 1951-1980 climate normals period. 

Dec 2011-2022 - 1951-1980

CAR….+5.0°

BTV….+6.8°

NYC...+4.4°
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 20.7 20.7
2022 26.5 26.5
2021 21.4 21.4
2020 26.0 26.0
2019 20.8 20.8
2018 16.4 16.4
2017 13.4 13.4
2016 16.6 16.6
2015 28.5 28.5
2014 22.3 22.3
2013 12.9 12.9
2012 21.4 21.4
2011 22.5 22.5


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 15.7 15.7
1980 9.0 9.0
1979 19.1 19.1
1978 16.3 16.3
1977 16.8 16.8
1976 7.9 7.9
1975 10.8 10.8
1974 18.5 18.5
1973 23.2 23.2
1972 7.6 7.6
1971 11.6 11.6
1970 10.1 10.1
1969 21.9 21.9
1968 17.9 17.9
1967 17.3 17.3
1966 21.1 21.1
1965 15.8 15.8
1964 16.9 16.9
1963 8.7 8.7
1962 16.5 16.5
1961 21.4 21.4
1960 16.5 16.5
1959 18.5 18.5
1958 5.5 5.5
1957 21.0 21.0
1956 14.6 14.6
1955 11.1 11.1
1954 18.9 18.9
1953 22.4 22.4
1952 18.8 18.8
1951 14.2 14.2

 


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 29.4 29.4
2022 29.9 29.9
2021 31.8 31.8
2020 31.3 31.3
2019 27.4 27.4
2018 26.8 26.8
2017 22.3 22.3
2016 29.0 29.0
2015 39.2 39.2
2014 30.0 30.0
2013 23.5 23.5
2012 30.8 30.8
2011 30.6 30.6


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 22.6 22.6
1980 15.0 15.0
1979 29.0 29.0
1978 25.1 25.1
1977 22.4 22.4
1976 16.3 16.3
1975 20.1 20.1
1974 28.5 28.5
1973 27.4 27.4
1972 22.5 22.5
1971 24.3 24.3
1970 14.3 14.3
1969 18.6 18.6
1968 17.9 17.9
1967 25.5 25.5
1966 23.4 23.4
1965 28.5 28.5
1964 24.8 24.8
1963 12.9 12.9
1962 20.1 20.1
1961 23.9 23.9
1960 19.7 19.7
1959 26.0 26.0
1958 13.0 13.0
1957 29.6 29.6
1956 26.2 26.2
1955 16.6 16.6
1954 23.1 23.1
1953 31.4 31.4
1952 26.8 26.8
1951 25.0 25.0


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 40.6 40.6
2022 37.3 37.3
2021 43.8 43.8
2020 39.2 39.2
2019 38.3 38.3
2018 40.1 40.1
2017 35.0 35.0
2016 38.3 38.3
2015 50.8 50.8
2014 40.5 40.5
2013 38.5 38.5
2012 41.5 41.5
2011 43.3 43.3


 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Season
Mean 36.2 36.2
1980 32.4 32.4
1979 41.1 41.1
1978 38.9 38.9
1977 35.6 35.6
1976 29.9 29.9
1975 35.8 35.8
1974 39.3 39.3
1973 39.0 39.0
1972 38.5 38.5
1971 40.8 40.8
1970 34.4 34.4
1969 33.4 33.4
1968 34.2 34.2
1967 38.2 38.2
1966 35.7 35.7
1965 40.5 40.5
1964 36.4 36.4
1963 31.2 31.2
1962 31.5 31.5
1961 35.5 35.5
1960 30.9 30.9
1959 38.4 38.4
1958 29.3 29.3
1957 40.2 40.2
1956 40.9 40.9
1955 29.7 29.7
1954 35.9 35.9
1953 41.3 41.3
1952 38.4 38.4
1951 39.1 39.1
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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The fact that it was only “17th coldest” says quite a lot with respect to Bluewave’s post and my thoughts. This will be the coldest Xmas that many, myself included, have experienced in their lifetime. 

I really I hope I see a VEI 7 In my lifetime. That would bring a 1800s style winter. We are due 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I really I hope I see a VEI 7 In my lifetime. That would bring a 1800s style winter. We are due 

Don’t start me up, I don’t stop once I get derailed into my biggest earthly passion :lol:.

Yeah, the odds really aren’t that bad. You’ll typically see 2-4 VEI7 or very near 7 level events per millennium, and that number increases a bit more as you go a bit lower into the still incredibly large mid to upper end 6 range. And small to medium 6’s occur nearly every century, with the 20th having three VEI6’s with several more borderline 6’s. You really only need a borderline 6 like Pinatubo to impact the climate, assuming the volcano erupts a gaseous magma as Pinatubo did. And if you have a particularly stinky mid level 5 like El Chichon in the 80’s, you can even see a small negative anomaly from that. Borderline 5’s like St Helens are pretty much universally too small, though they can still be additive if coinciding with a larger event. It’s a little known fact that Pinatubo caused such a significant volcanic winter in part because Cerro Hudson erupted quite large the same year.

Large events really aren’t all that rare, at least insofar as we can tell from the last thousand years which has much better resolution than prior. 

We also saw quite a number of large explosive events in the Aluetians and other poleward volcanoes in the early Holocene from the loss of ice and resulting containment pressure drop. I do believe we’ll see something similar as warming continues, though to a lesser extent than coming out of the LGM, at least initially. 

Hunga Tonga was spectacular though, erupted at or above borderline VEI6 level within an hour or two. Most large explosive events take days. That is monumental. 

Don’t forget, any (ahem) “volcanic winter” nowadays will just roll back several decades of warming for a couple years. Even if another Tambora went off tomorrow, the effects wouldn’t be as severe with respect to climate anomalies. It was already much colder then, so Tambora’s gargantuan forcing coupled with a much colder climate base state (not to mention the assist of another large event several years prior). 

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46 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Many parts of the country had a pretty brutal December, we missed out. Now it looks like most of the country will have a mild first half of January which we won't miss out.

Eh, at least IMBY we had quite a few upper 30’sh 25l days this month, that’s solidly below normal early - mid Dec if not outright cold. Given how warm Dec has been for us lately and how the month looks to be finishing up (give or take 37 at Central Park as per Bluewave back a page), overall that’s really not bad. We just missed the snow, but the month wasn’t a torch or anything. Impressively the torch to start the month was soundly erased. 

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1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Eh, at least IMBY we had quite a few upper 30’sh 25l days this month, that’s solidly below normal early - mid Dec if not outright cold. Given how warm Dec has been for us lately and how the month looks to be finishing up (give or take 37 at Central Park as per Bluewave back a page), overall that’s really not bad. We just missed the snow, but the month wasn’t a torch or anything. Impressively the torch to start the month was soundly erased. 

Yea the month was pretty much normal or slightly below with temperatures but below normal with snow. The pattern in December was one I remember from many previous years, cold followed by inland runners followed by cold. Frustrating for us but great for the middle of the country.

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I guess the upside to the way the month played out is many of the regions that have been very dry started to put some moisture down. We've now brought our soil moisture up to where it needs to be to move past the short term drought and the upper Midwest and the Rockies > west are in a good position to also get the ground moisture in a better place. 

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56 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Yea the month was pretty much normal or slightly below with temperatures but below normal with snow. The pattern in December was one I remember from many previous years, cold followed by inland runners followed by cold. Frustrating for us but great for the middle of the country.

Cleveland, Detroit, and Chicago are all below normal snowfall. Sometimes Buffalo gets plastered on TV as if it is representative of the rest of the nation.

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After the T passes 32 tomorrow by Noon---it may not go below freezing or reach it again till passed Jan. 12.      That would be about 15 days at or above Freezing.       Someone should check on what that record is for the January portion, at least.       I know the record at the other end of the spectrum, staying at or below Freezing,  is 16 days in 1961 with bookend snows.

1672142400-9q8Tpr7oavo.png

But alas.     Go ahead a little more and see the world centered around the 13th.      Get it done here boy or don't show your face in these parts again till next winter.       Hint:   You won't need any Rock Salt by February.

rrwt-1620-nh-gph.png

 

 

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55 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Last time Central Park had a winter with three consecutive below normal monthly means in a row: 2013 - 2014 and that is with today's normals which keep on going up and up.

December 2013 was +1.0 in NYC using the 1981-2010 climate normals. The NCDC site has the actual departures for past months before the new 1991-2020 climate normals period. The NWS and XMACIS sites correct all the previous years back to the 1800s departures to 1991-2020 normals. So we have to use NCDC to get the actual departures as they were at the time.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_page=1&state=NY&stationID=94728&_target2=Next+>

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-3471AB84-CFD9-4C86-AA5D-139FA563DF99.pdf

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The mercury pushed into the middle 30s today as warmer air began overspreading the region. Tomorrow, the thermometer will very likely break 40°. By the end of the week, temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in much of the area. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures across the region. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal.

Although some of the guidance suggests that stratospheric warming could commence during the second week of January, skill scores at that range, even before considering whether the warming would be sufficient to displace or split the polar vortex, are low. Thus, while the second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, a cold outcome is not assured. Indeed, the latest EPS weeklies illustrate the idea that a cold outcome isn't assured.

It appears increasingly very likely that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +19.56 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.937 today.

On December 25 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.957 (RMM). The December 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.868 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal).

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The mercury pushed into the middle 30s today as warmer air began overspreading the region. Tomorrow, the thermometer will very likely break 40°. By the end of the week, temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in much of the area. The first week of January will likely see much above normal temperatures across the region. The week will likely see readings average 5°-10° above normal.

Although some of the guidance suggests that stratospheric warming could commence during the second week of January, skill scores at that range, even before considering whether the warming would be sufficient to displace or split the polar vortex, are low. Thus, while the second week of January could see some cooling from the first week's exceptional warmth, a cold outcome is not assured. Indeed, the latest EPS weeklies illustrate the idea that a cold outcome isn't assured.

It appears increasingly very likely that 2022 will become the 14th year during which New York City receives no measurable snowfall through December 31. During the 13 prior years, mean seasonal snowfall was 16.0" (median seasonal snowfall: 16.3"). Just 8% of those winters rallied to see 30" or more seasonal snowfall. 31% of those winters wound up with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Just under half (46%) had 20" or more seasonal snowfall. The lowest seasonal snowfall for those cases of 2.8" was recorded in 1972-1973. The highest seasonal snowfall for those cases was 32.8", which occurred during 2015-2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around December 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +19.56 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.937 today.

On December 25 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.957 (RMM). The December 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.868 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.4° below normal).

 

Hi Don - I hope we do get cold by mid Jan because we’d really be wasting peak winter time.

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10 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that temperatures will cool, but it remains uncertain whether there will be any significant Arctic air through perhaps mid-January. Much can still change.

Thanks for keeping on top of it. I enjoy your write ups a lot. Yes, what is coming up likely isn’t sustainable for a whole month, but we will have to see how cold it gets and if it snows. We don’t need it to be teens for highs like on Christmas Eve.

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This will turn out to be one of the few colder departure winter months since the super El Niño in 15-16.

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This February is the 16th winter month out of the last 21 with above normal average temperatures. It’s also a record breaking 7th warmer than normal winter in a row since 2015-2016. The new 1991-2020 normal NYC winter average temperature for NYC is 36.2°. So this is the first winter after the increase from the 1981-2010 average of 35.1°.

 

NYC

Dec 22…-2.4…so far

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

Feb 21….-1.1

Jan 21….+2.2

Dec 20…+1.7

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and mild.  High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 45°

Temperatures will be above to much above average through at least the coming weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 41.3°; 15-Year: 42.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 42.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.1°; 15-Year: 44.1°

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14 hours ago, CIK62 said:

After the T passes 32 tomorrow by Noon---it may not go below freezing or reach it again till passed Jan. 12.      That would be about 15 days at or above Freezing.       Someone should check on what that record is for the January portion, at least.       I know the record at the other end of the spectrum, staying at or below Freezing,  is 16 days in 1961 with bookend snows.

1672142400-9q8Tpr7oavo.png

But alas.     Go ahead a little more and see the world centered around the 13th.      Get it done here boy or don't show your face in these parts again till next winter.       Hint:   You won't need any Rock Salt by February.

rrwt-1620-nh-gph.png

 

 

pretty sure we’ve done this already in the past five years.

 

We’ve had a string of winters where it just shuts down for two weeks.

 

either way, with the shut out in December coupled with this, this is a throwaway winter in terms of snowfall…unless something unprecedented occurs

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14 hours ago, CIK62 said:

After the T passes 32 tomorrow by Noon---it may not go below freezing or reach it again till passed Jan. 12.      That would be about 15 days at or above Freezing.       Someone should check on what that record is for the January portion, at least.       I know the record at the other end of the spectrum, staying at or below Freezing,  is 16 days in 1961 with bookend snows.

1672142400-9q8Tpr7oavo.png

But alas.     Go ahead a little more and see the world centered around the 13th.      Get it done here boy or don't show your face in these parts again till next winter.       Hint:   You won't need any Rock Salt by February.

rrwt-1620-nh-gph.png

 

 

The January record is 18 days (January 13 through January 30, 1932).

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This was the coldest December since 1991 to have a T or less of snowfall in NYC. Most of the years averaged over 40° for December. So all the real cold came behind the cutter.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Snowfall 
December Temperarure 
1 2011 0.0 43.3
- 2006 0.0 43.6
3 2022 T 37.1
- 2018 T 40.1
- 2015 T 50.8
- 2001 T 44.1
- 1999 T 39.9
- 1997 T 38.2
- 1996 T 31.3
- 1994 T 42.3
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